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Measuring External Risks for Peru
			: Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy

Measuring External Risks for Peru : Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2014/161

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 September 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498327220.001

ISBN: 9781498327220

Keywords: Macroeconomic Model, Partial Dollarization, External Risk, Macroeconomic Forecast, inflation, aggregate demand, monetary fund, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets

This paper quantifies the effects of external risks for Peru, with particular attention to two major external risks, China's investment slowdown and the U.S. monetary policy tightening. In particular, a macroeconom...

The Rising Resilience of Emerging Market and Developing Economies

The Rising Resilience of Emerging Market and Developing Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2012/300

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Abdul Abiad , John Bluedorn , Jaime Guajardo , and Petia Topalova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 December 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475584851.001

ISBN: 9781475584851

Keywords: low-income countries, growth, expansion, recovery, inflation, external shocks, domestic shocks, trade openness, low inflation, General

Economic performance in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) improved substantially over the past twenty years. The past decade was particularly good-for the first time EMDEs spent more time in exp...

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the  World Economy
			: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2012/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475504187.001

ISBN: 9781475504187

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Fiscal policy analysis, Spillover analysis, World economy, Panel unobserved components model, Bayesian econometrics, inflation, domestic demand, terms of trade, price inflation

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a...

What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia? »

Volume/Issue: 2012/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han , and Selim Elekdag

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463936440.001

ISBN: 9781463936440

Keywords: rapid credit growth, emerging Asia, SVAR, Bayesian estimation, sign restrictions, aggregate demand, domestic monetary policy, inflation, financial stability, What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

This paper seeks to uncover the main drivers of credit growth in emerging Asia using a multi-country structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. Taking a novel approach, we developed a two-block SVAR whereby sho...

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the Group of Twenty
			: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the Group of Twenty : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2010/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455201358.001

ISBN: 9781455201358

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Panel unobserved components model, Bayesian conditioning on judgment, inflation, monetary conditions, nominal interest rate, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data, Model Construction and Estimation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into twenty national economies along the lines of the Group of Twenty. This structu...

Inflation Targeting and the Crisis
			: An Empirical Assessment

Inflation Targeting and the Crisis : An Empirical Assessment »

Volume/Issue: 2010/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Irineu de Carvalho Filho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451963045.001

ISBN: 9781451963045

Keywords: economic crisis, inflation, terms of trade, real interest rates, Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics: General, Business Fluctuations, And Cycles, money And Interest Rates,

This paper appraises how countries with inflation targeting fared during the current crisis, with the goal of establishing the stylized facts that will guide and motivate future research. We find that since August...

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy
			: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2009/238

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451873856.001

ISBN: 9781451873856

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, world economy, panel unobserved components model, Bayesian conditioning on judgment, monetary conditions, nominal interest rate, price inflation, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data, Model Construction and Estimation

This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. This structural macroeconometric model...

Elements of Optimal Monetary Policy Committee Design

Elements of Optimal Monetary Policy Committee Design »

Volume/Issue: 2006/277

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jérôme Vandenbussche

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451865370.001

ISBN: 9781451865370

Keywords: collective decision making, inflation, central bank, monetary policy decisions, inflation targeting, Analysis Of Collective Decision-making, Monetary Policy, Central Banking, And The Supply Of Money And Credit,

The move from individual decision making to committee decision making is widely seen as a major evolution in contemporary central banking. This paper reviews the relevant economics and social psychology literatures...

Does Inflation in China Affect the United States and Japan?

Does Inflation in China Affect the United States and Japan? »

Volume/Issue: 2006/36

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luke Willard , and Tarhan Feyzioglu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451862966.001

ISBN: 9781451862966

Keywords: inflation rates, price inflation, monetary fund, price level, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

With China's share in global trade increasing rapidly, some argued in 2002-03 that China was exporting deflation to other countries as it was dumping cheap goods in mature markets. Later, others argued that China w...

Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow in Foreign Currency?

Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow in Foreign Currency? »

Volume/Issue: 2003/177

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Jeanne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451858891.001

ISBN: 9781451858891

Keywords: Liability Dollarization, Monetary Credibility, currency debt, foreign currency, domestic currency, currency composition, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration,

This paper explores the hypothesis that the dollarization of liabilities in emerging market economies is the result of a lack of monetary credibility. I present a model in which firms choose the currency compositio...