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World Economic Outlook, April 2018

Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change

The upswing in global investment and trade continued in the second half of 2017, but medium-term risks point to challenges for future growth.

World Economic Outlook, April 2018

Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change

The upswing in global investment and trade continued in the second half of 2017, but medium-term risks point to challenges for future growth.

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Asia Pacific
			: Good Times, Uncertain Times: A Time to Prepare

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Asia Pacific : Good Times, Uncertain Times: A Time to Prepare »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484339886.086

ISBN: 9781484339886

Asia is expected to grow by about 51/2 percent this year, accounting for nearly two-thirds of global growth, and the region remains the world's most dynamic by a considerable margin. But despite the strong outlook,...

Intergovernmental Fiscal Reform in China

Intergovernmental Fiscal Reform in China »

Volume/Issue: 2018/88

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Philippe Wingender

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484351109.001

ISBN: 9781484351109

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Social safety nets, Intergovernmental relations, subnational government finances, China, Social Security and Public Pensions, State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue, State and Local Borrowing

China is the most decentralized country in the world in terms of expenditures shares, with subnational governments responsible for 85 percent of government spending. Limited revenue autonomy and insufficient interg...

Decoupling of Emissions and GDP: Evidence from Aggregate and Provincial Chinese Data

Decoupling of Emissions and GDP: Evidence from Aggregate and Provincial Chinese Data »

Volume/Issue: 2018/85

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gail Cohen , João Tovar Jalles , Prakash Loungani , Ricardo Marto , and Gewei Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484351000.001

ISBN: 9781484351000

Keywords: Greenhouse gas emissions, Gross domestic product, China, Emissions, Environmental Okun's Law, Kuznets Curve, China, Provinces

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and GDP in China using both aggregate and provincial data. The Kuznets elasticity is about 0.6 for China, higher than t...

Credit Booms-Is China Different?

Credit Booms-Is China Different? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/2

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sally Chen , and Joong Shik Kang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484336762.001

ISBN: 9781484336762

Keywords: Financial crises, Financial cycles, Banking crises, Asia and Pacific, credit gap, debt overhang, sustainable growth, General

Strong Chinese output growth after the Global Financial Crisis was supported by booming credit. This credit boom carries risks. International experience suggests that China's credit growth is on a dangerous traject...

China's Impacts on SSA through the Lens of Growth and Exports

China's Impacts on SSA through the Lens of Growth and Exports »

Volume/Issue: 2017/288

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yibin Mu , Chu Wang , and Dong Frank Wu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484335406.001

ISBN: 9781484335406

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Development, Exports, Growth, China Economy, SSA, General, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

The analysis of China's impacts on the 44 SSA countries reveals that: (i) after joining the WTO in 2001, China has started to impact significantly on SSA growth: one-percent increase in China's GDP per capita leads...

Credit and Fiscal Multipliers in China

Credit and Fiscal Multipliers in China »

Volume/Issue: 2017/273

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sophia Chen , Lev Ratnovski , and Pi-Han Tsai

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484332160.001

ISBN: 9781484332160

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, China, Macroprudential Policy, Fiscal stimulus, Credit Growth, Multipliers, Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary or Stabilization Policy, General, Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity

We jointly estimate credit and fiscal multipliers in China. We use the tenure of the provincial party secretary, interacted with the type of stimulus used in other provinces, to obtain separate instruments for prov...

Reassessing the Perimeter of Government Accounts in China

Reassessing the Perimeter of Government Accounts in China »

Volume/Issue: 2017/272

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rui Mano , and Phil Stokoe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484331651.001

ISBN: 9781484331651

Keywords: China, Asia and Pacific, Government Statistics, Fiscal Risks, Local Government Finance, General

China's official general government accounts do not include off-budget quasi-fiscal spending unlike the IMF's augmented government accounts. This paper argues that the broader concept of augmented government remain...

Resolving China's Zombies: Tackling Debt and Raising Productivity

Resolving China's Zombies: Tackling Debt and Raising Productivity »

Volume/Issue: 2017/266

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): W. Raphael Lam , Alfred Schipke , Yuyan Tan , and Zhibo Tan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484330722.001

ISBN: 9781484330722

Keywords: Corporate debt, Debt restructuring, Asia and Pacific, China, state-owned enterprises, and zombie firms, zombie firms, General, Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis

Nonviable 'zombie' firms have become a key concern in China. Using novel firm-level industrial survey data, this paper illustrates the central role of zombies and their strong linkages with stateowned enterprises (...

Assessing China's Residential Real Estate Market

Assessing China's Residential Real Estate Market »

Volume/Issue: 2017/248

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ding Ding , Xiaoyu Huang , Tao Jin , and W. Raphael Lam

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324813.001

ISBN: 9781484324813

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Macroprudential Policy, Central banks and their policies, China real estate market, housing bubbles, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Housing Supply and Markets, Bayesian Analysis

China's real estate market rebounded sharply after a temporary slowdown in 2014-2015. This paper uses city-level data to estimate the range of house price overvaluation across city-tiers and assesses the main risks...

Does Import Competition Induce R&D Reallocation? Evidence from the U.S.

Does Import Competition Induce R&D Reallocation? Evidence from the U.S. »

Volume/Issue: 2017/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rui Xu , and Kaiji Gong

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484326008.001

ISBN: 9781484326008

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Asia and Pacific, United States, Chinese Import Competition, R&D Expenditures, Reallocation, R&D Expenditures, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Trade and Labor Market Interactions

We analyze the impact of rising import competition from China on U.S. innovative activities. Using Compustat data, we find that import competition induces R&D expenditures to be reallocated towards more productive...