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Financial Frictions, Investment, and Institutions

Financial Frictions, Investment, and Institutions »

Volume/Issue: 2010/231

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yishay Yafeh , Kenichi Ueda , and Stijn Claessens

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455209316.001

ISBN: 9781455209316

Keywords: Financial Friction, institution, creditor rights, measurement errors, correlation, equation, financial markets, standard deviation, Corporate Finance and Governance: General, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General,

Financial frictions have been identified as key factors affecting economic fluctuations and growth. But, can institutional reforms reduce financial frictions? Based on a canonical investment model, we consider two...

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation »

Volume/Issue: 2010/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christopher Crowe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455201891.001

ISBN: 9781455201891

Keywords: Consensus Forecasts, Information Aggregation, Forecast Efficiency, efficiency, forecast horizons, forecast errors, forecast horizon, forecast error, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cro...

Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries

Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2010/123

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Magda Kandil , and Hanan Morsy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455200825.001

ISBN: 9781455200825

Keywords: credibility, effectiveness, cyclicality, fiscal impulse, exchange rate, fiscal expansion, Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

Across a sample of thirty four emerging countries, the evidence shows the frequent existence of a pro-cyclical fiscal impulse. However, the scope for countercyclical policy increases with the availability of intern...

International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress

International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress »

Volume/Issue: 2010/124

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Papa N'Diaye , Dale Gray , Natalia Tamirisa , Hiroko Oura , and Qianying Chen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455200832.001

ISBN: 9781455200832

Keywords: bank, corporate, distress, GVAR, financial, international, probability, bank distress, probabilities, bank default

The paper evaluates how increases in banks' and nonfinancial corporates' default risk are transmitted in the global economy, using in a vector autoregression model for 30 advanced and emerging economies for the per...

Inflation Targeting and the Crisis
			: An Empirical Assessment

Inflation Targeting and the Crisis : An Empirical Assessment »

Volume/Issue: 2010/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Irineu de Carvalho Filho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451963045.001

ISBN: 9781451963045

Keywords: economic crisis, inflation, terms of trade, real interest rates, Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics: General, Business Fluctuations, And Cycles, money And Interest Rates,

This paper appraises how countries with inflation targeting fared during the current crisis, with the goal of establishing the stylized facts that will guide and motivate future research. We find that since August...

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts »

Volume/Issue: 2006/59

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Timmermann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451863192.001

ISBN: 9781451863192

Keywords: Global economic condition, forecast performance, and evaluation, inflation, statistics, correlation, inflation forecasts, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Prices, Business Fluctuations

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forec...

Controlled Capital Account Liberalization
			: A Proposal

Controlled Capital Account Liberalization : A Proposal »

Volume/Issue: 2005/7

Series: IMF Policy Discussion Papers

Author(s): Eswar Prasad , and Raghuram Rajan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451975741.003

ISBN: 9781451975741

Keywords: Capital account liberalization, Capital controls, Capital inflows, Reserves, Foreign exchange reserves, International finance, closed-end mutual fund, international portfolio diversification, capital account, capital outflows

In this paper, we develop a proposal for a controlled approach to capital account liberalization for economies experiencing large capital inflows. The proposal essentially involves securitizing a portion of capital...

Who is Still Haunted by the Specter of Communism? Explaining Relative Output Contractions Under Transition

Who is Still Haunted by the Specter of Communism? Explaining Relative Output Contractions Under Transition »

Volume/Issue: 2005/68

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Katrin Elborgh-Woytek , and Julian Berengaut

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451860870.001

ISBN: 9781451860870

Keywords: Commonwealth of Independent States, CIS, transition economies, instrumental variable, transition countries, statistic, Comparative Studies of Countries, Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: General, Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving

The paper analyzes the initial output decline in transition economies by estimating a crosssection model stressing two major factors-conflicts and the legacies of the Soviet period. We link the Soviet legacies in p...

How Big Are the Benefits of Economic Diversification? Evidence from Earthquakes

How Big Are the Benefits of Economic Diversification? Evidence from Earthquakes »

Volume/Issue: 2005/48

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rodney Ramcharan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451860672.001

ISBN: 9781451860672

Keywords: Risk, diversification, earthquakes, earthquake, disasters, epidemiology of disasters, Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment

Economic activity is risky. Returns across economic sectors can be highly variable, potentially causing costly adjustments to consumption. However, when returns are imperfectly correlated across sectors and insuran...

The Role of Monthly Economic Statistical Bulletins

The Role of Monthly Economic Statistical Bulletins »

Volume/Issue: 2002/9

Series: IMF Policy Discussion Papers

Author(s): Claudia Dziobek , and Mei Jin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451970562.003

ISBN: 9781451970562

Keywords: Central banks and their policies, Technical Assistance, Economic information, statistical capacity building, central banks, central bank, balance of payments, industrial countries, government debt, Relation of Economics to Social Values

Monthly economic statistical bulletins issued by central banks and national statistical offices, the focus of this study, are well established in countries with advanced statistical systems. Such bulletins present...