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When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold?

When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold? »

Volume/Issue: 2016/214

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sohrab Rafiq

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 November 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475552607.001

ISBN: 9781475552607

Keywords: Cambodia, Cambodia, China, Cross country analysis, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Emerging markets, Economic integration, Economic growth, Philippines, Indonesia

This paper looks at the effects of a China slowdown on Emerging Market Economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand) and Frontier Developing Economies (Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., and Vietnam) in ASEAN. The main finding...

Spillovers from China's Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies

Spillovers from China's Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2016/170

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Dizioli , Jaime Guajardo , Vladimir Klyuev , Rui Mano , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 August 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475524260.001

ISBN: 9781475524260

Keywords: China’;s slowdown and rebalancing, international business cycle, spillovers, Global VAR, Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM), ASEAN-5.

After many years of rapid expansion, China's growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on...

Future of Asia's Finance
			: How Can it Meet Challenges of Demographic Change and Infrastructure Needs?

Future of Asia's Finance : How Can it Meet Challenges of Demographic Change and Infrastructure Needs? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/126

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ding Ding , Waikei Lam , and Shanaka Peiris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498321082.001

ISBN: 9781498321082

Keywords: Demographic change, infrastructure financing, financial deepening, financial integration, capital and financial flows, bond, financial markets, financial sector development, bonds, Models with Panel Data

There is a role for Asia's financial sector to play to address the challenges associated with the region's changing demographics and infrastructure investment needs. Enhancing financial innovation and integration i...

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2013, Asia and Pacific 
			: Shifting Risks, New Foundations for Growth

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2013, Asia and Pacific : Shifting Risks, New Foundations for Growth »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 April 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484360835.086

ISBN: 9781484360835

Keywords: capital inflows, fiscal policy, domestic demand, capital flow, public spending

Growth in the Asia-Pacific region shows signs of improving as extreme risks emanating from advanced economies have receded and domestic demand remains resilient, supported by relatively easy financial conditions an...

Optimal Liquidity and Economic Stability

Optimal Liquidity and Economic Stability »

Volume/Issue: 2012/135

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Linghui Han , and Il Lee

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475503883.001

ISBN: 9781475503883

Keywords: financial assets, financial sector, monetary aggregate, Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General, Dynamic Panel,

Monetary aggregates are now much less used as policy instruments as identifying the right measure has become difficult and interest rate transmission has worked well in an increasingly complex financial system. In...

Global Volatility and Forex Returns in East Asia

Global Volatility and Forex Returns in East Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2008/208

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sanjay Kalra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451870664.001

ISBN: 9781451870664

Keywords: Forex returns, GARCH models, volatility, exchange rate, standard deviation, statistics, heteroscedasticity,

During 2001-07, increases in mature market volatility were associated with declines in forex returns for East Asian countries, consistent with an overall "flight to safety" effect. Estimates from GARCH models sugge...

Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments
			: What Works in Emerging Market Economies?

Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments : What Works in Emerging Market Economies? »

Volume/Issue: 2004/157

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benedict Clements , Sanjeev Gupta , Emanuele Baldacci , and Carlos Mulas-Granados

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451857528.001

ISBN: 9781451857528

Keywords: fiscal consolidations, fiscal adjustments, fiscal sustainability, probability, statistics, Duration Analysis, Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General,

This paper investigates the political and economic determinants of successful fiscal adjustment in 25 emerging market economies from 1980 to 2001. The results show that large and back-loaded fiscal adjustments have...

Post-Crisis Exchange Rate Policy in Five Asian Countries
			: Filling in the "Hollow Middle"?

Post-Crisis Exchange Rate Policy in Five Asian Countries : Filling in the "Hollow Middle"? »

Volume/Issue: 2001/170

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Leonardo Hernández , and Peter Montiel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451858426.001

ISBN: 9781451858426

Keywords: exchange rate policy, exchange rate, crisis countries, pre-crisis, post-crisis period, exchange rates

Following the 1997-98 financial turmoil, crisis countries in Asia moved toward either floating or fixed exchange rate systems, reinforcing the bipolar view of exchange rate regimes and the "hollow middle" hypothesi...

Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis

Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis »

Volume/Issue: 2001/189

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zhiwei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451859614.001

ISBN: 9781451859614

Keywords: ACH, currency crisis, duration analysis, contagion, speculative attacks, asian crisis, currency crises, equation, Econometric Modeling,

This paper takes the Asian crisis as an example to show that the Autoregressive Conditional Hazard (ACH) model is a powerful tool for studying the time series features of speculative attacks. The ACH model proposes...

Characterizing Exchange Rate Regimes in Post-Crisis East Asia

Characterizing Exchange Rate Regimes in Post-Crisis East Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2001/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Taimur Baig

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451857092.001

ISBN: 9781451857092

Keywords: exchange rate regime, volatility, Asian crisis, exchange rate, exchange rates, random walk, exchange rate volatility, standard deviation, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions,

This paper examines the behavior of the exchange rates of selected emerging market East Asian economies in the aftermath of the Asian crisis. The results suggest that movements in the Asia-5 currencies (Indonesia,...