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Australia's Linkages with China: Prospects and Ramifications of China's Economic Transition

Australia's Linkages with China: Prospects and Ramifications of China's Economic Transition »

Volume/Issue: 2018/119

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Philippe Karam , and Dirk Muir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484357200.001

ISBN: 9781484357200

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Australia, Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium; open economy macoeconomics; small open economy; open economy simulation, Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, open economy macoeconomics, small open economy, open economy simulation, Forecasting and Simulation, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Policy Coordination and Transmission

China and Australia have increasingly strong links, especially through trade. These are driven by demand from China for Australian commodities (coal and iron ore) and services (tourism and education). These links a...

Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model

Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model »

Volume/Issue: 2016/219

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rui Mano

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475553741.001

ISBN: 9781475553741

Keywords: Consumption, China, Demand, International trade, Trade models, Spillovers, Spillovers, Transition economies, Economic sectors, China rebalancing

This paper assesses the spillovers from different facets of China rebalancing using a calibrated Ricardian trade model that includes 41 economies, each consisting of 34 sectors. We find that China's move up the val...

Spillovers from the Maturing of China's Economy

Spillovers from the Maturing of China's Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2016/212

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Dizioli , Benjamin Hunt , and Wojciech Maliszewski

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475552225.001

ISBN: 9781475552225

Keywords: Spillovers, Asia and Pacific, China’;s slowdown and rebalancing, international business cycle, model based analysis, China&;amp;#x2019;s slowdown and rebalancing, Computable General Equilibrium Models, Forecasting and Simulation, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Business Cycles

China's transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing' of China's economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) o...

China's Imports Slowdown
			: Spillovers, Spillins, and Spillbacks

China's Imports Slowdown : Spillovers, Spillins, and Spillbacks »

Volume/Issue: 2016/51

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexei Kireyev , and Andrei Leonidov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 March 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513555850.001

ISBN: 9781513555850

Keywords: shocks, spillover, spillin, spillback, network, gdp, revenue, demand, Neural Networks and Related Topics, Country and Industry Studies of Trade

The paper models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China's imports as a result of China's rebalancing of its growth model. A network-based model used in the paper allows capturing higher round ne...

Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa
			: Insights from the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM)

Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa : Insights from the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) »

Volume/Issue: 2015/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Derek Anderson , Jorge Canales Kriljenko , Paulo Drummond , Pedro Espaillat , and Dirk Muir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 October 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513557885.001

ISBN: 9781513557885

Keywords: macroeconomic interdepedence, trade, investment, exports, economy, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Open Economy Macroeconomics

What is the impact of economic spillovers from China on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)? This is an increasingly important question because of China's growing economic role as a partner of SSA countriesfor both trade and...

Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers

Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers »

Volume/Issue: 2015/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexei Kireyev , and Andrei Leonidov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 July 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513542928.001

ISBN: 9781513542928

Keywords: shocks, spillover, network, balance of payments, imports, import, trading partners, Neural Networks and Related Topics, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Open Economy Macroeconomics

This paper proposes a method for assessing international spillovers from nominal demand shocks. It quantifies the impact of a shock in one country on all other countries. The paper concludes that the network effect...

Assessing Default Risks for Chinese Firms
			: A Lost Cause?

Assessing Default Risks for Chinese Firms : A Lost Cause? »

Volume/Issue: 2015/140

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Law , and Shaun Roache

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 June 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513597584.001

ISBN: 9781513597584

Keywords: default probabilities, equity, market, Asset Pricing, Financial Forecasting and Simulation,

Assessing default risks for Chinese firms is hard. Standard measures of risk using market indicators may be unreliable because of implicit guarantees, the large role played by less-informed investors, and other mar...

Financial Crisis, US Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Spillovers

Financial Crisis, US Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Spillovers »

Volume/Issue: 2015/85

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Qianying Chen , Andrew Filardo , Dong He , and Feng Zhu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 April 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475520668.001

ISBN: 9781475520668

Keywords: emerging economies, global VAR, international monetary policy spillovers, quantitative easing, unconventional monetary policy, federal reserve, securities, reserve, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Monetary Policy (Targets

We study the impact of the US quantitative easing (QE) on both the emerging and advanced economies, estimating a global vector error-correction model (GVECM) and conducting counterfactual analyses. We focus on the...

Measuring External Risks for Peru
			: Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy

Measuring External Risks for Peru : Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2014/161

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 September 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498327220.001

ISBN: 9781498327220

Keywords: Macroeconomic Model, Partial Dollarization, External Risk, Macroeconomic Forecast, inflation, aggregate demand, monetary fund, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets

This paper quantifies the effects of external risks for Peru, with particular attention to two major external risks, China's investment slowdown and the U.S. monetary policy tightening. In particular, a macroeconom...

After the Boom-Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

After the Boom-Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean »

Volume/Issue: 2014/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bertrand Gruss

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 August 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498363518.001

ISBN: 9781498363518

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), commodity prices, output growth, Latin America, commodity exporters, exporters, commodity exports, Time-Series Models, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Economic Growth of Open Economies

After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011-and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decad...