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Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts
			: Some Cross-Country Evidence

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts : Some Cross-Country Evidence »

Volume/Issue: 2011/125

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalia Tamirisa , Prakash Loungani , and Herman Stekler

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455263424.001

ISBN: 9781455263424

Keywords: Information rigidity, forecasts, crises, banking crises, recession, impulse responses, number of observations, forecast errors, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices

We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of rec...

Protectionist Responses to the Crisis
			: Damage Observed in Product-Level Trade

Protectionist Responses to the Crisis : Damage Observed in Product-Level Trade »

Volume/Issue: 2011/139

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Brad McDonald , and Christian Henn

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455265442.001

ISBN: 9781455265442

Keywords: Global Crisis, First-differenced Gravity Equation, Time-varying Fixed Effects, WTO, trade impact, import restrictions, trade flows, global trade, world trade, Trade: General

This paper investigates how trade flows are being affected by new discriminatory measures implemented during the global financial crisis. We match data on behind-the-border measures (e.g., bailouts and subsidies) a...

Causes of Asset Shortages in Emerging Markets

Causes of Asset Shortages in Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2011/114

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jiaqian Chen , and Patrick Imam

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455262373.001

ISBN: 9781455262373

Keywords: Asset Shortage, Emerging Market, Capital Market, Regulation, financial assets, interest rates, capital markets, capital account, pension funds, Money and Interest Rates: General

We first illustrate that emerging markets (EMs) face a shortage of financial assets, with financial assets not growing as rapidly as domestic savings. We then estimate the asset shortage in EMs for 1995-2008. We de...

Trade and Trade Finance in the 2008-09 Financial Crisis

Trade and Trade Finance in the 2008-09 Financial Crisis »

Volume/Issue: 2011/16

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomas Dorsey , Mika Saito , Armine Khachatryan , Irena Asmundson , and Ioana Niculcea

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455212507.001

ISBN: 9781455212507

Keywords: Crisis, survey, export credit, surveys, export credit insurance, export credit agencies, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Other, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy,

Global merchandise trade sharply declined in late 2008 and early 2009, and some press and financial market reports assigned a large role for the decline to trade finance. However, the available evidence suggests th...

IMF Applications of Purchasing Power Parity Estimates

IMF Applications of Purchasing Power Parity Estimates »

Volume/Issue: 2010/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mick Silver

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455209538.001

ISBN: 9781455209538

Keywords: International Comparison Program, household goods, Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

The IMF's main uses of the International Comparison Program's (ICP) estimates of purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are as an element of the formula used to help guide decisions on...

Monetary Transmission of Global Imbalances in Asian Countries

Monetary Transmission of Global Imbalances in Asian Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2010/214

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Il Lee , and Woon Choi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455205455.001

ISBN: 9781455205455

Keywords: global imbalance, monetary transmission, net saving rates, dynamic panel, monetary fund, real rates, real output,

The paper explores the linkages between the global and domestic monetary gaps, and estimates the effects of monetary gaps on output growth, inflation, and net saving rates using panel data for 20 Asian countries fo...

Russia's Output Collapse and Recovery
			: Evidence from the Post-Soviet Transition

Russia's Output Collapse and Recovery : Evidence from the Post-Soviet Transition »

Volume/Issue: 2010/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eteri Kvintradze

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451982596.001

ISBN: 9781451982596

Keywords: Russia and Growth Transition, transition period, growth rates, growth accounting, tfp,

The health of the Russian economy still depends heavily on natural resource revenues. The history of the economic collapse and recovery in 1970-2004 provides new evidence on the sources of Russian economic growth,...

Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart

Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart »

Volume/Issue: 2009/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Prakash Kannan , and Selim Elekdag

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451873252.001

ISBN: 9781451873252

Keywords: Fan Chart, Balance of Risks, Option Prices, Consensus Forecasts, risk factors, survey, skewness, normal distribution, equation,

This paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global growth forecast as a working example, the...

Central Bank Independence and Transparency
			: Evolution and Effectiveness

Central Bank Independence and Transparency : Evolution and Effectiveness »

Volume/Issue: 2008/119

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christopher Crowe , and Ellen Meade

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451869798.001

ISBN: 9781451869798

Keywords: inflation, central bank, inflation targeting, monetary fund

This paper examines the current level of central bank independence (CBI) and transparency in a broad sample of countries using newly constructed measures, and looks at the evolution in both measures from an earlier...

Financial Integration and Risk-Adjusted Growth Opportunities

Financial Integration and Risk-Adjusted Growth Opportunities »

Volume/Issue: 2008/126

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Iryna Ivaschenko , and Gianni De Nicolo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451869866.001

ISBN: 9781451869866

Keywords: growth opportunities, openness, financial development, financial globalization, european financial integration, foreign assets, financial deepening,

This paper documents the evolution of measures of financial integration for major advanced and emerging markets economies, assesses whether advances in integration have had a significant positive impact on countrie...