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Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information1

Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information1 »

Source: Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information

Volume/Issue: 2012/19

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tao Wu , and Michele Cavallo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2012

ISBN: 9781463931810

Keywords: Oil Shocks, Market-Based Information, VAR Identification, oil market, opec, equation, oil demand, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Methodology for Collecting, Estimating

We study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, we classify them into various event types. We then...

Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels

Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels »

Source: Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels : Modeling Sharp Movements in Oil Prices

Volume/Issue: 2010/186

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Malika Pant , Martin Mühleisen , and Alun Thomas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2010

ISBN: 9781455202201

Keywords: oil price, consumption demand, asset demand, speculation, oil prices, opec, oil imports, oil supply, crude oil, Prices

Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves...

What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia? »

Source: What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

Volume/Issue: 2012/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han , and Selim Elekdag

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

ISBN: 9781463936440

Keywords: rapid credit growth, emerging Asia, SVAR, Bayesian estimation, sign restrictions, aggregate demand, domestic monetary policy, inflation, financial stability, What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

This paper seeks to uncover the main drivers of credit growth in emerging Asia using a multi-country structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. Taking a novel approach, we developed a two-block SVAR whereby sho...

Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis?

Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis? »

Source: Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis?

Volume/Issue: 2003/48

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Valerie Cerra , and Sweta Saxena

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2003

ISBN: 9781451846751

Keywords: Crisis, Recovery, Hong Kong, Korea, recessions, asian crisis, recession, probability, probabilities, International Finance: Other

This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variables is used to decompose recessions in a set of six Asian countrie...

Inflation Dynamics in Asia

Inflation Dynamics in Asia »

Source: Inflation Dynamics in Asia : Causes, Changes, and Spillovers From China

Volume/Issue: 2011/257

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carolina Osorio Buitron , and Filiz Unsal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

ISBN: 9781463923969

Keywords: Monetary policy, Inflation, Global VAR (GVAR), inflation dynamics, money supply, monetary shocks, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, International Policy Coordination and Transmission

The perception that Asia's inflation dynamics is driven by idiosyncratic supply shocks implies, as a corollary, that there is little scope for a policy reaction to a build-up of inflationary pressures. However, Asi...

Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information

Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information »

Volume/Issue: 2012/19

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tao Wu , and Michele Cavallo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463931810.001

ISBN: 9781463931810

Keywords: Oil Shocks, Market-Based Information, VAR Identification, oil market, opec, equation, oil demand, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Methodology for Collecting, Estimating

We study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, we classify them into various event types. We then...

Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels
			: Modeling Sharp Movements in Oil Prices

Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels : Modeling Sharp Movements in Oil Prices »

Volume/Issue: 2010/186

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Malika Pant , Martin Mühleisen , and Alun Thomas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455202201.001

ISBN: 9781455202201

Keywords: oil price, consumption demand, asset demand, speculation, oil prices, opec, oil imports, oil supply, crude oil, Prices

Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves...

What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia? »

Volume/Issue: 2012/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han , and Selim Elekdag

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463936440.001

ISBN: 9781463936440

Keywords: rapid credit growth, emerging Asia, SVAR, Bayesian estimation, sign restrictions, aggregate demand, domestic monetary policy, inflation, financial stability, What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

This paper seeks to uncover the main drivers of credit growth in emerging Asia using a multi-country structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. Taking a novel approach, we developed a two-block SVAR whereby sho...

Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis?

Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis? »

Volume/Issue: 2003/48

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Valerie Cerra , and Sweta Saxena

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451846751.001

ISBN: 9781451846751

Keywords: Crisis, Recovery, Hong Kong, Korea, recessions, asian crisis, recession, probability, probabilities, International Finance: Other

This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variables is used to decompose recessions in a set of six Asian countrie...

Inflation Dynamics in Asia
			: Causes, Changes, and Spillovers From China

Inflation Dynamics in Asia : Causes, Changes, and Spillovers From China »

Volume/Issue: 2011/257

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carolina Osorio Buitron , and Filiz Unsal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463923969.001

ISBN: 9781463923969

Keywords: Monetary policy, Inflation, Global VAR (GVAR), inflation dynamics, money supply, monetary shocks, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, International Policy Coordination and Transmission

The perception that Asia's inflation dynamics is driven by idiosyncratic supply shocks implies, as a corollary, that there is little scope for a policy reaction to a build-up of inflationary pressures. However, Asi...