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Slowdown in Emerging Markets : Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead?

Slowdown in Emerging Markets : Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead? »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2014/205

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Evridiki Tsounta

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 November 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498304719.001

ISBN: 9781498304719

Keywords: potential growth, emerging market economies, growth, growth rate, capital, tfp, labor, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

Following very strong growth during the period 2000-12, emerging market economies (EMEs) experienced a slowdown in the last couple of years. This paper examines the supply-side drivers of the strong growth performa...

Growth : Now and Forever?

Growth : Now and Forever? »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2014/117

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Giang Ho , and Paolo Mauro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498309820.001

ISBN: 9781498309820

Keywords: growth forecast, optimism bias, forecast horizon, economic growth, growth forecasts, growth rates, growth rate, economic growth forecasts,

Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Ba...

Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa's Business Cycle Patterns

Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa's Business Cycle Patterns »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2014/35

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Oumar Diallo , and Sampawende Tapsoba

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484306598.001

ISBN: 9781484306598

Keywords: Business Cycle Synchronicity, and the BRICs., trade intensity, trading partners, industry trade, impact of trade, General,

This paper assesses the extent to which Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)'s business cycle is synchronized with that of the rest of the world (RoW). Findings suggest that SSA's business cycle has not only moved in the same...

Debt and Growth : Is There a Magic Threshold?

Debt and Growth : Is There a Magic Threshold? »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2014/34

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrea Pescatori , Damiano Sandri , and John Simon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484306444.001

ISBN: 9781484306444

Keywords: growth, gdp growth, debt thresholds, debt ratio, growth rate, General,

Using a novel empirical approach and an extensive dataset developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department of the IMF, we find no evidence of any particular debt threshold above which medium-term growth prospects are dra...

Potential Growth in Emerging Asia

Potential Growth in Emerging Asia »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2014/2

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rahul Anand , Kevin Cheng , Sidra Rehman , and Longmei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 January 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484345726.001

ISBN: 9781484345726

Keywords: potential growth, emerging Asia, tfp, unemployment, growth rate, growth accounting, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

Using three distinct approaches-statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model- this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philipp...

Enhancing China's Medium-Term Growth Prospects : The Path to a High-Income Economy

Enhancing China's Medium-Term Growth Prospects : The Path to a High-Income Economy »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2013/204

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Malhar Nabar , and Papa N'Diaye

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 October 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484354957.001

ISBN: 9781484354957

Keywords: convergence, capital, investment, gdp, economy, income, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, Asia including Middle East,

China's current growth model-which has delivered steady and robust growth for two decades and lifted some 500 million individuals out of poverty-has become too reliant on credit and investment, and has begun to e...

Benchmarking Structural Transformation Across the World

Benchmarking Structural Transformation Across the World »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2013/176

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Era Dabla-Norris , Alun Thomas , Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu , and Yingyuan Chen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 July 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484359662.001

ISBN: 9781484359662

Keywords: Structural Transformation, Quantile Regression, Panel Data, globalization, gdp per capita, real gdp, economic globalization, economic growth, General,

This paper documents stylized facts on the process of structural transformation around the world and empirically analyzes its determinants using data on real value added by sector of economic activity (agriculture,...

Inclusive Growth : Measurement and Determinants

Inclusive Growth : Measurement and Determinants »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2013/135

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rahul Anand , Saurabh Mishra , and Shanaka Peiris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 May 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484323212.001

ISBN: 9781484323212

Keywords: pro-poor growth, distribution, equity, inequality, social mobility, pro-poor, distribution of income, welfare function, Justice, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

We estimate a unified measure of inclusive growth for emerging markets by integrating their economic growth performance and income distribution outcomes, using data over three decades. Country distributions are cal...

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2013/71

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shekhar Aiyar , Romain Duval , Damien Puy , Yiqun Wu , and Longmei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 March 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484330647.001

ISBN: 9781484330647

Keywords: growth, slowdown, middle income trap, Bayesian Model Averaging, per capita income, export diversification, gdp per capita, trade openness, growth rates, Bayesian Analysis

The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we ex...

Is China Over-Investing and Does it Matter?

Is China Over-Investing and Does it Matter? »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2012/277

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Il Houng Lee , Murtaza Syed , and Liu Xueyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 November 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475562675.001

ISBN: 9781475562675

Keywords: Social Welfare, Intertemporal Consumer Choice, cost of capital, gdp growth, real gdp, economic growth, General,

Now close to 50 percent of GDP, this paper assesses the appropriateness of China's current investment levels. It finds that China's capital-to-output ratio is within the range of other emerging markets, but its eco...