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When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold?

When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold? »

Volume/Issue: 2016/214

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sohrab Rafiq

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 November 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475552607.001

ISBN: 9781475552607

Keywords: Cambodia, Cambodia, China, Cross country analysis, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Emerging markets, Economic integration, Economic growth, Philippines, Indonesia

This paper looks at the effects of a China slowdown on Emerging Market Economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand) and Frontier Developing Economies (Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., and Vietnam) in ASEAN. The main finding...

Spillovers from China's Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies

Spillovers from China's Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2016/170

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Dizioli , Jaime Guajardo , Vladimir Klyuev , Rui Mano , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 August 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475524260.001

ISBN: 9781475524260

Keywords: China’;s slowdown and rebalancing, international business cycle, spillovers, Global VAR, Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM), ASEAN-5.

After many years of rapid expansion, China's growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on...

Emerging Market Volatility
			: Lessons from The Taper Tantrum

Emerging Market Volatility : Lessons from The Taper Tantrum »

Volume/Issue: 2014/9

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Ratna Sahay , Vivek Arora , Athanasios Arvanitis , Hamid Faruqee , Papa N'Diaye , and Tommaso Mancini Griffoli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 October 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498318204.006

ISBN: 9781498318204

Keywords: Monetary policy, Emerging markets, United States, Capital flows, Financial markets, Capital market volatility, Macroprudential Policy, Developed countries, Tapering, unconventional monetary policy

Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discusse...

Future of Asia's Finance
			: How Can it Meet Challenges of Demographic Change and Infrastructure Needs?

Future of Asia's Finance : How Can it Meet Challenges of Demographic Change and Infrastructure Needs? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/126

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ding Ding , Waikei Lam , and Shanaka Peiris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498321082.001

ISBN: 9781498321082

Keywords: Demographic change, infrastructure financing, financial deepening, financial integration, capital and financial flows, bond, financial markets, financial sector development, bonds, Models with Panel Data

There is a role for Asia's financial sector to play to address the challenges associated with the region's changing demographics and infrastructure investment needs. Enhancing financial innovation and integration i...

Why Was Asia Resilient? Lessons from the Past and for the Future

Why Was Asia Resilient? Lessons from the Past and for the Future »

Volume/Issue: 2014/38

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Phakawa Jeasakul , Cheng Lim , and Erik Lundback

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475540284.001

ISBN: 9781475540284

Keywords: Global financial crisis, resilience, financial and external vulnerabilities, banking, banking crisis, banking system, bank capital, loan classification, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Asia including Middle East,

Asia proved to be remarkably resilient in the face of the global financial crisis, but why was its output performance stronger than that of other regions? The paper shows that better initial conditions-in the form...

Explaining ASEAN-3's Investment Puzzle A Tale of Two Sectors

Explaining ASEAN-3's Investment Puzzle A Tale of Two Sectors »

Volume/Issue: 2013/13

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yong Sarah Zhou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 January 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475533736.001

ISBN: 9781475533736

Keywords: Tobin&;amp;#x2019;s Q, asian crisis, capital markets, pre-crisis, financial crisis

The prolonged investment decline in post-Asian crisis emerging Asia, in contrast to the swift recovery of economic growth, has remained a puzzle. This paper shows that the post-crisis investment recession has been...

Optimal Liquidity and Economic Stability

Optimal Liquidity and Economic Stability »

Volume/Issue: 2012/135

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Linghui Han , and Il Lee

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475503883.001

ISBN: 9781475503883

Keywords: financial assets, financial sector, monetary aggregate, Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General, Dynamic Panel,

Monetary aggregates are now much less used as policy instruments as identifying the right measure has become difficult and interest rate transmission has worked well in an increasingly complex financial system. In...

What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia? »

Volume/Issue: 2012/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han , and Selim Elekdag

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463936440.001

ISBN: 9781463936440

Keywords: rapid credit growth, emerging Asia, SVAR, Bayesian estimation, sign restrictions, aggregate demand, domestic monetary policy, inflation, financial stability, What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

This paper seeks to uncover the main drivers of credit growth in emerging Asia using a multi-country structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. Taking a novel approach, we developed a two-block SVAR whereby sho...

Sovereign Spreads and Contagion Risks in Asia

Sovereign Spreads and Contagion Risks in Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2011/134

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Filiz Unsal , and Carlos Caceres

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455259397.001

ISBN: 9781455259397

Keywords: Sovereign spreads, contagion, market price of risk, exchange rate, exchange rate risk, euro, international monetary fund, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data), General Financial Markets,

This paper explores how much of the movements in the sovereign spreads of Asian economies over the course of the global financial crisis has reflected shifts in (i) global risk aversion; (ii) country-specific risks...

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation »

Volume/Issue: 2010/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christopher Crowe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455201891.001

ISBN: 9781455201891

Keywords: Consensus Forecasts, Information Aggregation, Forecast Efficiency, efficiency, forecast horizons, forecast errors, forecast horizon, forecast error, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cro...