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Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap »

Volume/Issue: 2013/71

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shekhar Aiyar , Romain Duval , Damien Puy , Yiqun Wu , and Longmei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 March 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484330647.001

ISBN: 9781484330647

Keywords: growth, slowdown, middle income trap, Bayesian Model Averaging, per capita income, export diversification, gdp per capita, trade openness, growth rates, Bayesian Analysis

The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we ex...

India's Growth Spillovers to South Asia

India's Growth Spillovers to South Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2012/56

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Iyabo Masha , and Ding Ding

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463937744.001

ISBN: 9781463937744

Keywords: growth linkages, world exports, share of world exports, exports of goods, trading partners, neighboring countries, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, Economic Growth of Open Economies, And South Asia,

This study investigates the role of India's economy in explaining the observed growth in South Asia, taking into consideration other sources of growth endogenous to the countries in the region. Since a review of ke...

Macroeconomic Performance and Poverty Reduction

Macroeconomic Performance and Poverty Reduction »

Volume/Issue: 2003/72

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anne Epaulard

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451849363.001

ISBN: 9781451849363

Keywords: Growth, Macroeconomic Policies, inflation, terms of trade, transition economies, trade openness, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Measurement and Analysis of Poverty,

This paper investigates the link between macroeconomic performance and the change in the poverty rate among 47 episodes of growth and 52 episodes of economic downturn in developing and transition economies. We show...

Patterns of Shocks and Regional Monetary Cooperation in South Asia

Patterns of Shocks and Regional Monetary Cooperation in South Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2003/240

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nephil Maskay

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451875812.001

ISBN: 9781451875812

Keywords: shocks, regional monetary cooperation, exchange rate, economic integration, exchange rates, output growth, exchange rate policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance,

The member states of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation have set as a target the achievement of an economic union by 2020. Reaching this goal will require greater levels of monetary cooperation. H...

Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa's Business Cycle Patterns

Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa's Business Cycle Patterns »

Volume/Issue: 2014/35

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Oumar Diallo , and Sampawende Tapsoba

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484306598.001

ISBN: 9781484306598

Keywords: Business Cycle Synchronicity, and the BRICs., trade intensity, trading partners, industry trade, impact of trade, General,

This paper assesses the extent to which Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)'s business cycle is synchronized with that of the rest of the world (RoW). Findings suggest that SSA's business cycle has not only moved in the same...

Russia's Output Collapse and Recovery
			: Evidence from the Post-Soviet Transition

Russia's Output Collapse and Recovery : Evidence from the Post-Soviet Transition »

Volume/Issue: 2010/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eteri Kvintradze

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451982596.001

ISBN: 9781451982596

Keywords: Russia and Growth Transition, transition period, growth rates, growth accounting, tfp,

The health of the Russian economy still depends heavily on natural resource revenues. The history of the economic collapse and recovery in 1970-2004 provides new evidence on the sources of Russian economic growth,...

Spillovers to Low-Income Countries
			: Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets

Spillovers to Low-Income Countries : Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2012/49

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Era Dabla-Norris , Raphael Espinoza , and Sarwat Jahan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463937102.001

ISBN: 9781463937102

Keywords: Growth Spillovers, Low-Income Countries, Decoupling, Panel Estimate, real gdp, gdp growth, commodity prices, commodity exporters, Economic Growth of Open Economies,

This paper documents the expanding economic linkages between low-income countries (LICs) and a narrow group of "Emerging Market leaders" that have become major players in regional and global trade and financial flo...

The Comovement in Commodity Prices
			: Sources and Implications

The Comovement in Commodity Prices : Sources and Implications »

Volume/Issue: 2013/140

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ron Alquist , and Olivier Coibion

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 June 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484378144.001

ISBN: 9781484378144

Keywords: comovement, factor models, factor analysis, global production, agricultural commodities, idiosyncratic shocks, International Business Cycles, comovement: factor models,

We present a simple macroeconomic model with a continuum of primary commodities used in the production of the final good, such that the real prices of commodities have a factor structure. One factor captures the co...

The Impact on India of Trade Liberalization in the Textiles and Clothing Sector

The Impact on India of Trade Liberalization in the Textiles and Clothing Sector »

Volume/Issue: 2005/214

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sonali Jain-Chandra , and Ananthakrishnan Prasad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451862331.001

ISBN: 9781451862331

Keywords: Agreement on Textiles and Clothing, MFA, GTAP, CGE models, clothing exports, exporting countries, export tax, value of exports, Trade: General, Country and Industry Studies of Trade

We analyze the impact of the elimination of textile and clothing (T&C) quotas in 2005 on India. Our simulations suggest that while Indian exports of T&C will continue to expand in the presence of the safeguards on...

Trade, Growth, and Poverty
			: A Selective Survey

Trade, Growth, and Poverty : A Selective Survey »

Volume/Issue: 2003/30

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , and Anne Krueger

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451844931.001

ISBN: 9781451844931

Keywords: growth, trade protection, openness, trade liberalization, tariff rates, trade openness, average tariff, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Economic Growth of Open Economies, Welfare and Poverty: General,

This survey of the recent literature asks: how important is trade policy for poverty reduction? We consider the effects of openness on poverty in two components: the effect of openness on average income growth, and...