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Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation »

Source: Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Volume/Issue: 2010/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christopher Crowe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

ISBN: 9781455201891

Keywords: Consensus Forecasts, Information Aggregation, Forecast Efficiency, efficiency, forecast horizons, forecast errors, forecast horizon, forecast error, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cro...

Assessing Default Risks for Chinese Firms

Assessing Default Risks for Chinese Firms »

Source: Assessing Default Risks for Chinese Firms : A Lost Cause?

Volume/Issue: 2015/140

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Law , and Shaun Roache

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 June 2015

ISBN: 9781513597584

Keywords: default probabilities, equity, market, Asset Pricing, Financial Forecasting and Simulation,

Assessing default risks for Chinese firms is hard. Standard measures of risk using market indicators may be unreliable because of implicit guarantees, the large role played by less-informed investors, and other mar...

Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Constant Elasticity of Substitution Assumption

Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Constant Elasticity of Substitution Assumption »

Source: Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Constant Elasticity of Substitution Assumption

Volume/Issue: 2000/128

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Antonio Spilimbergo , and Athanasios Vamvakidis

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2000

ISBN: 9781451855043

Keywords: trade forecasting and simulation, reer, equation, equations, statistics, cointegration

The real effective exchange rate is an aggregation of several bilateral real exchange rates with respect to other countries. The aggregation is usually done under the assumption of constant elasticity of substituti...

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts »

Source: An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

Volume/Issue: 2006/59

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Timmermann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2006

ISBN: 9781451863192

Keywords: Global economic condition, forecast performance, and evaluation, inflation, statistics, correlation, inflation forecasts, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Prices, Business Fluctuations

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forec...

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts »

Source: Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts : Some Cross-Country Evidence

Volume/Issue: 2011/125

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalia Tamirisa , Prakash Loungani , and Herman Stekler

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455263424

Keywords: Information rigidity, forecasts, crises, banking crises, recession, impulse responses, number of observations, forecast errors, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices

We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of rec...

Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa

Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa »

Source: Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa : Insights from the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM)

Volume/Issue: 2015/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Derek Anderson , Jorge Canales Kriljenko , Paulo Drummond , Pedro Espaillat , and Dirk Muir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 October 2015

ISBN: 9781513557885

Keywords: macroeconomic interdepedence, trade, investment, exports, economy, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Open Economy Macroeconomics

What is the impact of economic spillovers from China on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)? This is an increasingly important question because of China's growing economic role as a partner of SSA countriesfor both trade and...

China’s Demography and its Implications

China’s Demography and its Implications »

Source: China's Demography and its Implications

Volume/Issue: 2013/82

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Il Houng Lee , Xu Qingjun , and Murtaza Syed

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 March 2013

ISBN: 9781484363362

Keywords: Demographics, demography, dependency ratio, working population, pension, Forecasting and Simulation, Demographic Trends and Forecasts, Public Policy, China, Peoples Republic of,

In coming decades, China will undergo a notable demographic transformation, with its old-age dependency ratio doubling to 24 percent by 2030 and rising even more precipitously thereafter. This paper uses the perman...

Coincident Indicators of Capital Flows1

Coincident Indicators of Capital Flows1 »

Source: Coincident Indicators of Capital Flows

Volume/Issue: 2012/55

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Malika Pant , and Yanliang Miao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

ISBN: 9781463937737

Keywords: Coincident Indicators, Capital Tracker, net capital flows, net capital, capital inflows, International Finance Forecasting and Simulation,

Capital flows data from Balance of Payments statistics often lag 3-6 months, which renders timely surveillance and policy deliberation difficult. To address the tension, we propose two coincident composite indicato...

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy*

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy* »

Source: The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

Volume/Issue: 2012/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi , and Maziar Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2012

ISBN: 9781475597158

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, exporting countries, Time-Series Models

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-dr...

Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia

Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia »

Source: Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia

Volume/Issue: 2012/86

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

ISBN: 9781475502497

Keywords: central bank, monetary fund, price stability, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation, Kyrgyzstan, Food Price Shocks, Policy Responses,

This paper examines the implications of elevated global food prices for inflation in select Central Asian economies - Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The findings suggest that global fo...