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World Economic Outlook, April 2019

Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery

The global economic expansion decelerated in the second half of 2018 with global growth projected to slow to 3.3 percent in 2019, with risks to future growth on the downside.

World Economic Outlook, April 2019

Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery

The global economic expansion decelerated in the second half of 2018 with global growth projected to slow to 3.3 percent in 2019, with risks to future growth on the downside.

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Middle East and Central Asia

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Middle East and Central Asia »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 October 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513534497.086

ISBN: 9781513534497

Keywords: Oil prices, Fiscal policy, Economic growth, Central banks, Inflation, cheaper oil, global spillovers, China’s rebalancing, fiscal deficits, CCA

This issue focuses on the ongoing adjustment to cheaper oil and subdued economic activity for oil-producing countries, as well as the weak and fragile recovery in the Caucasus and Central Asia region. It also discu...

Price Dynamics in China

Price Dynamics in China »

Source: Price Dynamics in China

Volume/Issue: 2010/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2010

ISBN: 9781455208869

Keywords: inflation spillovers, provincial inflation, money growth, price inflation, aggregate demand,

Chinese inflation, particularly non-food inflation, has been surprisingly modest in recent years. We find that supply factors, including those captured through upstream foreign commodity and producer prices, have b...

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Middle East and Central Asia

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Middle East and Central Asia »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 October 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781616351298.086

ISBN: 9781616351298

Keywords: Economic recovery, Energy prices, Commodity prices, Economic forecasting, Economic conditions, Spillovers, South Sudan, Regional Economic Outlook, Foreign direct investment, Monetary policy

The Arab Spring holds the promise of improved living standards and a more prosperous future for the peoples of the Middle East and North Africa region. At the same time, the region is witnessing uncertainty and eco...

Spillovers to Low-Income Countries

Spillovers to Low-Income Countries »

Source: Spillovers to Low-Income Countries : Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 2012/49

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Era Dabla-Norris , Raphael Espinoza , and Sarwat Jahan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

ISBN: 9781463937102

Keywords: Growth Spillovers, Low-Income Countries, Decoupling, Panel Estimate, real gdp, gdp growth, commodity prices, commodity exporters, Economic Growth of Open Economies,

This paper documents the expanding economic linkages between low-income countries (LICs) and a narrow group of "Emerging Market leaders" that have become major players in regional and global trade and financial flo...

Inflation Co-Movement in Emerging and Developing Asia: The Monsoon Effect

Inflation Co-Movement in Emerging and Developing Asia: The Monsoon Effect »

Source: Inflation Co-Movement in Emerging and Developing Asia: The Monsoon Effect

Volume/Issue: 2019/147

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrick Blagrave

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 July 2019

ISBN: 9781498321761

Keywords: Nominal effective exchange rate, Inflation targeting, Inflation rates, Inflation expectations, Monetary policy, Inflation, spillovers, co-movement, weather, core inflation

Co-movement (synchronicity) in inflation rates among a set of 13 emerging and developing countries in Asia is shown to be strongest for the food component, partly due to common rainfall shocks-a result which the pa...

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the  World Economy

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy »

Source: Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Volume/Issue: 2012/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2012

ISBN: 9781475504187

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Fiscal policy analysis, Spillover analysis, World economy, Panel unobserved components model, Bayesian econometrics, inflation, domestic demand, terms of trade, price inflation

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a...

3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Is the Worst Over?

3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Is the Worst Over? »

Source: Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Middle East and Central Asia

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 October 2016

ISBN: 9781513534497

Keywords: Oil prices, Fiscal policy, Economic growth, Central banks, Inflation, cheaper oil, global spillovers, China’s rebalancing, fiscal deficits, CCA

Fiscal accommodation and exchange rate adjustment have helped the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) mitigate the immediate impact from large and persistent external shocks, particularly the slump...

4. How Will China’s Rebalancing Affect the Middle East and Central Asia?

4. How Will China’s Rebalancing Affect the Middle East and Central Asia? »

Source: Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Middle East and Central Asia

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 October 2016

ISBN: 9781513534497

Keywords: Oil prices, Fiscal policy, Economic growth, Central banks, Inflation, cheaper oil, global spillovers, China’s rebalancing, fiscal deficits, CCA

Weaker commodity prices, slower global growth, and higher global risk aversion are the channels through which the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) and the Caucasus an...

Caucasus and Central Asia

Caucasus and Central Asia »

Source: Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Middle East and Central Asia

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 October 2016

ISBN: 9781513534497

Keywords: Oil prices, Fiscal policy, Economic growth, Central banks, Inflation, cheaper oil, global spillovers, China’s rebalancing, fiscal deficits, CCA

Population, millions (2015) GDP per capita, U.S. dollars (2015) Sources: IMF Regional Economic Outlook database; and Microsoft Map Land. Note: Th...

3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Safeguarding the Recovery

3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Safeguarding the Recovery »

Source: Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Middle East and Central Asia

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 October 2011

ISBN: 9781616351298

Keywords: Economic recovery, Energy prices, Commodity prices, Economic forecasting, Economic conditions, Spillovers, South Sudan, Regional Economic Outlook, Foreign direct investment, Monetary policy

The near-term growth outlook is broadly positive across the CCA region, helped by high oil prices for the oil and gas exporters and the continuing recovery in Russia for the oil...