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Growth
			: Now and Forever?

Growth : Now and Forever? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/117

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Giang Ho , and Paolo Mauro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498309820.001

ISBN: 9781498309820

Keywords: growth forecast, optimism bias, forecast horizon, economic growth, growth forecasts, growth rates, growth rate, economic growth forecasts,

Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Ba...

Rules, Discretion, and Macro-Prudential Policy

Rules, Discretion, and Macro-Prudential Policy »

Volume/Issue: 2013/65

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Itai Agur , and Sunil Sharma

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475546699.001

ISBN: 9781475546699

Keywords: Macro-prudential policy, regulation, rules, decision makers, regulations, Government Policy and Regulation, Government Policy and Regulation,

The paper examines the implementation of macro-prudential policy. Given the coordination, flow of information, analysis, and communication required, macro-prudential frameworks will have weaknesses that make it har...

The Evolution of Asian Financial Linkages
			: Key Determinants and the Role of Policy

The Evolution of Asian Financial Linkages : Key Determinants and the Role of Policy »

Volume/Issue: 2012/262

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Selim Elekdag , Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul , and Yiqun Wu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475588682.001

ISBN: 9781475588682

Keywords: financial linkages, beta, global financial crisis, macroeconomic policies, financial markets, equity market, financial crisis, General,

This paper examines how Asian financial linkages with systemic economies have changed over time. After developing a factor model, it estimates Asian financial sensitivities to systemic economies, and then seeks to...

The Domestic Credit Supply Response to International Bank Deleveraging
			: Is Asia Different?

The Domestic Credit Supply Response to International Bank Deleveraging : Is Asia Different? »

Volume/Issue: 2012/258

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shekhar Aiyar , and Sonali Jain-Chandra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 October 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475580914.001

ISBN: 9781475580914

Keywords: Global banks, liquidity shock, cross-border lending, instrumental variables, claims, banking, bank lending, bank for international settlements, instrumental variables., General,

During the global financial crisis, European banks contracted foreign claims on recipient economies sharply. This paper examines the impact of that deleveraging on credit supply in recipient economies, with a parti...

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the  World Economy
			: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2012/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475504187.001

ISBN: 9781475504187

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Fiscal policy analysis, Spillover analysis, World economy, Panel unobserved components model, Bayesian econometrics, inflation, domestic demand, terms of trade, price inflation

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a...

Bilateral Financial Linkages and Global Imbalances
			: a View on The Eve of the Financial Crisis

Bilateral Financial Linkages and Global Imbalances : a View on The Eve of the Financial Crisis »

Volume/Issue: 2010/257

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gian Milesi-Ferretti , Natalia Tamirisa , and Francesco Strobbe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455209576.001

ISBN: 9781455209576

Keywords: International financial integration, claims, fdi, portfolio investment, foreign exchange reserves,

We present a novel and comprehensive dataset of bilateral gross and net external positions in various financial instruments for the main advanced and emerging economies and regions, designed to improve our understa...

Macroeconomic Effects of Pension Reform in Russia

Macroeconomic Effects of Pension Reform in Russia »

Volume/Issue: 2008/201

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): David Hauner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451870596.001

ISBN: 9781451870596

Keywords: Russia, pension reform, DSGE models., pension, replacement rate, retirement, private pension, retirement age, DSGE models,

Putting the pension system on a sustainable footing arguably remains the biggest challenge in Russia's economic policies. The debate about the policy options was hitherto constrained by the absence of general equil...

On the Buyability of Voting Bodies

On the Buyability of Voting Bodies »

Volume/Issue: 2007/165

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Felix Vardy , and John Morgan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451867299.001

ISBN: 9781451867299

Keywords: Vote buying, lobbying, elections, voters, voting, voter, election,

We study vote buying by competing interest groups in a variety of electoral and contractual settings. While increasing the size of a voting body reduces its buyability in the absence of competition, we show that la...

Elements of Optimal Monetary Policy Committee Design

Elements of Optimal Monetary Policy Committee Design »

Volume/Issue: 2006/277

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jérôme Vandenbussche

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451865370.001

ISBN: 9781451865370

Keywords: collective decision making, inflation, central bank, monetary policy decisions, inflation targeting, Analysis Of Collective Decision-making, Monetary Policy, Central Banking, And The Supply Of Money And Credit,

The move from individual decision making to committee decision making is widely seen as a major evolution in contemporary central banking. This paper reviews the relevant economics and social psychology literatures...

Interest Rate Defenses of Currency Pegs

Interest Rate Defenses of Currency Pegs »

Volume/Issue: 2004/85

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Juan Sole

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451850789.001

ISBN: 9781451850789

Keywords: bond, central bank, bonds, domestic currency, interest rate policy, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

This paper studies a policy often used to defend a currency peg: raising short-term interest rates. The rationale for this policy is to stem demand for foreign reserves. Yet, this mechanism is absent from most mone...