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Breaking the Oil Spell

The Gulf Falcons' Path to Diversification

This book discusses efforts by GCC countries to diversify their economies, and takes lessons from other countries that have generated long-term growth.

Estimating Potential Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia

Estimating Potential Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2015/62

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pritha Mitra , Amr Hosny , Gohar Abajyan , and Mark Fischer

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 March 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475545364.001

ISBN: 9781475545364

Keywords: potential growth, output gap, production function, Middle East, Central Asia., growth, capital, labor, tfp,

The Middle East and Central Asia's economic growth potential is slowing faster than in other emerging and developing regions, dampening hopes for reducing persistent unemployment and improving the region's genera...

Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650
			: Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks

Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650 : Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks »

Volume/Issue: 2013/180

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rabah Arezki , Kaddour Hadri , Prakash Loungani , and Yao Rao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 August 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484341155.001

ISBN: 9781484341155

Keywords: Primary, commodities, Unit, root tests, Multiple, Structural breaks, Volatility, commodity markets, price fluctuations, transport costs

In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting a...

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap »

Volume/Issue: 2013/71

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shekhar Aiyar , Romain Duval , Damien Puy , Yiqun Wu , and Longmei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 March 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484330647.001

ISBN: 9781484330647

Keywords: growth, slowdown, middle income trap, Bayesian Model Averaging, per capita income, export diversification, gdp per capita, trade openness, growth rates, Bayesian Analysis

The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we ex...

Regional Economic Outlook, November 2012, Middle East and Central Asia

Regional Economic Outlook, November 2012, Middle East and Central Asia »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 November 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475510812.086

ISBN: 9781475510812

Keywords: exporters, oil, inflation, oil exporters, gas

The outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region is mixed. Oil-importing countries are witnessing tepid growth, and the moderate recovery expected in 2013 is subject to heightened downside risks. For the Ara...

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles »

Volume/Issue: 2012/255

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 October 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475581645.001

ISBN: 9781475581645

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, macroeconomic shocks, international business cycle, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, oil exports, reer

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GD...

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2012/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi , and Maziar Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475597158.001

ISBN: 9781475597158

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, exporting countries, Time-Series Models

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-dr...

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Middle East and Central Asia

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Middle East and Central Asia »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 October 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781616351298.086

ISBN: 9781616351298

Keywords: inflation, oil importers, oil exporters, oil and gas, oil prices

The Arab Spring holds the promise of improved living standards and a more prosperous future for the peoples of the Middle East and North Africa region. At the same time, the region is witnessing uncertainty and eco...

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2011, Middle East and Central Asia

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2011, Middle East and Central Asia »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 April 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781616350642.086

ISBN: 9781616350642

Keywords: oil importers, oil exporters, oil and gas, subsidies, oil prices

This issue of the Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia provides an in-depth look at the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region, as well as the Caucasus and Central As...

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2010, Middle East and Central Asia

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2010, Middle East and Central Asia »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 October 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781589069527.086

ISBN: 9781589069527

Keywords: oil exporters, exporters, oil importers, gas exporters, banking

The Regional Economic Outlook assesses the near-term outlook for each of the three subregions: the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) oil exporters, the MENAP oil importers, and the Caucas...

Commodity Prices and Inflation in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia

Commodity Prices and Inflation in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2010/135

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455201181.001

ISBN: 9781455201181

Keywords: money supply, aggregate demand, money growth, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration,

Inflation followed a strikingly uniform pattern in all countries of the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia during the period 1996-2009, falling until about 2000 and then rising. International fuel prices d...