- International Monetary Fund
- Published Date:
- May 2006
© 2006 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
1818 H Street NW
Washington DC 20433
Cover design: Chris Lester, Rock Creek Creative, Bethesda, Maryland. Cover map: Map design unit of the World Bank, based on data provided by the staff of the Development Data Group of the World Bank’s Development Economics Vice Presidency. Cover photo credits (left to right, from back cover to the front): Chilean woman, Curt Carnemark; Brazilian man, Scott Wallace; Latvian girl, Curt Carnemark; Uzbekistani man, Anatoliy Rakhimbayev; Turkish woman, Scott Wallace; Rwandan boy, Arne Hoel; Yemeni woman and Senegalese girl, Scott Wallace; Ethiopian boy, Arne Hoel; Moroccan woman and Yemeni man, Scott Wallace; Indian youth, John Isaac; Bangladeshi girl, Scott Wallace; Sri Lankan woman, Dominic Sansoni; Vietnamese woman and child, Tran Thi Hoa; Indonesian man, Curt Carnemark. Photos courtesy of World Bank Photo Library, www.worldbank.org/photos. Typesetter: Precision Graphics, Champaign, Illinois.
All rights reserved
1 2 3 4 5 09 08 07 06
This volume is a product of the staff of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank, the Board of Executive Directors of the International Monetary Fund, or the governments they represent.
The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
Rights and Permissions
The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly.
For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com.
All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: email@example.com.
- Abbreviations and Acronyms
- Executive Summary
- Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
- Part I Monitoring Progress
- Part II Governance as Part of Global Monitoring
- Statistical Annex
- Millennium Development Goals
- 1 Global Monitoring Report 2006: six key messages
- 1.1 Lagging regions in middle-income countries and progress toward the MDGs
- 1.2 Beyond improved investment climates and infrastructure
- 1.3 Improving the investment climate in South Africa
- 1.4 The monitoring dilemma: matching the story of suppliers with the story of users
- 1.5 Small-scale private service providers
- 1.6 Building creditworthy borrowers
- 2.1 Education for All Fast-Track Initiative
- 2.2 Jump-starting progress on primary completion in Niger
- 2.3 China’s slow progress on child mortality
- 2.4 Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization
- 2.5 A new global partnership for the health of mothers, newborns, and children
- 2.6 HIV prevention works when it is intensive and sustained
- 2.7 Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria
- 3.1 Africa Action Plan: an opportunity to coordinate aid flows to Africa
- 3.2 Measuring the “quality of aid”
- 3.3 Macroeconomic management of surges in aid
- 3.4 The MDRI and “free-riding” risks
- 3.5 Estimating the impacts of global trade liberalization
- 3.6 Africa and trade reform
- 4.1 The importance of governance in performance-based allocation formulas
- 4.2 Conditions for evidence-based policy: lessons from the PRS experience
- 4.3 Independent quality review of analytical and advisory activities at the World Bank
- 4.4 Third roundtable on managing for development results
- 4.5 Independent evaluation at the IFIs
- 4.6 Safeguards assessments by the IMF
- 5.1 Governance and corruption are not the same thing
- 5.2 The 2004 CPIA’s 16 criteria
- 5.3 Three aggregate governance Doing Business and Investment Climate Survey indicators
- 6.1 Two IMF tools to support fiscal management and transparency
- 6.2 Recent advances in monitoring the quality of procurement
- 6.3 Actionable indicators on public administrative quality
- 6.4 Albania—administrative reform in an unpropitious environment.
