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Asset Price Bubbles
			: A Selective Survey

Asset Price Bubbles : A Selective Survey »

Volume/Issue: 2013/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anna Scherbina

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 February 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475515299.001

ISBN: 9781475515299

Keywords: Bubbles, Limits to Arbitrage, stock market, discount rate, mortgage, cash flows, financial economics, General,

Why do asset price bubbles continue to appear in various markets? This paper provides an overview of recent literature on bubbles, with significant attention given to behavioral models and rational models with fric...

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2012/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi , and Maziar Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475597158.001

ISBN: 9781475597158

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, exporting countries, Time-Series Models

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-dr...

Determinants of Growth Spells
			: Is Africa Different?

Determinants of Growth Spells : Is Africa Different? »

Volume/Issue: 2012/227

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Charalambos Tsangarides

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475510225.001

ISBN: 9781475510225

Keywords: International Growth, survival analysis, robustness, Bayesian Model Averaging, terms of trade, inflation, trade growth, per capita income, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General

Do growth spells in Africa end because of bad realizations of the same factors that influence growth spells in the rest of the world, or because of different factors altogether? To answer this question, we examine...

Donor Competition for Aid Impact, and Aid Fragmentation

Donor Competition for Aid Impact, and Aid Fragmentation »

Volume/Issue: 2012/204

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kurt Annen , and Luc Moers

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475505542.001

ISBN: 9781475505542

Keywords: Aid Effectiveness, Aid Fragmentation, Donor Competition, Donor Coordination, humanitarian aid, aid coordination, foreign investment, Analysis of Collective Decision-Making: General,

This paper shows that donors that maximize relative aid impact spread their budgets across many recipient countries in a unique Nash equilibrium, explaining aid fragmentation. This equilibrium may be inefficient ev...

Japan out of the Lost Decade
			: Divine Wind or Firms' Effort?

Japan out of the Lost Decade : Divine Wind or Firms' Effort? »

Volume/Issue: 2012/171

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ichiro Tokutsu , Kazuo Ogawa , and Mika Saito

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475505191.001

ISBN: 9781475505191

Keywords: Lost Decade, Export, Price-Cost Margin, tfp, exporters, growth rate, export price, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Country and Industry Studies of Trade,

A surge of exports in the 2000s helped Japan exit the severe decade-long stagnation known as the lost decade. Using panel data of Japanese exporting firms, we examine the sources of the export surge during this per...

Assessing Systemic Trade Interconnectedness 
			: An Empirical Approach

Assessing Systemic Trade Interconnectedness : An Empirical Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2011/214

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexander Massara , and Luca Errico

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463902964.001

ISBN: 9781463902964

Keywords: systemic, DOTS, network analysis, cross-border spillovers, contagion, trade sector, global trade, financial sector, trading partners, Neural Networks and Related Topics

The paper focuses on systemically important jurisdictions in the global trade network, complementing recent IMF work on systemically important financial sectors. Using the IMF's Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS)...

Unforeseen Events Wait Lurking
			: Estimating Policy Spillovers From U.S. to Foreign Asset Prices

Unforeseen Events Wait Lurking : Estimating Policy Spillovers From U.S. to Foreign Asset Prices »

Volume/Issue: 2011/183

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , and Trung Bui

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781462309290.001

ISBN: 9781462309290

Keywords: Event studies, policy announcements, interntational asset price transmission, bond yields, bond, foreign bond, equity prices, commodity prices, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, Corporate Finance and Governance: Government Policy and Regulation,

Event studies are used to analyze the impact of U.S. financial, fiscal, and monetary policies from US to foreign asset prices across a range of G20 countries and Switzerland. The initial announcement that the Admin...

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts
			: Some Cross-Country Evidence

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts : Some Cross-Country Evidence »

Volume/Issue: 2011/125

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalia Tamirisa , Prakash Loungani , and Herman Stekler

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455263424.001

ISBN: 9781455263424

Keywords: Information rigidity, forecasts, crises, banking crises, recession, impulse responses, number of observations, forecast errors, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices

We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of rec...

Precautionary Savings and Global Imbalances in World General Equilibrium

Precautionary Savings and Global Imbalances in World General Equilibrium »

Volume/Issue: 2011/122

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Damiano Sandri

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455263394.001

ISBN: 9781455263394

Keywords: interest rate, interest, current account, foreign assets, net foreign assets, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Volatility,

In this paper we assess the implications of precautionary savings for global imbalances by considering a world economy model composed by the US, the Euro Area, Japan, China, oil-exporting countries, and the rest of...

The Great Rebalancing Act
			: Can Investment Be a Lever in Asia?

The Great Rebalancing Act : Can Investment Be a Lever in Asia? »

Volume/Issue: 2011/35

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455217915.001

ISBN: 9781455217915

Keywords: Rebalancing, financing constraints, private investment, capital goods, investment spending, investment rate, venture capital, Economywide Country Studies: Asia including Middle East,

Ensuring stable growth in the postcrisis world economy will require a rebalancing of economic activity in several countries. In Asia's export-dependent economies, this entails relying more on private domestic deman...