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Donor Competition for Aid Impact, and Aid Fragmentation

Donor Competition for Aid Impact, and Aid Fragmentation »

Volume/Issue: 2012/204

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kurt Annen , and Luc Moers

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475505542.001

ISBN: 9781475505542

Keywords: Aid Effectiveness, Aid Fragmentation, Donor Competition, Donor Coordination, humanitarian aid, aid coordination, foreign investment, Analysis of Collective Decision-Making: General,

This paper shows that donors that maximize relative aid impact spread their budgets across many recipient countries in a unique Nash equilibrium, explaining aid fragmentation. This equilibrium may be inefficient ev...

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the  World Economy
			: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2012/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475504187.001

ISBN: 9781475504187

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Fiscal policy analysis, Spillover analysis, World economy, Panel unobserved components model, Bayesian econometrics, inflation, domestic demand, terms of trade, price inflation

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a...

Consequences of Asset Shortages in Emerging Markets

Consequences of Asset Shortages in Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2012/102

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrick Imam , and Jiaqian Chen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475502923.001

ISBN: 9781475502923

Keywords: Asset Shortage, Emerging Market, Crisis, Asset Bubble, financial assets, bond, bonds, asset bubbles, Money and Interest Rates: General, Financial Economics: General,

We assess econometrically the impact of asset shortages on economic growth, asset bubbles, the probability of a crisis, and the current account for a group of 41 Emerging markets for 1995-2008. The econometric esti...

Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets
			: Determinants and Spillovers

Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets : Determinants and Spillovers »

Volume/Issue: 2012/71

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Reinout De Bock , and Alexander Demyanets

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475502237.001

ISBN: 9781475502237

Keywords: Macro-financial linkages, Nonperforming loans, Exchange rate, Panel regressions, capital inflows, net capital flows, exchange rates, Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, International Finance: General

This paper assesses the vulnerability of emerging markets and their banks to aggregate shocks. We find significant links between banks' asset quality, credit and macroeconomic aggregates. Lower economic growth, an...

Exchange Rate Volatility Under Peg
			: Do Trade Patterns Matter?

Exchange Rate Volatility Under Peg : Do Trade Patterns Matter? »

Volume/Issue: 2012/73

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Constant Lonkeng Ngouana

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475502251.001

ISBN: 9781475502251

Keywords: Basket peg, hard peg, exchange rate volatility, WAEMU, exchange rate, effective exchange rate, trading partners, nominal effective exchange rate, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions,

This paper assesses the role of trade patterns in shaping the volatility of the effective exchange rate under two alternative peg regimes: a hard peg to a single currency and a peg to a basket of currencies. I link...

Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information

Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information »

Volume/Issue: 2012/19

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tao Wu , and Michele Cavallo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463931810.001

ISBN: 9781463931810

Keywords: Oil Shocks, Market-Based Information, VAR Identification, oil market, opec, equation, oil demand, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Methodology for Collecting, Estimating

We study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, we classify them into various event types. We then...

Shifting Motives
			: Explaining the Buildup in official Reserves in Emerging Markets Since the 1980's

Shifting Motives : Explaining the Buildup in official Reserves in Emerging Markets Since the 1980's »

Volume/Issue: 2012/34

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Atish Ghosh , Jonathan Ostry , and Charalambos Tsangarides

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463933197.001

ISBN: 9781463933197

Keywords: Quantile Regression, exchange rate, reserve holdings, short-term debt, exchange rate regime, Economic Growth of Open Economies,

Why have emerging market economies (EMEs) been stockpiling international reserves? We find that motives have varied over time?vulnerability to current account shocks was relatively important in the 1980s but, as EM...

Spatial Spillovers in Emerging Market Spreads

Spatial Spillovers in Emerging Market Spreads »

Volume/Issue: 2011/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Salvatore Dell'Erba , Emanuele Baldacci , and Tigran Poghosyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463904234.001

ISBN: 9781463904234

Keywords: sovereign spreads, emerging market, spatial econometrics, external debt, bond, currency crises, sovereign bond, total external debt, International Finance: General,

We use novel spatial econometrics techniques to explore spillovers in the sovereign bond market for 24 emerging economies during 1995-2010. The paper extends the previous literature focusing on spillover effects fr...

Business Cycles in Emerging Markets
			: The Role of Durable Goods and Financial Frictions

Business Cycles in Emerging Markets : The Role of Durable Goods and Financial Frictions »

Volume/Issue: 2011/133

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455259380.001

ISBN: 9781455259380

Keywords: real business cycles, durables, financial frictions, business cycles, total consumption, interest rates, business cycle, elasticity of substitution, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper examines how durable goods and financial frictions shape the business cycle of a small open economy subject to shocks to trend and transitory shocks. In the data, nondurable consumption is not as volatil...

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts
			: Some Cross-Country Evidence

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts : Some Cross-Country Evidence »

Volume/Issue: 2011/125

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalia Tamirisa , Prakash Loungani , and Herman Stekler

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455263424.001

ISBN: 9781455263424

Keywords: Information rigidity, forecasts, crises, banking crises, recession, impulse responses, number of observations, forecast errors, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices

We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of rec...