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External Imbalances in the Euro Area

External Imbalances in the Euro Area »

Volume/Issue: 2012/236

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ruo Chen , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Thierry Tressel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 September 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475524673.001

ISBN: 9781475524673

Keywords: euro area, external imbalances, financial integration, terms of trade shocks, trading partner, trading partners, trade shocks, commodity exporters, domestic demand, Institutions and the Macroeconomy

The paper examines the extent to which current account imbalances of euro area countries are related to intra-euro area factors and to external trade shocks. We argue that the traditional explanations for the risin...

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts »

Volume/Issue: 2006/59

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Timmermann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451863192.001

ISBN: 9781451863192

Keywords: Global economic condition, forecast performance, and evaluation, inflation, statistics, correlation, inflation forecasts, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Prices, Business Fluctuations

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forec...