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Global Business Cycles

Global Business Cycles »

Source: Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling?

Volume/Issue: 2008/143

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ayhan Kose , Eswar Prasad , and Christopher Otrok

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2008

ISBN: 9781451870015

Keywords: macroeconomic fluctuations, convergence, decoupling, business cycle, globalization period, business cycle fluctuations,

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets,...

China's Impacton World Commodity Markets

China's Impacton World Commodity Markets »

Source: China's Impacton World Commodity Markets

Volume/Issue: 2012/115

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shaun Roache

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2012

ISBN: 9781475503364

Keywords: Oil Price, Business Cycle Fluctuations, industrial production, inventories, inventory, non-oil commodity, Business Fluctuations, And Cycles, energy,

Shocks to aggregate activity in China have a significant and persistent short-run impact on the price of oil and some base metals. In contrast, shocks to apparent commodity-specific consumption (in part reflecting...

Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia

Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia »

Source: Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia

Volume/Issue: 2012/86

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

ISBN: 9781475502497

Keywords: central bank, monetary fund, price stability, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation, Kyrgyzstan, Food Price Shocks, Policy Responses,

This paper examines the implications of elevated global food prices for inflation in select Central Asian economies - Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The findings suggest that global fo...

Inflation Targeting and the Crisis

Inflation Targeting and the Crisis »

Source: Inflation Targeting and the Crisis : An Empirical Assessment

Volume/Issue: 2010/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Irineu de Carvalho Filho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2010

ISBN: 9781451963045

Keywords: economic crisis, inflation, terms of trade, real interest rates, Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics: General, Business Fluctuations, And Cycles, money And Interest Rates,

This paper appraises how countries with inflation targeting fared during the current crisis, with the goal of establishing the stylized facts that will guide and motivate future research. We find that since August...

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts »

Source: Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts : Some Cross-Country Evidence

Volume/Issue: 2011/125

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalia Tamirisa , Prakash Loungani , and Herman Stekler

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455263424

Keywords: Information rigidity, forecasts, crises, banking crises, recession, impulse responses, number of observations, forecast errors, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices

We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of rec...

Remittances Channel and Fiscal Impact in the Middle East, North Africa, and  Central Asia

Remittances Channel and Fiscal Impact in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia »

Source: Remittances Channel and Fiscal Impact in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia

Volume/Issue: 2012/104

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yasser Abdih , Ralph Chami , Christian Ebeke , and Adolfo Barajas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2012

ISBN: 9781475502947

Keywords: Instrumental variables, Panel data, remittance, tax revenue, fiscal impact, Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data)

This paper identifies a remittances channel that transmits exogenous shocks, such as business cycles in remittance-sending countries, to the public finances of remittance-receiving countries. Using panel data for r...

Global Business Cycles
			: Convergence or Decoupling?

Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling? »

Volume/Issue: 2008/143

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ayhan Kose , Eswar Prasad , and Christopher Otrok

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451870015.001

ISBN: 9781451870015

Keywords: macroeconomic fluctuations, convergence, decoupling, business cycle, globalization period, business cycle fluctuations,

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets,...

Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels

Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels »

Source: Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels : Modeling Sharp Movements in Oil Prices

Volume/Issue: 2010/186

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Malika Pant , Martin Mühleisen , and Alun Thomas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2010

ISBN: 9781455202201

Keywords: oil price, consumption demand, asset demand, speculation, oil prices, opec, oil imports, oil supply, crude oil, Prices

Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves...

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts »

Source: An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

Volume/Issue: 2006/59

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Timmermann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2006

ISBN: 9781451863192

Keywords: Global economic condition, forecast performance, and evaluation, inflation, statistics, correlation, inflation forecasts, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Prices, Business Fluctuations

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forec...

Sustaining Latin America's Resurgence

Sustaining Latin America's Resurgence »

Source: Sustaining Latin America's Resurgence : Some Historical Perspectives

Volume/Issue: 2006/252

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anoop Singh , and Martin Cerisola

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2006

ISBN: 9781451865127

Keywords: Macroeconomic Policy, Policy Design and Consistency, Economic Growth, Open Economies, fiscal policy, exchange rate, exchange rate regimes, discretionary fiscal policy, exchange rates, Prices

This paper looks at the historical lessons that might serve to entrech Latin America's newly resurgent growth phase. It briefly reviews the post-World War II experiences in Latin America and Asia, focusing on the c...