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China's Impacton World Commodity Markets

China's Impacton World Commodity Markets »

Source: China's Impacton World Commodity Markets

Volume/Issue: 2012/115

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shaun Roache

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2012

ISBN: 9781475503364

Keywords: Oil Price, Business Cycle Fluctuations, industrial production, inventories, inventory, non-oil commodity, Business Fluctuations, And Cycles, energy,

Shocks to aggregate activity in China have a significant and persistent short-run impact on the price of oil and some base metals. In contrast, shocks to apparent commodity-specific consumption (in part reflecting...

Business Cycles in Emerging Markets

Business Cycles in Emerging Markets »

Source: Business Cycles in Emerging Markets : The Role of Durable Goods and Financial Frictions

Volume/Issue: 2011/133

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455259380

Keywords: real business cycles, durables, financial frictions, business cycles, total consumption, interest rates, business cycle, elasticity of substitution, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper examines how durable goods and financial frictions shape the business cycle of a small open economy subject to shocks to trend and transitory shocks. In the data, nondurable consumption is not as volatil...

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy*

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy* »

Source: The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

Volume/Issue: 2012/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi , and Maziar Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2012

ISBN: 9781475597158

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, exporting countries, Time-Series Models

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-dr...

Credit Booms-Is China Different?1

Credit Booms-Is China Different?1 »

Source: Credit Booms-Is China Different?

Volume/Issue: 2018/2

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sally Chen , and Joong Shik Kang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 January 2018

ISBN: 9781484336762

Keywords: Financial crises, Financial cycles, Banking crises, Asia and Pacific, credit gap, debt overhang, sustainable growth, General

Strong Chinese output growth after the Global Financial Crisis was supported by booming credit. This credit boom carries risks. International experience suggests that China's credit growth is on a dangerous traject...

Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Business Cycle Patterns

Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Business Cycle Patterns »

Source: Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa's Business Cycle Patterns

Volume/Issue: 2014/35

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Oumar Diallo , and Sampawende Tapsoba

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2014

ISBN: 9781484306598

Keywords: Business Cycle Synchronicity, and the BRICs., trade intensity, trading partners, industry trade, impact of trade, General,

This paper assesses the extent to which Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)'s business cycle is synchronized with that of the rest of the world (RoW). Findings suggest that SSA's business cycle has not only moved in the same...

Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia

Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia »

Source: Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia

Volume/Issue: 2012/86

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

ISBN: 9781475502497

Keywords: central bank, monetary fund, price stability, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation, Kyrgyzstan, Food Price Shocks, Policy Responses,

This paper examines the implications of elevated global food prices for inflation in select Central Asian economies - Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The findings suggest that global fo...

Inflation Targeting and the Crisis

Inflation Targeting and the Crisis »

Source: Inflation Targeting and the Crisis : An Empirical Assessment

Volume/Issue: 2010/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Irineu de Carvalho Filho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2010

ISBN: 9781451963045

Keywords: economic crisis, inflation, terms of trade, real interest rates, Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics: General, Business Fluctuations, And Cycles, money And Interest Rates,

This paper appraises how countries with inflation targeting fared during the current crisis, with the goal of establishing the stylized facts that will guide and motivate future research. We find that since August...

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts »

Source: Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts : Some Cross-Country Evidence

Volume/Issue: 2011/125

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalia Tamirisa , Prakash Loungani , and Herman Stekler

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455263424

Keywords: Information rigidity, forecasts, crises, banking crises, recession, impulse responses, number of observations, forecast errors, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices

We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of rec...

Remittances Channel and Fiscal Impact in the Middle East, North Africa, and  Central Asia

Remittances Channel and Fiscal Impact in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia »

Source: Remittances Channel and Fiscal Impact in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia

Volume/Issue: 2012/104

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yasser Abdih , Ralph Chami , Christian Ebeke , and Adolfo Barajas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2012

ISBN: 9781475502947

Keywords: Instrumental variables, Panel data, remittance, tax revenue, fiscal impact, Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data)

This paper identifies a remittances channel that transmits exogenous shocks, such as business cycles in remittance-sending countries, to the public finances of remittance-receiving countries. Using panel data for r...

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles*

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles* »

Source: The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

Volume/Issue: 2012/255

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 October 2012

ISBN: 9781475581645

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, macroeconomic shocks, international business cycle, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, oil exports, reer

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GD...