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Measuring External Risks for Peru
			: Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy

Measuring External Risks for Peru : Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2014/161

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 September 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498327220.001

ISBN: 9781498327220

Keywords: Macroeconomic Model, Partial Dollarization, External Risk, Macroeconomic Forecast, inflation, aggregate demand, monetary fund, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets

This paper quantifies the effects of external risks for Peru, with particular attention to two major external risks, China's investment slowdown and the U.S. monetary policy tightening. In particular, a macroeconom...

Adding China to the Global Projection Model

Adding China to the Global Projection Model »

Volume/Issue: 2013/256

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrick Blagrave , Peter Elliott , Roberto Garcia-Saltos , Douglas Hostland , Douglas Laxton , and Fan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 December 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484317631.001

ISBN: 9781484317631

Keywords: Global Macroeconomic Model, inflation target, real interest rate, General, Global Outlook, General,

We extend the Global Projection Model (GPM) to include a separate block for China. China plays an important role in shaping global economic outcomes, given its sheer size and trade integration with other key econom...

Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy Transmission in Vietnam and Emerging Asia

Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy Transmission in Vietnam and Emerging Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2013/155

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rina Bhattacharya

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 July 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475554731.001

ISBN: 9781475554731

Keywords: monetary policy effectiveness, emerging Asian economies, nominal interest rate, money supply, price inflation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

This paper provides an overview of inflation developments in Vietnam in the years following the doi moi reforms, and uses empirical analysis to answer two key questions: (i) what are the key drivers of inflation in...

The Rising Resilience of Emerging Market and Developing Economies

The Rising Resilience of Emerging Market and Developing Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2012/300

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Abdul Abiad , John Bluedorn , Jaime Guajardo , and Petia Topalova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 December 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475584851.001

ISBN: 9781475584851

Keywords: low-income countries, growth, expansion, recovery, inflation, external shocks, domestic shocks, trade openness, low inflation, General

Economic performance in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) improved substantially over the past twenty years. The past decade was particularly good-for the first time EMDEs spent more time in exp...

Determinants of Growth Spells
			: Is Africa Different?

Determinants of Growth Spells : Is Africa Different? »

Volume/Issue: 2012/227

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Charalambos Tsangarides

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475510225.001

ISBN: 9781475510225

Keywords: International Growth, survival analysis, robustness, Bayesian Model Averaging, terms of trade, inflation, trade growth, per capita income, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General

Do growth spells in Africa end because of bad realizations of the same factors that influence growth spells in the rest of the world, or because of different factors altogether? To answer this question, we examine...

Inflation and Income Inequality
			: Is Food Inflation Different?

Inflation and Income Inequality : Is Food Inflation Different? »

Volume/Issue: 2012/147

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): James Walsh , and Jiangyan Yu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475504163.001

ISBN: 9781475504163

Keywords: core inflation, monetary fund, central bank, monetary policy, high inflation, Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions, Urban, Rural

There is an extensive literature noting that high inflation can add to income inequality, and a parallel literature assessing the effect of rising food prices on the poor. This paper attempts to combine these stran...

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the  World Economy
			: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2012/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475504187.001

ISBN: 9781475504187

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Fiscal policy analysis, Spillover analysis, World economy, Panel unobserved components model, Bayesian econometrics, inflation, domestic demand, terms of trade, price inflation

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a...

Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia

Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2012/86

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475502497.001

ISBN: 9781475502497

Keywords: central bank, monetary fund, price stability, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation, Kyrgyzstan, Food Price Shocks, Policy Responses,

This paper examines the implications of elevated global food prices for inflation in select Central Asian economies - Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The findings suggest that global fo...

What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia? »

Volume/Issue: 2012/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han , and Selim Elekdag

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463936440.001

ISBN: 9781463936440

Keywords: rapid credit growth, emerging Asia, SVAR, Bayesian estimation, sign restrictions, aggregate demand, domestic monetary policy, inflation, financial stability, What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

This paper seeks to uncover the main drivers of credit growth in emerging Asia using a multi-country structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. Taking a novel approach, we developed a two-block SVAR whereby sho...

Inflation Dynamics in Asia
			: Causes, Changes, and Spillovers From China

Inflation Dynamics in Asia : Causes, Changes, and Spillovers From China »

Volume/Issue: 2011/257

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carolina Osorio , and Filiz Unsal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463923969.001

ISBN: 9781463923969

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), inflation dynamics, money supply, monetary shocks, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, International Policy Coordination and Transmission,

The perception that Asia's inflation dynamics is driven by idiosyncratic supply shocks implies, as a corollary, that there is little scope for a policy reaction to a build-up of inflationary pressures. However, Asi...