- 6.5 Why stand-alone investment projects can be bad for governance
- 6.6 Linking community-based resource transfers and decentralization in Indonesia
- 6.7 How media access can influence development outcomes
- 6.8 The Poverty Reduction Strategy process in Rwanda and Vietnam
- 6.9 The Global Integrity Index as a tool for governance monitoring
- 6.10 Strengthening justice—three initial lessons
- 6.11 Legislative oversight in Africa—a work in progress
- 7.1 Kickbacks under the United Nations Oil-for-Food Program
- 7.2 The Dominican Republic—AML in support of anticorruption
- 7.3 Four pillars of the United Nations Convention Against Corruption
- 7.4 International asset recovery—a complicated exercise
- 7.5 Civil versus criminal law pursuits of corruption
- 7.6 The African Peer Review Mechanism
- 7.7 Improving governance in resource-rich countries
- 1 Poverty headcount by region, 1990–2002, and forecasts to 2015
- 2 Annual reduction in child mortality, 1997–2004
- 3 ODA increases concentrated in a few countries
- 4 National governance system
- 5 Net change in HIPC indicator tracking scores, 2001–4
- 6 Measuring statistical capacity in IBRD, IDA, and IDA-Africa, 1999–2005
- 7 Governance turnarounds: three trajectories
- 1.1 Progress toward the Poverty MDG Target, 1990–2002, and a forecast for 2015
- 1.2 Evolution of investment climate indicators in Europe and Central Asia, 2002 and 2005
- 1.3 Doing Business reform intensity in 2004 by region
- 1.4 The informal sector and the ease of doing business in 2004
- 1.5 Progress in household access to infrastructure, 1995–2004
- 1.6 Access to water, by water source
- 1.7 Primary deficit and public infrastructure investment, Latin America, 1980–2000
- 1.8 Access to various forms of sanitation
- 2.1 Development assistance for education and health
- 2.2 Developing-country spending on education and health
- 2.3 Share of total government spending for education and health, by region
- 2.4 Education unit costs in best-performing developing countries, 1999–2002
- 2.5 Share of bilateral education ODA commitments reported as at least half technical assistance
- 2.6 ODA disbursements for education and health
- 2.7 Annual reductions in child mortality (number of child deaths per 1,000 live births)
- 2.8 Delivery of immunizations
- 2.9 Share of 15–19-year-olds who have completed primary school
- 3.1 DAC members’ net ODA, 1990–2005, and prospects for 2006 and 2010
- 3.2 ODA increases concentrated in a few countries
- 3.3 Acceleration in ODA needed to meet commitments
- 3.4 Indicators of progress: gaps between baselines (preliminary) and targets
- 3.5 Satisfaction improving with donor practices, 2003–5
- 3.6 Strengthening trend in donors’ poverty and policy focus
- 3.7 Lower debt service, higher poverty-reducing expenditures, 1999–2006
- 3.8 Impact of MDRI on debt ratios in HIPC
- 3.9 High-income countries’ OTRI, overall and toward low-income countries, 2005
- A3.1 OECD restrictiveness remains high for low-income countries, 2005
- A3.2 Changes in OECD OTRI between 2002 and 2005: as tariffs fall, non-tariff policies become more important
- 4.1 Gross disbursements by MDBs, 1999–2005
- 4.2 Trends in IDA investment and development policy lending, 1998–2005
- 4.3 Policy and poverty selectivity in 2003 and 2004
- 4.4 Evaluation and the results chain
- II.1 Governance and growth, 1982–2002
- 5.1 National governance systems: actors and accountabilities
- 5.3 Corruption in specific sectors in Europe and Central Asia, 2002–5
- 5.2 Administrative corruption in Europe and Central Asia
- 6.1 Public financial management: a performance monitoring framework
- 6.2 Low-income aid recipient countries with CPIA 13 (quality of budgetary and financial management) scores, 2004
- 6.3 Cambodia: A platform approach to budget management reforms
- 6.4 Low-income aid recipient countries with CPIA 15 (quality of public administration) scores, 2004
- 6.5 Perceptions of service delivery performance in nine Bangalore agencies, 1994–2003
- 6.6 A constellation of checks and balances institutions
- 6.7 The virtuous circle of transparency: from disclosure to responsiveness
- 6.8 Measuring country statistical capacity: IBRD, IDA, and IDA-Africa, 1999–2005
- 6.9 Governance turnarounds: three trajectories
- 1.1 Per capita GDP growth in low- and middle-income countries (by region).
