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Slowdown in Emerging Markets
			: Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead?

Slowdown in Emerging Markets : Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/205

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Evridiki Tsounta

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 November 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498304719.001

ISBN: 9781498304719

Keywords: potential growth, emerging market economies, growth, growth rate, capital, tfp, labor, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

Following very strong growth during the period 2000-12, emerging market economies (EMEs) experienced a slowdown in the last couple of years. This paper examines the supply-side drivers of the strong growth performa...

Growth
			: Now and Forever?

Growth : Now and Forever? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/117

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Giang Ho , and Paolo Mauro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498309820.001

ISBN: 9781498309820

Keywords: growth forecast, optimism bias, forecast horizon, economic growth, growth forecasts, growth rates, growth rate, economic growth forecasts,

Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Ba...

Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa's Business Cycle Patterns

Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa's Business Cycle Patterns »

Volume/Issue: 2014/35

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Oumar Diallo , and Sampawende Tapsoba

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484306598.001

ISBN: 9781484306598

Keywords: Business Cycle Synchronicity, and the BRICs., trade intensity, trading partners, industry trade, impact of trade, General,

This paper assesses the extent to which Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)'s business cycle is synchronized with that of the rest of the world (RoW). Findings suggest that SSA's business cycle has not only moved in the same...

Potential Growth in Emerging Asia

Potential Growth in Emerging Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2014/2

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rahul Anand , Kevin Cheng , Sidra Rehman , and Longmei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 January 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484345726.001

ISBN: 9781484345726

Keywords: potential growth, emerging Asia, tfp, unemployment, growth rate, growth accounting, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

Using three distinct approaches-statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model- this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philipp...

Benchmarking Structural Transformation Across the World

Benchmarking Structural Transformation Across the World »

Volume/Issue: 2013/176

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Era Dabla-Norris , Alun Thomas , Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu , and Yingyuan Chen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 July 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484359662.001

ISBN: 9781484359662

Keywords: Structural Transformation, Quantile Regression, Panel Data, globalization, gdp per capita, real gdp, economic globalization, economic growth, General,

This paper documents stylized facts on the process of structural transformation around the world and empirically analyzes its determinants using data on real value added by sector of economic activity (agriculture,...

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap »

Volume/Issue: 2013/71

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shekhar Aiyar , Romain Duval , Damien Puy , Yiqun Wu , and Longmei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 March 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484330647.001

ISBN: 9781484330647

Keywords: growth, slowdown, middle income trap, Bayesian Model Averaging, per capita income, export diversification, gdp per capita, trade openness, growth rates, Bayesian Analysis

The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we ex...

Spillovers to Low-Income Countries
			: Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets

Spillovers to Low-Income Countries : Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2012/49

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Era Dabla-Norris , Raphael Espinoza , and Sarwat Jahan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463937102.001

ISBN: 9781463937102

Keywords: Growth Spillovers, Low-Income Countries, Decoupling, Panel Estimate, real gdp, gdp growth, commodity prices, commodity exporters, Economic Growth of Open Economies,

This paper documents the expanding economic linkages between low-income countries (LICs) and a narrow group of "Emerging Market leaders" that have become major players in regional and global trade and financial flo...

Global Monitoring Report, 2010
			: The MDGs after the Crisis

Global Monitoring Report, 2010 : The MDGs after the Crisis »

Series: Other Official Rpts and Docs

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 April 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455215959.019

ISBN: 9781455215959

Keywords: hiv/aids, safety nets, maternal mortality, external shocks, infant mortality

What is the human cost of the global economic crisis? This year's Global Monitoring Report, The MDGs after the Crisis, examines the impact of the worst recession since the Great Depression on poverty and human deve...

Russia's Output Collapse and Recovery
			: Evidence from the Post-Soviet Transition

Russia's Output Collapse and Recovery : Evidence from the Post-Soviet Transition »

Volume/Issue: 2010/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eteri Kvintradze

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451982596.001

ISBN: 9781451982596

Keywords: Russia and Growth Transition, transition period, growth rates, growth accounting, tfp,

The health of the Russian economy still depends heavily on natural resource revenues. The history of the economic collapse and recovery in 1970-2004 provides new evidence on the sources of Russian economic growth,...

Real and Financial Sector Linkages in China and India

Real and Financial Sector Linkages in China and India »

Volume/Issue: 2008/95

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jahangir Aziz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451869569.001

ISBN: 9781451869569

Keywords: Growth accounting, financial distortions, financial reforms, cost of capital, gnp, capital income, growth rate, growth model,

In the spirit of what is known as business cycle accounting, this paper finds that the investment wedge-the gap between household's rate of intertemporal substitution and the marginal product of capital-is large an...