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Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation »

Volume/Issue: 2010/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christopher Crowe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455201891.001

ISBN: 9781455201891

Keywords: Consensus Forecasts, Information Aggregation, Forecast Efficiency, efficiency, forecast horizons, forecast errors, forecast horizon, forecast error, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cro...

Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets

Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2010/10

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Udaibir Das , Michael Papaioannou , and Christoph Trebesch

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451961942.001

ISBN: 9781451961942

Keywords: Sovereign default, Private sector access, capital markets, external borrowing, sovereign defaults,

Top down spillovers of sovereign default risk can have serious consequences for the private sector in emerging markets. This paper analyzes the effects of these spillovers using firm-level data from 31 emerging mar...

Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets

Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets »

Source: Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 2010/10

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Udaibir Das , Michael Papaioannou , and Christoph Trebesch

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2010

ISBN: 9781451961942

Keywords: Sovereign default, Private sector access, capital markets, external borrowing, sovereign defaults,

Top down spillovers of sovereign default risk can have serious consequences for the private sector in emerging markets. This paper analyzes the effects of these spillovers using firm-level data from 31 emerging mar...

Global Volatility and Forex Returns in East Asia1

Global Volatility and Forex Returns in East Asia1 »

Source: Global Volatility and Forex Returns in East Asia

Volume/Issue: 2008/208

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sanjay Kalra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2008

ISBN: 9781451870664

Keywords: Forex returns, GARCH models, volatility, exchange rate, standard deviation, statistics, heteroscedasticity,

During 2001-07, increases in mature market volatility were associated with declines in forex returns for East Asian countries, consistent with an overall "flight to safety" effect. Estimates from GARCH models sugge...

Global Volatility and Forex Returns in East Asia

Global Volatility and Forex Returns in East Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2008/208

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sanjay Kalra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451870664.001

ISBN: 9781451870664

Keywords: Forex returns, GARCH models, volatility, exchange rate, standard deviation, statistics, heteroscedasticity,

During 2001-07, increases in mature market volatility were associated with declines in forex returns for East Asian countries, consistent with an overall "flight to safety" effect. Estimates from GARCH models sugge...

The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa
			: Benchmarking the Constraints

The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa : Benchmarking the Constraints »

Volume/Issue: 2007/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Arvind Subramanian , Jonathan Ostry , and Simon Johnson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451866162.001

ISBN: 9781451866162

Keywords: Sustained growth, constraints, benchmark, gdp growth, growth rates, trade policies, gdp per capita, Economic Development: General, Economic Development: Regional, Urban

A dozen countries had weak institutions in 1960 and yet sustained high rates of growth subsequently. We use data on their characteristics early in the growth process to create benchmarks with which to evaluate pote...

The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa

The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa »

Source: The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa : Benchmarking the Constraints

Volume/Issue: 2007/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Arvind Subramanian , Jonathan Ostry , and Simon Johnson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2007

ISBN: 9781451866162

Keywords: Sustained growth, constraints, benchmark, gdp growth, growth rates, trade policies, gdp per capita, Economic Development: General, Economic Development: Regional, Urban

A dozen countries had weak institutions in 1960 and yet sustained high rates of growth subsequently. We use data on their characteristics early in the growth process to create benchmarks with which to evaluate pote...

Corporate Governance Quality

Corporate Governance Quality »

Source: Corporate Governance Quality : Trends and Real Effects

Volume/Issue: 2006/293

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kenichi Ueda , Gianni De Nicolo , and Luc Laeven

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2006

ISBN: 9781451865530

Keywords: disclosure, shareholders, corporate governance reform, shareholder, shareholders ? rights, stakeholders, Corporate Finance and Governance: General,

This paper constructs a composite index of corporate governance quality, documents its evolution from 1994 through 2003 in selected emerging and developed economies, and assesses its impact on aggregate and corpora...

Corporate Governance Quality
			: Trends and Real Effects

Corporate Governance Quality : Trends and Real Effects »

Volume/Issue: 2006/293

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kenichi Ueda , Gianni De Nicolo , and Luc Laeven

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451865530.001

ISBN: 9781451865530

Keywords: disclosure, shareholders, corporate governance reform, shareholder, shareholders ? rights, stakeholders, Corporate Finance and Governance: General,

This paper constructs a composite index of corporate governance quality, documents its evolution from 1994 through 2003 in selected emerging and developed economies, and assesses its impact on aggregate and corpora...

Chapter 6. The U.S. Export-Import Bank and the Asian Crisis

Chapter 6. The U.S. Export-Import Bank and the Asian Crisis »

Source: Access to Trade Finance in Times of Crisis

Series: Seminar Volumes

Author(s): Jian-Ye Wang , and Márcio Ronci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 February 2006

ISBN: 9781589064041

Keywords: Trade, export credit, export credit agencies, debt, credit lines, exporters

Before the Asian debt crisis in the late 1990s, short- and medium-term credit support from the U.S. Export-Import Bank for exports of goods and services to Korea, Indonesia, and Thailand was very limited bec...