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Slowdown in Emerging Markets
			: Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead?

Slowdown in Emerging Markets : Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/205

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Evridiki Tsounta

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 November 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498304719.001

ISBN: 9781498304719

Keywords: potential growth, emerging market economies, growth, growth rate, capital, tfp, labor, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

Following very strong growth during the period 2000-12, emerging market economies (EMEs) experienced a slowdown in the last couple of years. This paper examines the supply-side drivers of the strong growth performa...

Growth
			: Now and Forever?

Growth : Now and Forever? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/117

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Giang Ho , and Paolo Mauro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498309820.001

ISBN: 9781498309820

Keywords: growth forecast, optimism bias, forecast horizon, economic growth, growth forecasts, growth rates, growth rate, economic growth forecasts,

Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Ba...

Debt and Growth
			: Is There a Magic Threshold?

Debt and Growth : Is There a Magic Threshold? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/34

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrea Pescatori , Damiano Sandri , and John Simon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484306444.001

ISBN: 9781484306444

Keywords: growth, gdp growth, debt thresholds, debt ratio, growth rate, General,

Using a novel empirical approach and an extensive dataset developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department of the IMF, we find no evidence of any particular debt threshold above which medium-term growth prospects are dra...

Potential Growth in Emerging Asia

Potential Growth in Emerging Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2014/2

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rahul Anand , Kevin Cheng , Sidra Rehman , and Longmei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 January 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484345726.001

ISBN: 9781484345726

Keywords: potential growth, emerging Asia, tfp, unemployment, growth rate, growth accounting, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

Using three distinct approaches-statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model- this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philipp...

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap »

Volume/Issue: 2013/71

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shekhar Aiyar , Romain Duval , Damien Puy , Yiqun Wu , and Longmei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 March 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484330647.001

ISBN: 9781484330647

Keywords: growth, slowdown, middle income trap, Bayesian Model Averaging, per capita income, export diversification, gdp per capita, trade openness, growth rates, Bayesian Analysis

The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we ex...

Japan out of the Lost Decade
			: Divine Wind or Firms' Effort?

Japan out of the Lost Decade : Divine Wind or Firms' Effort? »

Volume/Issue: 2012/171

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ichiro Tokutsu , Kazuo Ogawa , and Mika Saito

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475505191.001

ISBN: 9781475505191

Keywords: Lost Decade, Export, Price-Cost Margin, tfp, exporters, growth rate, export price, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Country and Industry Studies of Trade,

A surge of exports in the 2000s helped Japan exit the severe decade-long stagnation known as the lost decade. Using panel data of Japanese exporting firms, we examine the sources of the export surge during this per...

Russia's Output Collapse and Recovery
			: Evidence from the Post-Soviet Transition

Russia's Output Collapse and Recovery : Evidence from the Post-Soviet Transition »

Volume/Issue: 2010/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eteri Kvintradze

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451982596.001

ISBN: 9781451982596

Keywords: Russia and Growth Transition, transition period, growth rates, growth accounting, tfp,

The health of the Russian economy still depends heavily on natural resource revenues. The history of the economic collapse and recovery in 1970-2004 provides new evidence on the sources of Russian economic growth,...

Do the Gulf Oil-Producing Countries Influence Regional Growth? The Impact of Financial and Remittance Flows

Do the Gulf Oil-Producing Countries Influence Regional Growth? The Impact of Financial and Remittance Flows »

Volume/Issue: 2008/167

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nadeem Ilahi , and Riham Shendy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451870251.001

ISBN: 9781451870251

Keywords: Business cycle, growth linkages, North, South, GCC, regional linkage, decoupling, divergence, convergence, remittance

This paper tests the association between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries' financial and remittance outflows and regional growth in the Middle East. The findings, based on 35-year panel data, indicate t...

Real and Financial Sector Linkages in China and India

Real and Financial Sector Linkages in China and India »

Volume/Issue: 2008/95

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jahangir Aziz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451869569.001

ISBN: 9781451869569

Keywords: Growth accounting, financial distortions, financial reforms, cost of capital, gnp, capital income, growth rate, growth model,

In the spirit of what is known as business cycle accounting, this paper finds that the investment wedge-the gap between household's rate of intertemporal substitution and the marginal product of capital-is large an...

The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa
			: Benchmarking the Constraints

The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa : Benchmarking the Constraints »

Volume/Issue: 2007/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Arvind Subramanian , Jonathan Ostry , and Simon Johnson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451866162.001

ISBN: 9781451866162

Keywords: Sustained growth, constraints, benchmark, gdp growth, growth rates, trade policies, gdp per capita, Economic Development: General, Economic Development: Regional, Urban

A dozen countries had weak institutions in 1960 and yet sustained high rates of growth subsequently. We use data on their characteristics early in the growth process to create benchmarks with which to evaluate pote...