Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Christopher Crowe
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 01 July 2010
Keywords: Consensus Forecasts, Information Aggregation, Forecast Efficiency, efficiency, forecast horizons, forecast errors, forecast horizon, forecast error, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,
Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cro...