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Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650
			: Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks

Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650 : Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks »

Volume/Issue: 2013/180

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rabah Arezki , Kaddour Hadri , Prakash Loungani , and Yao Rao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 August 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484341155.001

ISBN: 9781484341155

Keywords: Primary, commodities, Unit, root tests, Multiple, Structural breaks, Volatility, commodity markets, price fluctuations, transport costs

In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting a...

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap »

Volume/Issue: 2013/71

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shekhar Aiyar , Romain Duval , Damien Puy , Yiqun Wu , and Longmei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 March 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484330647.001

ISBN: 9781484330647

Keywords: growth, slowdown, middle income trap, Bayesian Model Averaging, per capita income, export diversification, gdp per capita, trade openness, growth rates, Bayesian Analysis

The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we ex...

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles »

Volume/Issue: 2012/255

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 October 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475581645.001

ISBN: 9781475581645

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, macroeconomic shocks, international business cycle, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, oil exports, reer

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GD...

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2012/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi , and Maziar Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475597158.001

ISBN: 9781475597158

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, exporting countries, Time-Series Models

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-dr...

Global Imbalances and Petrodollars

Global Imbalances and Petrodollars »

Volume/Issue: 2009/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fuad Hasanov , and Rabah Arezki

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451872361.001

ISBN: 9781451872361

Keywords: Oil exporters, exporters, exporting countries, oil-exporting countries, terms of trade,

Oil exporters have run large current account surpluses. We explore oil exporters' role in our understanding and the resolution of global imbalances. Current account dynamics are estimated for oil-exporting countrie...

Finance & Development, June 2008

Finance & Development, June 2008 »

Volume/Issue: 45/2

Series: Finance & Development

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 June 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451922370.022

ISBN: 9781451922370

Keywords: international monetary fund, fiscal adjustment, financial crisis, private investment, foreign exchange

The June 2008 issue tackles the crisis in financial markets in industrial countries from a number of angles. Articles look at the origins of the crisis in the subprime mortgage market in the United States and track...

Exchange Rate Assessments
			: CGER Methodologies

Exchange Rate Assessments : CGER Methodologies »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Jaewoo Lee , Jonathan Ostry , Alessandro Prati , Luca Ricci , and Gian Milesi-Ferretti

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 April 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781589066380.084

ISBN: 9781589066380

Keywords: Exchange rates, Exchange rate assessments, current account, exchange rate, current account balance, real exchange rate

The rapid increase in international trade and financial integration over the past decade and the growing importance of emerging markets in world trade and GDP have inspired the IMF to place stronger emphasis on mul...

Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe
			: Debt Relief at the Completion Point Under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative and Under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative

Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe : Debt Relief at the Completion Point Under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative and Under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative »

Volume/Issue: 2007/173

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 May 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451835137.002

ISBN: 9781451835137

Keywords: debt service, debt sustainability, Sao Tome and Principe,

This paper examines the consideration of the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe's debt relief at the completion point under the enhanced Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Debt Relief unde...

IMF Survey, Volume 34, Issue 03

IMF Survey, Volume 34, Issue 03 »

Volume/Issue: 34/3

Series: IMF Survey

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 February 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451938302.023

ISBN: 9781451938302

Keywords: international monetary fund, financial stability, macroeconomic management, economic integration

The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen...

Cote d'Ivoire
			: Statistical Appendix

Cote d'Ivoire : Statistical Appendix »

Volume/Issue: 2004/157

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 June 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451807875.002

ISBN: 9781451807875

Keywords: debt, interest, external debt, balance of payments, current expenditure, Cote d'Ivoire,

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discuss...