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Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa

Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa »

Source: Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa : Insights from the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM)

Volume/Issue: 2015/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Derek Anderson , Jorge Canales Kriljenko , Paulo Drummond , Pedro Espaillat , and Dirk Muir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 October 2015

ISBN: 9781513557885

Keywords: macroeconomic interdepedence, trade, investment, exports, economy, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Open Economy Macroeconomics

What is the impact of economic spillovers from China on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)? This is an increasingly important question because of China's growing economic role as a partner of SSA countriesfor both trade and...

Measuring External Risks for Peru

Measuring External Risks for Peru »

Source: Measuring External Risks for Peru : Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy

Volume/Issue: 2014/161

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 September 2014

ISBN: 9781498327220

Keywords: Macroeconomic Model, Partial Dollarization, External Risk, Macroeconomic Forecast, inflation, aggregate demand, monetary fund, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets

This paper quantifies the effects of external risks for Peru, with particular attention to two major external risks, China's investment slowdown and the U.S. monetary policy tightening. In particular, a macroeconom...

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts »

Source: An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

Volume/Issue: 2006/59

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Timmermann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2006

ISBN: 9781451863192

Keywords: Global economic condition, forecast performance, and evaluation, inflation, statistics, correlation, inflation forecasts, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Prices, Business Fluctuations

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forec...

Current Account Rebalancing and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Between the U.S. and Emerging Asia1

Current Account Rebalancing and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Between the U.S. and Emerging Asia1 »

Source: Current Account Rebalancing and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Between the U.S. and Emerging Asia

Volume/Issue: 2011/46

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Damiano Sandri , Pau Rabanal , and Isabelle Mejean

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2011

ISBN: 9781455218967

Keywords: Rebalancing, Intermediate Inputs, terms of trade, tradable goods, exchange rate, export prices, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

A reduction in the U.S. current account deficit vis-à-vis emerging Asia involves a shift in demand from U.S. to emerging Asia tradable goods and a change in international relative prices. This paper quantifies the...

Policies and Prospects in Japan and the Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region

Policies and Prospects in Japan and the Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region »

Source: Policies and Prospects in Japan and the Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region

Volume/Issue: 2001/131

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tim Callen , and Warwick McKibbin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2001

ISBN: 9781451855289

Keywords: Asia-Pacific region, macroeconomic model, fiscal consolidation, equity prices, government expenditure, government bonds, International Factor Movements and International Business: General, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper uses the G-Cubed (Asia-Pacific) model-a macroeconomic model with rich cross-country links-to explore the implications for Japan and Asia of several shocks to the Japanese economy. The results suggest tha...

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy*

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy* »

Source: The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

Volume/Issue: 2012/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi , and Maziar Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2012

ISBN: 9781475597158

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, exporting countries, Time-Series Models

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-dr...

Economic Implications of China's Demographics in the 21st Century

Economic Implications of China's Demographics in the 21st Century »

Source: Economic Implications of China's Demographics in the 21st Century

Volume/Issue: 2003/29

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kevin Cheng

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2003

ISBN: 9781451844825

Keywords: demographic structure, fertility, fertility rates, children per woman, fertility rate, number of children, Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment

This study assesses the economic implications of China's changing population in the 21st century using a numerical general equilibrium model. The simulations show that lower fertility rates yield lower saving rates...

The Output Decline in Asian Crisis Countries

The Output Decline in Asian Crisis Countries »

Source: The Output Decline in Asian Crisis Countries : Investment Aspects

Volume/Issue: 2002/25

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Joshua Greene

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2002

ISBN: 9781451844276

Keywords: output decline, asian crisis, balance sheet, private capital, private capital flows, private investment, capital flows, capital inflows, Macroeconomics: Production, Macroeconomics: Consumption

This paper examines whether capital outflows may have contributed to output declines during the Asian Crisis by reducing the financing available for domestic investment. Panel data regressions suggest a positive, s...

International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress

International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress »

Source: International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress

Volume/Issue: 2010/124

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Papa N'Diaye , Dale Gray , Natalia Tamirisa , Hiroko Oura , and Qianying Chen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2010

ISBN: 9781455200832

Keywords: bank, corporate, distress, GVAR, financial, international, probability, bank distress, probabilities, bank default

The paper evaluates how increases in banks' and nonfinancial corporates' default risk are transmitted in the global economy, using in a vector autoregression model for 30 advanced and emerging economies for the per...

Business Cycles in Emerging Markets

Business Cycles in Emerging Markets »

Source: Business Cycles in Emerging Markets : The Role of Durable Goods and Financial Frictions

Volume/Issue: 2011/133

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455259380

Keywords: real business cycles, durables, financial frictions, business cycles, total consumption, interest rates, business cycle, elasticity of substitution, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper examines how durable goods and financial frictions shape the business cycle of a small open economy subject to shocks to trend and transitory shocks. In the data, nondurable consumption is not as volatil...