- 1.2 Macroeconomic indicators for low- and middle-income countries (by region)
- 1.3 Quality of macroeconomic policies in low-income countries, 2005 Share of countries falling into each category
- 1.4 Global economic environment and developing countries
- 1.5 Percentage of households with access to basic infrastructure services, quintile comparison (2000–4, latest observations available)
- 1.6 Percentage of households with access to basic infrastructure services, urban-rural comparison (2000–4, latest observations available)
- 2.1 Sharp increases in child survival for some countries
- 2.2 Skilled attendants at delivery, by region, 1990 to 2003
- 3.1 Composition of net ODA: less reliance by donors on special-purpose grants in 2004
- 3.2 Country-level progress on selected harmonization and alignment actions
- 3.3 Key features of the MDRI by institution
- 3.4 Indicative donor commitments to IDA and AfDF over the next decade (Baseline: constant regular donor contributions in real terms—US$ billions)
- 3.5 Developing-country OTRI by geographic region and changes, 2002–5
- A3.1 New regional and multilateral trade agreements, 2004–5
- A4.1 COMPAS master matrix of categories and indicators
- 5.1 Nodes of transparency in national governance systems
- 5.2 2004 country scores for the CPIA public institutions cluster
- 5.3 Intermediate outcomes—corruption versus policy
- 5.4 Governance monitoring indicators
- 6.1 Quality of budget management systems in 25 heavily indebted poor countries, 2004
- 6.2 Participation in the PRS, 2005
- 6.3 KK voice and accountability 2004, 66 low-income countries
- 6.4 Global Integrity Index—transparency and civic participation (by group)
- 6.5 The quality of some attributes of the justice system in 25 countries (by group)
- 6.6 The quality of some direct oversight institutions in 25 countries (by group)
- 6.7 State capacity and state accountability
- A7.1 Global checks and balances: international legal initiatives
- A7.2 Global checks and balances: anticorruption treaties
- A7.3 Global checks and balances: international transparency initiatives
This third annual Global Monitoring Report (GMR) on progress toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) comes with only 10 years remaining to achieve them. It reports good and bad news.
Growth continues to be favorable and has helped cut global poverty, in some cases dramatically. Many countries have stayed the course with sound economic policies, which are delivering results, including some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The volume of trade has grown worldwide, and private capital flows to developing countries continue to rise. Evidence is also emerging from some countries of rapid and tangible progress in improving primary education completion, raising immunization coverage, and lowering child mortality.
The bad news is that many countries are off track to meet the human development MDGs. The gains, impressive on a global scale, are unevenly distributed. For every success story of rapid growth and job creation in emerging East and South Asian cities, there are disturbing examples of increased poverty in much of Sub-Saharan Africa, and among large groups of people in many other parts of the world. In too many countries, infrastructure is crumbling. Urgently needed investment to modernize water, sanitation, and transportation facilities has proven unavailable, and families struggle without access to clean water, or roads that would open access to schools, health care, and markets. In many cases, the governance of countries does not inspire the confidence of investors including, most importantly, citizens of those same countries.
This must change if we are to achieve the MDGs. The principle of mutual accountability—of donors, the international financial institutions, and recipient governments for the quality of external support and for improved performance—is central to accelerating performance.
This GMR persuasively argues that governance is one of the central challenges facing developing countries and the global development community. Governance has gained widespread currency, but its often vague definition has limited its utility as an organizing concept for development, which is what it needs to be. This report offers a framework that defines the parameters of what governance is, and gives us tools—drawn from various indexes—to assess its quality, across different countries, sectors, and actors.
