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Inflation Dynamics in Asia

Inflation Dynamics in Asia »

Source: Inflation Dynamics in Asia : Causes, Changes, and Spillovers From China

Volume/Issue: 2011/257

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carolina Osorio , and Filiz Unsal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

ISBN: 9781463923969

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), inflation dynamics, money supply, monetary shocks, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, International Policy Coordination and Transmission,

The perception that Asia's inflation dynamics is driven by idiosyncratic supply shocks implies, as a corollary, that there is little scope for a policy reaction to a build-up of inflationary pressures. However, Asi...

China's Capacity Reduction Reform and Its Impact on Producer Prices

China's Capacity Reduction Reform and Its Impact on Producer Prices »

Source: China's Capacity Reduction Reform and Its Impact on Producer Prices

Volume/Issue: 2018/216

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Linxi Chen , Ding Ding , and Rui Mano

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 September 2018

ISBN: 9781484375914

Keywords: China, Asia and Pacific, capacity reduction, supply-side structural reforms, producer price index, Time-Series Models, Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

In late 2015, the Chinese authorities launched a policy to reduce capacity in the coal and steel industries under the wider effort of Supply-Side Structural Reforms. Around the same time, producer price inflation i...

The Global Financial Crisis

The Global Financial Crisis »

Source: The Global Financial Crisis : An Anatomy of Global Growth

Volume/Issue: 2013/76

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Troy Matheson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 March 2013

ISBN: 9781484362013

Keywords: Growth Synchronization, global shocks, global financial crisis, idiosyncratic shocks, pre-crisis, Bayesian Analysis, Time-Series Models, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

The global financial crisis was a stark reminder of the importance of cross-country linkages in the global economy. We document growth synchronization across a diverse group of 185 countries covering 7 regions, and...

Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650

Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650 »

Source: Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650 : Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks

Volume/Issue: 2013/180

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rabah Arezki , Kaddour Hadri , Prakash Loungani , and Yao Rao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 August 2013

ISBN: 9781484341155

Keywords: Primary, commodities, Unit, root tests, Multiple, Structural breaks, Volatility, commodity markets, price fluctuations, transport costs

In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting a...

What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia? »

Source: What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

Volume/Issue: 2012/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han , and Selim Elekdag

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

ISBN: 9781463936440

Keywords: rapid credit growth, emerging Asia, SVAR, Bayesian estimation, sign restrictions, aggregate demand, domestic monetary policy, inflation, financial stability, What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

This paper seeks to uncover the main drivers of credit growth in emerging Asia using a multi-country structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. Taking a novel approach, we developed a two-block SVAR whereby sho...

Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels

Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels »

Source: Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels : Modeling Sharp Movements in Oil Prices

Volume/Issue: 2010/186

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Malika Pant , Martin Mühleisen , and Alun Thomas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2010

ISBN: 9781455202201

Keywords: oil price, consumption demand, asset demand, speculation, oil prices, opec, oil imports, oil supply, crude oil, Prices

Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves...

Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis?

Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis? »

Source: Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis?

Volume/Issue: 2003/48

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Valerie Cerra , and Sweta Saxena

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2003

ISBN: 9781451846751

Keywords: Crisis, Recovery, Hong Kong, Korea, recessions, asian crisis, recession, probability, probabilities, International Finance: Other

This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variables is used to decompose recessions in a set of six Asian countrie...

China

China »

Source: China : Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Volume/Issue: 2004/18

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tao Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2004

ISBN: 9781451843675

Keywords: real exchange rate, structural VAR, exchange rate, effective exchange rate, real effective exchange rate, exchange rate fluctuations, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Economywide Country Studies: Asia including Middle East,

This paper reviews the evolution of China's real effective exchange rate between 1980 and 2002, and uses a structural vector autoregression model to study the relative importance of different types of macroeconomic...

Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information1

Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information1 »

Source: Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information

Volume/Issue: 2012/19

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tao Wu , and Michele Cavallo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2012

ISBN: 9781463931810

Keywords: Oil Shocks, Market-Based Information, VAR Identification, oil market, opec, equation, oil demand, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Methodology for Collecting, Estimating

We study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, we classify them into various event types. We then...

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy*

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy* »

Source: The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

Volume/Issue: 2012/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi , and Maziar Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2012

ISBN: 9781475597158

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, exporting countries, Time-Series Models

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-dr...