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Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation »

Source: Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Volume/Issue: 2010/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christopher Crowe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

ISBN: 9781455201891

Keywords: Consensus Forecasts, Information Aggregation, Forecast Efficiency, efficiency, forecast horizons, forecast errors, forecast horizon, forecast error, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cro...

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation »

Volume/Issue: 2010/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christopher Crowe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455201891.001

ISBN: 9781455201891

Keywords: Consensus Forecasts, Information Aggregation, Forecast Efficiency, efficiency, forecast horizons, forecast errors, forecast horizon, forecast error, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cro...

The Cost of Aggressive Sovereign Debt Policies

The Cost of Aggressive Sovereign Debt Policies »

Source: The Cost of Aggressive Sovereign Debt Policies : How Much is theprivate Sector Affected?

Volume/Issue: 2009/29

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christoph Trebesch

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2009

ISBN: 9781451871760

Keywords: Sovereign Default, Reputation Spillovers, debt policies, debt crisis, external borrowing,

This paper proposes a new empirical measure of cooperative versus conflictual crisis resolution following sovereign default and debt distress. The index of government coerciveness is presented as a proxy for excusa...

The Cost of Aggressive Sovereign Debt Policies
			: How Much is theprivate Sector Affected?

The Cost of Aggressive Sovereign Debt Policies : How Much is theprivate Sector Affected? »

Volume/Issue: 2009/29

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christoph Trebesch

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451871760.001

ISBN: 9781451871760

Keywords: Sovereign Default, Reputation Spillovers, debt policies, debt crisis, external borrowing,

This paper proposes a new empirical measure of cooperative versus conflictual crisis resolution following sovereign default and debt distress. The index of government coerciveness is presented as a proxy for excusa...

Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets

Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2008/286

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Guglielmo Caporale , Marianne Schulze-Ghattas , John Beirne , and Nicola Spagnolo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451871449.001

ISBN: 9781451871449

Keywords: Volatility spillovers, Contagion, correlations, stock market, emerging stock markets, financial contagion,

This paper examines volatility spillovers from mature to emerging stock markets and tests for changes in the transmission mechanism-contagion-during turbulences in mature markets. Tri-variate GARCH-BEKK models of r...

Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets

Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets »

Source: Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets

Volume/Issue: 2008/286

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Guglielmo Caporale , Marianne Schulze-Ghattas , John Beirne , and Nicola Spagnolo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2008

ISBN: 9781451871449

Keywords: Volatility spillovers, Contagion, correlations, stock market, emerging stock markets, financial contagion,

This paper examines volatility spillovers from mature to emerging stock markets and tests for changes in the transmission mechanism-contagion-during turbulences in mature markets. Tri-variate GARCH-BEKK models of r...

ANNEX SUMMING UP BY THE ACTING CHAIR

ANNEX SUMMING UP BY THE ACTING CHAIR »

Source: Global Financial Stability Report, October 2007 : Financial Market Turbulence Causes, Consequences, and Policies

Series: Global Financial Stability Report

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 October 2007

ISBN: 9781589066762

Keywords: capital inflows, hedge funds, hedge, risk management, financial stability

The following remarks by the Acting Chair were made at the conclusion of the Executive Board’s discussion of the Global Financial Stability Report on September 14, 2...

CHAPTER 1. ASSESSING RISKS TO GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY

CHAPTER 1. ASSESSING RISKS TO GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY »

Source: Global Financial Stability Report, October 2007 : Financial Market Turbulence Causes, Consequences, and Policies

Series: Global Financial Stability Report

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 October 2007

ISBN: 9781589066762

Keywords: capital inflows, hedge funds, hedge, risk management, financial stability

Following an extended period of exceptionally favorable financial market conditions, international markets have entered a difficult period. The current episode of turbulence represents the first significant...

CHAPTER 2. DO MARKET RISK MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES AMPLIFY SYSTEMIC RISKS?

CHAPTER 2. DO MARKET RISK MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES AMPLIFY SYSTEMIC RISKS? »

Source: Global Financial Stability Report, October 2007 : Financial Market Turbulence Causes, Consequences, and Policies

Series: Global Financial Stability Report

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 October 2007

ISBN: 9781589066762

Keywords: capital inflows, hedge funds, hedge, risk management, financial stability

From 2002 to early 2007, the decline in volatility in the global economy and financial markets was reflected in lower measures of market risk, which encouraged firms to increase their risk-taking, thereby en...

CHAPTER 3. THE QUALITY OF DOMESTIC FINANCIAL MARKETS AND CAPITAL INFLOWS

CHAPTER 3. THE QUALITY OF DOMESTIC FINANCIAL MARKETS AND CAPITAL INFLOWS »

Source: Global Financial Stability Report, October 2007 : Financial Market Turbulence Causes, Consequences, and Policies

Series: Global Financial Stability Report

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 October 2007

ISBN: 9781589066762

Keywords: capital inflows, hedge funds, hedge, risk management, financial stability

The recent surge in capital flows to emerging market economies has stirred an intense debate about the appropriate policy response to this development. On the one hand, capital inflows are welcome because th...