The GMR recognizes that there is no single, unique way to effectively improve governance to reduce poverty, and acknowledges that each country’s path must be of its own choosing. But national customs cannot be a smokescreen to defend practices that rob the poor of better opportunities, and undermine a society’s chance to develop. With this in mind, the GMR provides a governance framework for monitoring and draws lessons from diverse international experience. It presents performance benchmarks on, among others, sound financial management, public procurement, settlement of legal disputes, and openness and transparency so as to ensure governments’ accountability to taxpayers and citizens and to check corruption.
The GMR’s framework for governance is the first step in establishing a more comprehensive system for monitoring governance. More investment is needed in actionable indicators that can help to track progress, generate greater accountability, and build demand for good governance. They can also help underpin long-term dialogue between countries and development partners, which should develop realistic goals and sequencing of governance reforms.
As developing countries tackle the challenge of governance, the GMR also reminds us that the rich countries must meet their commitments on aid, debt relief, and trade. To enhance aid effectiveness, aid transfers need to be more predictable, less fragmented, more closely aligned with needs, and targeted to where the aid can be productively used. This includes better targeting to countries that are tackling the MDGs, and bringing greater flexibility to aid, so that it can cover recurrent costs, such as teachers’ or health workers’ salaries, as well as governance reforms to improve service delivery. The promise of increased aid will be realized only if it is used with sufficient rigor and imagination to deliver improved results.
The GMR reports progress in shifting the emphasis of international financial institutions, including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, toward results management—managing for outcomes rather than managing inputs to the production process. But more work must be done by all development partners to establish a longer-term vision, deliver more resources, and increase support for capacity strengthening in developing countries. With a decade left to achieve the MDGs, there is no time to lose.
Rodrigo de Rato
International Monetary Fund
This report has been prepared jointly by the staff of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. In preparing the report, staff collaborated closely with partner institutions—the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and its Development Assistance Committee, the United Nations, the African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the Inter-American Development Bank. The cooperation and support of staff of these institutions are gratefully acknowledged.
Mark Sundberg was the lead author and manager of the report. The work was carried out under the general guidance of François Bourguignon, Senior Vice-President, and the overall supervision of Alan Gelb, Director, World Bank. The thematic work on governance was led by Brian Levy, with supervision from Sanjay Pradhan, Sector Director, World Bank. Paul Gertler provided supervisory support on the human development chapter. The core team from the World Bank included Halsey Rogers (chapter 1), Barbara Bruns (chapter 2), Punam Chuhan (chapter 3), Ariel Fiszbein (chapter 4), and Brian Levy (chapters 5 and 6). The Bank core team also included Manuel Félix, Brendan Fitzpatrick, Ceren Özer, and Sachin Shahria, who provided significant contributions to the overall report through research and coordination. The core team from the International Monetary Fund was led by Andy Berg and included Anton Op de Beke (chapter 7), Peter Fallon, and Carlos Leite.
