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Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650
			: Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks

Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650 : Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks »

Volume/Issue: 2013/180

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rabah Arezki , Kaddour Hadri , Prakash Loungani , and Yao Rao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 August 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484341155.001

ISBN: 9781484341155

Keywords: Primary, commodities, Unit, root tests, Multiple, Structural breaks, Volatility, commodity markets, price fluctuations, transport costs

In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting a...

Russian Federation; Staff Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation

Russian Federation; Staff Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2011/294

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 September 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463904852.002

ISBN: 9781463904852

Keywords: inflation, monetary policy, external debt, current account, central bank

The reports highlights that, even though the Russian economy has started reviving from the crisis, growth has been moderate and inflation high. Executive Directors have advised that the focus should be on reducing...

(Why) Should Current Account Balances Be Reduced?

(Why) Should Current Account Balances Be Reduced? »

Volume/Issue: 2011/3

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Olivier Blanchard

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 March 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781462384860.006

ISBN: 9781462384860

Keywords: global imbalances, current account, exchange rates, current account deficits, current account surpluses, exchange rate, current account deficit, Account Balances Be Reduced?,

Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief an...

The Cost of Aggressive Sovereign Debt Policies
			: How Much is theprivate Sector Affected?

The Cost of Aggressive Sovereign Debt Policies : How Much is theprivate Sector Affected? »

Volume/Issue: 2009/29

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christoph Trebesch

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451871760.001

ISBN: 9781451871760

Keywords: Sovereign Default, Reputation Spillovers, debt policies, debt crisis, external borrowing,

This paper proposes a new empirical measure of cooperative versus conflictual crisis resolution following sovereign default and debt distress. The index of government coerciveness is presented as a proxy for excusa...

Trade Openness and Volatility

Trade Openness and Volatility »

Volume/Issue: 2008/146

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrei Levchenko , and Julian Di Giovanni

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451870046.001

ISBN: 9781451870046

Keywords: Output Volatility, Specialization, Comovement, Sector-Level Data, trade openness, aggregate volatility, correlation, equation, output growth,

This paper examines the mechanisms through which output volatility is related to trade openness using an industry-level panel dataset of manufacturing production and trade. The main results are threefold. First, se...

The Impact of Trade Liberalization on the Trade Balance in Developing Countries

The Impact of Trade Liberalization on the Trade Balance in Developing Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2008/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yi Wu , and Li Zeng

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451868760.001

ISBN: 9781451868760

Keywords: trade balance, impact of trade, impact of trade liberalization, terms of trade,

Using two recently constructed measures of trade liberalization dates, this research studies the impact of trade liberalization on imports, exports, and overall trade balance for a large sample of developing countr...

IMF Survey, Volume 36 Issue 11

IMF Survey, Volume 36 Issue 11 »

Volume/Issue: 36/11

Series: IMF Survey

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 September 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451938494.023

ISBN: 9781451938494

Keywords: current account deficit, current account, current account surpluses, global growth

IMF plan to cut imbalances; IMF clarifies aid role; world growth update; financial globalization; growth in Africa; low-income countries need fiscal reform; Central America seeks stronger growth; IMF surveillance f...

Foreign Banks in Poor Countries
			: Theory and Evidence

Foreign Banks in Poor Countries : Theory and Evidence »

Volume/Issue: 2006/18

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Enrica Detragiache , Poonam Gupta , and Thierry Tressel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451862782.001

ISBN: 9781451862782

Keywords: Financial development, low-income countries, foreign bank, foreign ownership, domestic banks, Low Income Developing Countries,

We study how foreign bank penetration affects financial sector development in poor countries. A theoretical model shows that when foreign banks are better at monitoring highend customers than domestic banks, their...

IMF Survey, Volume 34, Issue 11

IMF Survey, Volume 34, Issue 11 »

Volume/Issue: 34/11

Series: IMF Survey

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 June 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451938661.023

ISBN: 9781451938661

Keywords: international monetary fund, emerging economies, world trade, global economy

The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen...

Improving the Estimation Methodology of Monthly Data in Direction of Trade Statistics

Improving the Estimation Methodology of Monthly Data in Direction of Trade Statistics »

Volume/Issue: 1994/142

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Xiaoning Gong

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 1994

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451927467.001

ISBN: 9781451927467

Keywords: world trade, trade data, trade partners, trade figures, trade partner

The quality of the estimated data in DOTS depends on the availability and accuracy of direction of trade reports and the estimation methodology. Because of the low coverage of monthly reporting, the estimating proc...