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Growth
			: Now and Forever?

Growth : Now and Forever? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/117

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Giang Ho , and Paolo Mauro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498309820.001

ISBN: 9781498309820

Keywords: growth forecast, optimism bias, forecast horizon, economic growth, growth forecasts, growth rates, growth rate, economic growth forecasts,

Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Ba...

Debt and Growth
			: Is There a Magic Threshold?

Debt and Growth : Is There a Magic Threshold? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/34

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrea Pescatori , Damiano Sandri , and John Simon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484306444.001

ISBN: 9781484306444

Keywords: growth, gdp growth, debt thresholds, debt ratio, growth rate, General,

Using a novel empirical approach and an extensive dataset developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department of the IMF, we find no evidence of any particular debt threshold above which medium-term growth prospects are dra...

The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology

The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology »

Volume/Issue: 2013/272

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Steven Phillips , Luis Catão , Luca Ricci , Rudolfs Bems , Mitali Das , Julian Di Giovanni , Filiz Unsal , Marola Castillo , Jungjin Lee , Jair Rodriguez , and Mauricio Vargas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 December 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484346686.001

ISBN: 9781484346686

Keywords: net foreign assets, current accounts, private credit, reserve currency, current account balances, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Policy Coordination and Transmission,

The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has been developed by the IMF's Research Department as a successor to the CGER methodology for assessing current accounts and exchange rates in a multilaterally con...

Asset Price Bubbles
			: A Selective Survey

Asset Price Bubbles : A Selective Survey »

Volume/Issue: 2013/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anna Scherbina

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 February 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475515299.001

ISBN: 9781475515299

Keywords: Bubbles, Limits to Arbitrage, stock market, discount rate, mortgage, cash flows, financial economics, General,

Why do asset price bubbles continue to appear in various markets? This paper provides an overview of recent literature on bubbles, with significant attention given to behavioral models and rational models with fric...

The Rising Resilience of Emerging Market and Developing Economies

The Rising Resilience of Emerging Market and Developing Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2012/300

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Abdul Abiad , John Bluedorn , Jaime Guajardo , and Petia Topalova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 December 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475584851.001

ISBN: 9781475584851

Keywords: low-income countries, growth, expansion, recovery, inflation, external shocks, domestic shocks, trade openness, low inflation, General

Economic performance in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) improved substantially over the past twenty years. The past decade was particularly good-for the first time EMDEs spent more time in exp...

The Evolution of Asian Financial Linkages
			: Key Determinants and the Role of Policy

The Evolution of Asian Financial Linkages : Key Determinants and the Role of Policy »

Volume/Issue: 2012/262

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Selim Elekdag , Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul , and Yiqun Wu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475588682.001

ISBN: 9781475588682

Keywords: financial linkages, beta, global financial crisis, macroeconomic policies, financial markets, equity market, financial crisis, General,

This paper examines how Asian financial linkages with systemic economies have changed over time. After developing a factor model, it estimates Asian financial sensitivities to systemic economies, and then seeks to...

The Domestic Credit Supply Response to International Bank Deleveraging
			: Is Asia Different?

The Domestic Credit Supply Response to International Bank Deleveraging : Is Asia Different? »

Volume/Issue: 2012/258

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shekhar Aiyar , and Sonali Jain-Chandra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 October 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475580914.001

ISBN: 9781475580914

Keywords: Global banks, liquidity shock, cross-border lending, instrumental variables, claims, banking, bank lending, bank for international settlements, instrumental variables., General,

During the global financial crisis, European banks contracted foreign claims on recipient economies sharply. This paper examines the impact of that deleveraging on credit supply in recipient economies, with a parti...

External Imbalances in the Euro Area

External Imbalances in the Euro Area »

Volume/Issue: 2012/236

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ruo Chen , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Thierry Tressel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 September 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475524673.001

ISBN: 9781475524673

Keywords: euro area, external imbalances, financial integration, terms of trade shocks, trading partner, trading partners, trade shocks, commodity exporters, domestic demand, Institutions and the Macroeconomy

The paper examines the extent to which current account imbalances of euro area countries are related to intra-euro area factors and to external trade shocks. We argue that the traditional explanations for the risin...

Can Policies Affect Employment Intensity of Growth? A Cross-Country Analysis

Can Policies Affect Employment Intensity of Growth? A Cross-Country Analysis »

Volume/Issue: 2012/218

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Davide Furceri , Ernesto Crivelli , and Joël Toujas-Bernate

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475505689.001

ISBN: 9781475505689

Keywords: employment elasticities, structural policies, reforms, labor market, labor market policies, Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment and Investment: Other, Mobility

The aim of this paper is to provide new estimates of employment-output elasticities and assess the effect of structural and macroeocnomic policies on the employment-intensity of growth. Using an unbalanced panel of...

Donor Competition for Aid Impact, and Aid Fragmentation

Donor Competition for Aid Impact, and Aid Fragmentation »

Volume/Issue: 2012/204

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kurt Annen , and Luc Moers

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475505542.001

ISBN: 9781475505542

Keywords: Aid Effectiveness, Aid Fragmentation, Donor Competition, Donor Coordination, humanitarian aid, aid coordination, foreign investment, Analysis of Collective Decision-Making: General,

This paper shows that donors that maximize relative aid impact spread their budgets across many recipient countries in a unique Nash equilibrium, explaining aid fragmentation. This equilibrium may be inefficient ev...