Many others have made valuable contributions, including the following from the World Bank: Olusoji O. Adeyi, Jim Anderson, Amie E. Batson, Gilles Bauche, Robert Beschel, Amar Bhattacharya, Christina Biebesheimer, Rene Bonnel, Eduard R. Bos, Jeanine Braithwaite, Logan Brenzel, Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia, Lorelei Buntua, Andrew Burns, Flavia Bustreo, William Butterfield, Sarah Cliffe, Rui Coutinho, Stefano Curto, Angelique de Plaa, Adrian Di Giovanni, Simeon Djankeov, Bill Dorotinsky, Rob Chase, Shaohua Chen, Graham Eele, Safinaz El Hag El Tahir Ahmed, Janet Entwhistle, Christine Fallert Kessides, Shahrokh Fardoust, Lucia Fort, Luc-Charles Gacougnolle, Alison Gillies, Jonathan Goldberg, Bee Ean Gooi, Engilbert Gudmundsson, Poonam Gupta, Christopher Hall, Mary Hallward-Driemeier, Jonathan D. Halpern, Kirk Hamilton, Santiago Herrera, Bernard Hoekman, Tim Irwin, Christianna Johnnides, Melissa Johns, Erica Jorgensen, Ellis Juan, Dani Kaufmann, Phil Keefer, Barbry Keller, Steve Knack, Michael Koch, Peter Kolsky, Sahr Kpundeh, Aart Kraay, Jeffrey D. Lewis, Soe Lin, Saida Mamedova, Julio Mariscal-Pelaez, Susan McAdams, Rick Messick, Célestin Monga, Julia Nelson, Alessandro Nicita, Christine Zhen-Wei Qiang, Shilpa Phadke, Sonia Plaza, Gauresh Shailesh Rajadhyaksha, Anand Rajaram, Martin Ravallion, Francesca Recanatini, Randi Ryterman, Gary Reid, Prem Sangraula, Shunalini Sarkar, Miriam Schneidman, Susan Sebastián, Meera Shekhar, Rick Stapenhurst, Susan Stout, Mikael Sundberg, Emi Suzuki, Joel Turkewitz, Caroline Van Den Berg, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Sona Varma, Luisa Sigrid Vivo Guzman, Kavita Watsa, Jerome Wolgin, and Roula Yazigi.
Contributors from the International Monetary Fund included Emmanuel Hife, George Mubanga Kabwe, Jennifer Lester, Taryn Rounds Parry, Eric Robert, Deborah Siegel, Tanya Smith, Janet Stotsky, Harry Trines, and Delia Velculescu.
Contributors from other institutions included Christopher Maccormac and Manju Senapaty (Asian Development Bank); Ferdinand Bakoup, Douglas Barnett, and Boubacar Traore (African Development Bank); Ernesto Castagnino, Marco Ferroni, and Max Puglar-Vidal (Inter-American Development Bank); Sam Fankhauser (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development); and Brian Hammond (OECD-DAC).
Guidance received from the Executive Directors of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund during discussions of the draft report is gratefully acknowledged. The report has also benefited from many useful comments and suggestions received from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund management and staff in the course of the preparation and review of the report.
The World Bank’s Office of the Publisher managed the editorial services, design, production, and printing of the book—in particular, Aziz Gökdemir, Susan Graham, Nancy Lammers, Stephen McGroarty, Brenda Mejia, Randi Park, Santiago Pombo-Bejarano, and Stuart Tucker, along with Jacquie Ciardi of Grammarians, Kirsten Dennison and associates at Precision Graphics, Melissa Edeburn, and Chris Lester of Rock Creek Creative provided excellent help with publishing this book on a very tight schedule.
Abbreviations and Acronyms
Analytical and Advisory Activities
Asian Development Bank
African Development Bank
African Development Fund
advance market commitment
African Peer Review Mechanism
Asian Development Fund
Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Surveys
Baseline Indicator Set
Country Assistance Evaluation
Central American Free Trade Agreement
country assistance strategy
Commitment to Development Index
Combating Financing of Terrorism
consultative group and roundtable
Common Performance Assessment System
Country Policy and Institutional Assessment
Comprehensive Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy
civil society organization
civil service reform
Development Assistance Committee (OECD)
Doing Business (surveys)
U.K. Department for International Development
Development Impact Evaluation
Debt Reduction Facility
East African Community
East Asia and Pacific
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Europe and Central Asia
Education for All Fast-Track Initiative
European Free Trade Association
Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative
Exogenous Shocks Facility
Financial Action Task Force
foreign direct investment
financial management information systems
Group of Eight
Greater Arab Free Trade Area
Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization
Global Monitoring Report
gross national income
Global Integrity Index
Group of States Against Corruption
heavily indebted poor country/countries
Inter-American Development Bank
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Investment Climate Surveys
International Development Association
14th replenishment of IDA resources
Independent Evaluation Group
Independent Evaluation Office
International Finance Corporation
International Finance Facility for Immunization
international financial institution
International Monetary Fund
Implementation Status and Results
insecticide-treated bed net
International Telecommunications Union
WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation
