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After the Boom-Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

After the Boom-Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean »

Volume/Issue: 2014/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bertrand Gruss

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 August 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498363518.001

ISBN: 9781498363518

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), commodity prices, output growth, Latin America, commodity exporters, exporters, commodity exports, Time-Series Models, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Economic Growth of Open Economies

After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011-and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decad...

Development of the Renminbi Market in Hong Kong SAR
			: Assessing Onshore-Offshore Market Integration

Development of the Renminbi Market in Hong Kong SAR : Assessing Onshore-Offshore Market Integration »

Volume/Issue: 2013/268

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): R. Craig , Changchun Hua , Philip Ng , and Raymond Yuen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 June 2014

Language: Chinese

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498388290.001

ISBN: 9781498388290

Keywords: capital controls, offshore financial markets

Offshore use of the renminbi expanded rapidly in Hong Kong SAR as China sought to develop an international role for its currency while maintaining capital controls. This prompts two questions addressed in this pape...

Emerging Markets in Transition
			: Growth Prospects and Challenges

Emerging Markets in Transition : Growth Prospects and Challenges »

Volume/Issue: 2014/6

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Luis Cubeddu , Alexander Culiuc , Ghada Fayad , Yuan Gao , Kalpana Kochhar , Annette Kyobe , Ceyda Oner , Roberto Perrelli , Sarah Sanya , Evridiki Tsounta , and Zhongxia Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 June 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498327664.006

ISBN: 9781498327664

Keywords: Emerging markets, growth, potential growth, convergence, heterogeneity, structural reform, productivity, terms of trade, trading partners, commodity prices

After a short-lived slowdown in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis and a swift rebound, emerging markets (EM) are now entering a period of slower growth. In fact, growth is now lower than the po...

Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization
			: A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia

Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization : A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2014/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Romain Duval , Kevin Cheng , Kum Hwa Oh , Richa Saraf , and Dulani Seneviratne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 April 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475522464.001

ISBN: 9781475522464

Keywords: Value Added, Business Cycle Synchronization, Asia, trade intensity, trade integration, industry trade, trade data, impact of trade, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, Asia.,

This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995-2012. In a panel framewo...

Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa's Business Cycle Patterns

Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa's Business Cycle Patterns »

Volume/Issue: 2014/35

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Oumar Diallo , and Sampawende Tapsoba

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484306598.001

ISBN: 9781484306598

Keywords: Business Cycle Synchronicity, and the BRICs., trade intensity, trading partners, industry trade, impact of trade, General,

This paper assesses the extent to which Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)'s business cycle is synchronized with that of the rest of the world (RoW). Findings suggest that SSA's business cycle has not only moved in the same...

Africa's Rising Exposure to China
			: How Large Are Spillovers Through Trade?

Africa's Rising Exposure to China : How Large Are Spillovers Through Trade? »

Volume/Issue: 2013/250

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paulo Drummond , and Estelle Liu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 December 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484311318.001

ISBN: 9781484311318

Keywords: spillover, panel data, econometrics, export growth, exporters, oil exporters, total exports, General,

The rapid growth in China's domestic investment in recent decades has generated a large appetite for global goods, including from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This paper estimates the impact of changes in China's inve...

Local Government Financing Platforms in China: A Fortune or Misfortune?

Local Government Financing Platforms in China: A Fortune or Misfortune? »

Volume/Issue: 2013/243

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yinqiu Lu , and Tao Sun

Publisher: Bank of Communications/New Finance

Publication Date: 16 December 2013

Language: Chinese

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484335895.001

ISBN: 9781484335895

Keywords: Governance, China, Government expenditures, Revenues, Bond issues, Banks, local governments, local government borrowing, local government debt, local government revenue

China's rapid credit expansion in 2009-10 brought local government financing platforms (LGFPs) into the spotlight. This paper discusses their function, reasons behind their recent expansion, and risks they are posi...

Anchoring Growth
			: The Importance of Productivity-Enhancing Reforms in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Anchoring Growth : The Importance of Productivity-Enhancing Reforms in Emerging Market and Developing Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2013/8

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Era Dabla-Norris , Giang Ho , Kalpana Kochhar , Annette Kyobe , and Robert Tchaidze

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 September 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781616357290.006

ISBN: 9781616357290

Keywords: Emerging markets, Developing countries, Economic growth, Agricultural sector, Fiscal reforms, Manufacturing sector, Labor markets, Labor productivity, Services sector, Total factor productivity

Fostering and sustaining robust economic growth is an imperative across advanced, emerging, and low-income countries alike. Countries will need to focus on supply-side reforms to raise their potential output and an...

Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650
			: Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks

Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650 : Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks »

Volume/Issue: 2013/180

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rabah Arezki , Kaddour Hadri , Prakash Loungani , and Yao Rao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 August 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484341155.001

ISBN: 9781484341155

Keywords: Primary, commodities, Unit, root tests, Multiple, Structural breaks, Volatility, commodity markets, price fluctuations, transport costs

In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting a...

The Comovement in Commodity Prices
			: Sources and Implications

The Comovement in Commodity Prices : Sources and Implications »

Volume/Issue: 2013/140

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ron Alquist , and Olivier Coibion

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 June 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484378144.001

ISBN: 9781484378144

Keywords: comovement, factor models, factor analysis, global production, agricultural commodities, idiosyncratic shocks, International Business Cycles, comovement: factor models,

We present a simple macroeconomic model with a continuum of primary commodities used in the production of the final good, such that the real prices of commodities have a factor structure. One factor captures the co...