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Global Business Cycles

Global Business Cycles »

Source: Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling?

Volume/Issue: 2008/143

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ayhan Kose , Eswar Prasad , and Christopher Otrok

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2008

ISBN: 9781451870015

Keywords: macroeconomic fluctuations, convergence, decoupling, business cycle, globalization period, business cycle fluctuations,

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets,...

China's Impacton World Commodity Markets

China's Impacton World Commodity Markets »

Source: China's Impacton World Commodity Markets

Volume/Issue: 2012/115

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shaun Roache

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2012

ISBN: 9781475503364

Keywords: Oil Price, Business Cycle Fluctuations, industrial production, inventories, inventory, non-oil commodity, Business Fluctuations, And Cycles, energy,

Shocks to aggregate activity in China have a significant and persistent short-run impact on the price of oil and some base metals. In contrast, shocks to apparent commodity-specific consumption (in part reflecting...

Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization: A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia

Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization: A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia »

Source: IMF Research Bulletin, September 2014

Volume/Issue: 15/3

Series: IMF Research Bulletin

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 October 2014

ISBN: 9781498340045

Keywords: monetary fund, business cycle, business cycle synchronization, housing markets, Jacques Polak, William Hood, IMF Economic Review, growth shocks, housing booms,

This issue of the IMF Research Bulletin opens with a letter from the new editor, Rabah Arezki. The Research Summaries are a "Primer on 'Global Liquidity'" (Eugenio Cerutti, Stijn Claessens, and Lev Ratnovski); and...

Business Cycles in Emerging Markets

Business Cycles in Emerging Markets »

Source: Business Cycles in Emerging Markets : The Role of Durable Goods and Financial Frictions

Volume/Issue: 2011/133

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455259380

Keywords: real business cycles, durables, financial frictions, business cycles, total consumption, interest rates, business cycle, elasticity of substitution, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper examines how durable goods and financial frictions shape the business cycle of a small open economy subject to shocks to trend and transitory shocks. In the data, nondurable consumption is not as volatil...

Hong Kong’s Growth Synchronization with China and the U.S.

Hong Kong’s Growth Synchronization with China and the U.S. »

Source: Hong Kong's Growth Synchronization with China and the U.S. : A Trend and Cycle Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2015/82

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Dong He , Wei Liao , and Tommy Wu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 April 2015

ISBN: 9781484336106

Keywords: Business cycle synchronization, permanent income hypothesis, stochastic trend, structural vector autoregression, permanent income, exports, economy, International Business Cycles, structural vector autoregression.,

This paper investigates the synchronization of Hong Kong SAR's economic growth with mainland China and the United States. This paper identifies trends of economic growth based on the permanent income hypothesis. Sp...

Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Business Cycle Patterns

Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Business Cycle Patterns »

Source: Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa's Business Cycle Patterns

Volume/Issue: 2014/35

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Oumar Diallo , and Sampawende Tapsoba

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2014

ISBN: 9781484306598

Keywords: Business Cycle Synchronicity, and the BRICs., trade intensity, trading partners, industry trade, impact of trade, General,

This paper assesses the extent to which Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)'s business cycle is synchronized with that of the rest of the world (RoW). Findings suggest that SSA's business cycle has not only moved in the same...

People’s Republic of China

People’s Republic of China »

Source: People's Republic of China : Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Selected Issues

Volume/Issue: 2008/42

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 February 2008

ISBN: 9781451816976

Keywords: interest rates, interest, domestic interest rates, international monetary fund, business cycle

Hong Kong, like other city financial centers, has a high private saving rate. This paper seeks to understand what the principal drivers of saving and investment in financial centers are. Cyclical frequency changes...

People's Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Selected Issues

People's Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Selected Issues »

Source: People's Republic of China : Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Selected Issues

Volume/Issue: 2008/42

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 February 2008

ISBN: 9781451816976

Keywords: interest rates, interest, domestic interest rates, international monetary fund, business cycle

Hong Kong, like other city financial centers, has a high private saving rate. This paper seeks to understand what the principal drivers of saving and investment in financial centers are. Cyclical frequency changes...

China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility: Is World Growth Losing Out?1

China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility: Is World Growth Losing Out?1 »

Source: China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility : Is World Growth Losing Out?

Volume/Issue: 2016/63

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 March 2016

ISBN: 9781513590455

Keywords: China&;amp;#x2019;s slowdown, global financial market volatility, international business cycle, Global VAR, volatility, market volatility, financial market, trade, global financial market, Time-Series Models

China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks,...

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy*

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy* »

Source: The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

Volume/Issue: 2012/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi , and Maziar Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2012

ISBN: 9781475597158

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, exporting countries, Time-Series Models

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-dr...