Kecamatan Development Program
Kaufmann, Kraay, and Zoido-Lobaton
Latin America and the Caribbean
least developed country
Marrakech Action Plan for Statistics
multilateral development bank
Millennium Development Goal
Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative
Middle East and North Africa
Managing for Development Results
Movement for the Rights of Peasants and Workers
medium-term expenditure framework
New Partnership for Africa’s Development
net present value
National Unity and Reconciliation Commission
Organization of American States
official development assistance
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Operations Evaluation Department
Office of Institutional Integrity
overall trade restrictiveness index
Office of Evaluation and Oversight
Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability
public financial management
Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility
Poverty Reduction Strategy
Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
Policy Support Instrument
Publish What You Pay
Quality Assurance Group
Report on Observance of Standards and Codes
regional trade agreement
special drawing right
Strategic Partnership with Africa
small-scale private service provider
total firm productivity
IMF Trade Policy Information Database
United Nations Development Programme
National Union for Total Independence of Angola
World Development Report
World Health Organization
Working Party on Aid Effectiveness
World Trade Organization
One decade remains to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) that the international community set out in 2000. In 2005 the international community reaffirmed its commitment to mutual accountability for achieving results and focused on scaling up resources. In the Paris Declaration, donors furthered commitments to raising aid effectiveness through better harmonization and alignment, and the G-8 Gleneagles Summit brought new aid and debt relief commitments. Developing countries, in turn, reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening governance and pursuing strong development strategies.
Yet the world is still far from achieving the MDGs. Many countries—particularly in Africa and South Asia—are off track. Examples abound of slow or failing efforts: inadequate resources and weak governance contribute to over 10 million children dying annually of readily preventable diseases; only three-fifths of urban and one-quarter of rural low-income households in low-income countries have access to improved sanitation facilities; aid is too often poorly directed; and international financial institutions still emphasize loans and reports rather than development outcomes. In sum, much greater effort is needed to implement the vision of global action and mutual accountability for results that was forged at the Monterrey Summit in 2002.
This Global Monitoring Report (GMR) reviews the efforts under way to strengthen mutual accountability. Greater resource flows to developing countries must go hand in hand with measures to make aid work more effectively. One key element is improving governance, both in developing countries and globally, to strengthen accountability for resource use and for development outcomes. Measuring and monitoring governance, in support of greater accountability and better MDG outcomes, is the primary focus of this report. Monitoring governance can help to clarify options for scaling up assistance and can support broader efforts to strengthen transparency and accountability, both nationally and globally.
Key Actions to Strengthen Mutual Accountability
The report highlights six key actions to accelerate progress toward the MDGs and strengthen mutual accountability.
Favorable growth has helped reduce poverty, but more even and accelerated progress requires strengthening of infrastructure and national investment climates.
Growth of both middle- and lower-income developing countries has accelerated since 2000, helping to secure further progress in reducing poverty. Aggregate income growth between 2000 and 2005 suggests a significant drop in poverty, by perhaps as much as 10 percent. But progress has been uneven, most of it taking place in East and South Asia. A few countries in Africa have had some success in poverty reduction, but most countries in that continent, and some in Latin America, have seen poverty stagnate or worsen.
Accelerating poverty reduction will require greater emphasis on improving the domestic growth environment. Aid-recipient countries, with the help of development partners, need to improve the investment climate and channel more resources to increasing household and business access to basic infrastructure. These are closely related, since access to infrastructure is a critical element of the investment climate, and both contribute to growth, employment, and productivity. Investment climate surveys show that poor countries place the greatest burden on entrepreneurs and have reformed business regulations the least—Africa had the lowest reform intensity in 2004. Moreover, for both the rural and urban poor in many low-income countries, the gap in access to basic infrastructure is widening.
Recent progress in human development outcomes points to the need for more flexible aid, better coordination, and improved governance.
Many countries, particularly in Africa and South Asia, are off track to reach the human development MDGs. Over 10 million children under the age of five die each year from treatable causes. Most of these deaths could be prevented by simple, known, and low-cost treatments. Only 34 of 143 developing countries are believed to be on track toward halving the number of underweight children.
Yet tangible evidence is emerging in some countries of significant progress in human development outcomes since the late 1990s. Surveys reveal that in many countries the poor are more than proportionately sharing in this progress. The factors behind these successes need to be better understood, but evidence points to improving policies and to the importance of higher quality, more predictable, and better coordinated aid to help finance teacher and health care worker salaries and other recurrent costs. Sustaining these trends will require continued support for the aid harmonization and alignment agenda embodied in the Paris Declaration of 2005, and governance reforms to strengthen the quality of services and accountability of service providers.
Major aid and debt relief commitments were made in 2005, but better aid and vigilant monitoring are needed to guard against risks to their effective implementation. Trade reform needs new life.
The year 2005 has been a watershed for scaling up aid commitments and deepening debt relief to low-income countries. Over US$50 billion was pledged in new commitments by 2010, including a doubling of aid to Africa. The new multilateral debt relief initiative will eliminate about $50 billion of debt, reducing debt service by around $1 billion annually.
But these commitments risk remaining unfulfilled. Aid commitments may fall victim to donor-country efforts to cut deficits. Debt relief is intended to be additional but may be counted toward fulfilling aid targets. Moreover, even if aid commitments are met, donors may not fulfill pledges to lift the quality of aid. Recent history suggests this will be an uphill struggle—aid remains poorly coordinated, unpredictable, largely locked into “special purpose grants,” and often targeted to countries and purposes that are not priorities for the MDGs. Finally, debt relief raises the risk of future unsustainable borrowing from commercial banks. Donors, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, and most important, recipient countries need to monitor carefully aid flows and application of the enhanced debt sustainability framework to reduce these risks.
Following the modest progress with multilateral trade liberalization at the sixth ministerial meeting in Hong Kong (China), all countries must provide new impetus to rescue the Doha “development round.” Hope is pinned on new negotiating modalities for agriculture and industrial products, and comprehensive draft schedules for liberalization to be negotiated by end-July 2006. Developing countries’ own liberalization also matters, and could account for half their potential gains from trade reform. Many poor countries are unlikely to gain from liberalization in the short run, particularly in Africa, and new aid-for-trade pledges have been made to assist those that will be hurt. While crucial, aid for trade should not be viewed as a substitute for trade liberalization.
The focus of the international financial institutions (IFIs) must shift from managing inputs to achieving real results on the ground, but this poses major challenges to both the IFIs and developing countries.
International financial institutions have, in the past, largely focused on inputs and processes rather than on development outcomes. Moving to a results management agenda will require a shift in institutional practices—which has only just begun with the new efforts to develop a common performance measurement system (COMPAS) and integrating Management for Development Results into multilateral development banks’ practices. Moving the agenda forward requires making a long-term management commitment to shifting institutional culture, deepening efforts to systematically and transparently monitor performance indicators and to define the set of instruments (rules, incentives, practices) to link behavior to performance outcomes. Developing countries need to build statistical capacity to measure performance and put in place the elements of results management systems; IFIs and donors must scale up their support for these efforts.
Governance should be regularly monitored to help track progress, generate greater accountability, and build demand for further progress.
Governance is an important factor underpinning development effectiveness and progress toward the MDGs. Corruption is a symptom of governance systems failure. The multidimensionality of governance makes precise monitoring difficult. The GMR lays out a framework that identifies governance indicators for tracking progress, improving transparency and accountability, and generating greater demand for good governance outcomes. It proposes a core list of 14 monitoring indicators, including both broad measures of governance, as well as more specific, actionable indicators. While both have their uses, the GMR argues for greater investment in specific, actionable indicators. These include the PEFA (public expenditure and financial accountability) indicators used to track public financial management, procurement indicators, and business climate indicators.
There is no unique path to good governance. Some countries may be strong in one dimension (such as bureaucratic capability) but weak in others (such as checks and balances). Engagement by the development community should reinforce positive momentum where it exists, push systematically for improved transparency, and at the same time enter into dialogue on long-term support for lagging areas. Monitoring can help to track progress across different dimensions, as well as assess the long-term sustainability of governance systems overall. Where governance is weaker, engagement is much more difficult and incremental steps are appropriate, focusing initially on efforts to increase transparency and to strengthen local service delivery.
The international community must support efforts to strengthen governance systems through ratification and support for global checks and balances.
Good governance is not just the responsibility of developing countries. All countries must take responsibility for strengthening global checks and balances and implementing strong anticorruption standards. Since the early 1990s, a framework of global checks and balances has emerged, centered around programs for international law enforcement (anti-money laundering, antibribery conventions), anticorruption treaties (for example, the United Nations Convention Against Corruption), and international transparency initiatives (such as the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative). These systems are still nascent but have made a promising start.
Donors and the IFIs should assist by providing technical assistance and funding to support countries’ participation. They can also encourage the participation of middleincome countries, which loom ever larger in commercial dealings with poor countries. More generally, donors need to strengthen their own anticorruption controls (including through the debarment and cross-debarment of suppliers engaging in bribery and corruption), increase transparency, and provide aid in ways that encourage good governance rather than fragmenting and depleting already weak country systems.
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
Goals and Targets from the Millennium Declaration
|GOAL 1||ERADICATE EXTREME POVERTY AND HUNGER|
|TARGET 1||Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day|
|TARGET 2||Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger|
|GOAL 2||ACHIEVE UNIVERSAL PRIMARY EDUCATION|
|TARGET 3||Ensure that by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling|
|GOAL 3||PROMOTE GENDER EQUALITY AND EMPOWER WOMEN|
|TARGET 4||Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and at all levels of education no later than 2015|
|GOAL 4||REDUCE CHILD MORTALITY|
|TARGET 5||Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate|
|GOAL 5||IMPROVE MATERNAL HEALTH|
|TARGET 6||Reduce by three-quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio|
|GOAL 6||COMBAT HIV/AIDS, MALARIA, AND OTHER DISEASES|
|TARGET 7||Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS|
|TARGET 8||Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases|
|GOAL 7||ENSURE ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY|
|TARGET 9||Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programs and reverse the loss of environmental resources|
|TARGET 10||Halve by 2015 the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation|
|TARGET 11||Have achieved a significant improvement by 2020 in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers|
|GOAL 8||DEVELOP A GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR DEVELOPMENT|
|TARGET 12||Develop further an open, rule-based, predictable, nondiscriminatory trading and financial system (including a commitment to good governance, development, and poverty reduction, nationally and internationally)|
|TARGET 13||Address the special needs of the least developed countries (including tariff- and quota-free access for exports of the least developed countries; enhanced debt relief for heavily indebted poor countries and cancellation of official bilateral debt; and more generous official development assistance for countries committed to reducing poverty)|
|TARGET 14||Address the special needs of landlocked countries and small island developing states (through the Programme of Action for the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States and the outcome of the 22nd special session of the General Assembly)|
|TARGET 15||Deal comprehensively with the debt problems of developing countries through national and international measures to make debt sustainable in the long term|
|TARGET 16||In cooperation with developing countries, develop and implement strategies for decent and productive work for youth|
|TARGET 17||In cooperation with pharmaceutical companies, provide access to affordable, essential drugs in developing countries|
|TARGET 18||In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communication|