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Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe
			: 2016 Article IV Consultation, First Review under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Exective Director for the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe

Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe : 2016 Article IV Consultation, First Review under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Exective Director for the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe »

Volume/Issue: 2016/174

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 June 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498307444.002

ISBN: 9781498307444

Keywords: debt, poverty, monetary fund, commercial banks, market

This paper discusses recent economic developments and economic outlook and risks of São Tomé and Príncipe. Although São Tomé and Príncipe's economic development is constrained by its insularity, fragility, limited...

Emerging Market Volatility
			: Lessons from The Taper Tantrum

Emerging Market Volatility : Lessons from The Taper Tantrum »

Volume/Issue: 2014/9

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Ratna Sahay , Vivek Arora , Athanasios Arvanitis , Hamid Faruqee , Papa N'Diaye , and Tommaso Mancini Griffoli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 October 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498318204.006

ISBN: 9781498318204

Keywords: Monetary policy, Emerging markets, United States, Capital flows, Financial markets, Capital market volatility, Macroprudential Policy, Developed countries, Tapering, unconventional monetary policy

Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discusse...

Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets
			: Determinants and Spillovers

Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets : Determinants and Spillovers »

Volume/Issue: 2012/71

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Reinout De Bock , and Alexander Demyanets

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475502237.001

ISBN: 9781475502237

Keywords: Macro-financial linkages, Nonperforming loans, Exchange rate, Panel regressions, capital inflows, net capital flows, exchange rates, Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, International Finance: General

This paper assesses the vulnerability of emerging markets and their banks to aggregate shocks. We find significant links between banks' asset quality, credit and macroeconomic aggregates. Lower economic growth, an...

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts
			: Some Cross-Country Evidence

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts : Some Cross-Country Evidence »

Volume/Issue: 2011/125

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalia Tamirisa , Prakash Loungani , and Herman Stekler

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455263424.001

ISBN: 9781455263424

Keywords: Information rigidity, forecasts, crises, banking crises, recession, impulse responses, number of observations, forecast errors, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices

We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of rec...

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2010
			: Meeting New Challenges to Stability and Building a Safer System

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2010 : Meeting New Challenges to Stability and Building a Safer System »

Series: Global Financial Stability Report

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 May 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781589069169.082

ISBN: 9781589069169

Keywords: loans, capital inflows, interest, debt, financial stability

Risks to global financial stability have eased as the economic recovery has gained steam. But policies are needed to reduce sovereign vulnerabilities, ensure a smooth deleveraging process, and complete the regulato...

Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries

Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2010/123

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Magda Kandil , and Hanan Morsy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455200825.001

ISBN: 9781455200825

Keywords: credibility, effectiveness, cyclicality, fiscal impulse, exchange rate, fiscal expansion, Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

Across a sample of thirty four emerging countries, the evidence shows the frequent existence of a pro-cyclical fiscal impulse. However, the scope for countercyclical policy increases with the availability of intern...

International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress

International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress »

Volume/Issue: 2010/124

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Papa N'Diaye , Dale Gray , Natalia Tamirisa , Hiroko Oura , and Qianying Chen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455200832.001

ISBN: 9781455200832

Keywords: bank, corporate, distress, GVAR, financial, international, probability, bank distress, probabilities, bank default

The paper evaluates how increases in banks' and nonfinancial corporates' default risk are transmitted in the global economy, using in a vector autoregression model for 30 advanced and emerging economies for the per...

International Evidence on Recovery from Recessions

International Evidence on Recovery from Recessions »

Volume/Issue: 2009/183

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Valerie Cerra , Sweta Saxena , and Ugo Panizza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451873306.001

ISBN: 9781451873306

Keywords: Growth, Recession, Rebound, Output loss, exchange rate, recessions, exchange rate regime,

Although negative shocks have persistent effects on output on average, this paper shows that macroeconomic policies and the structure of the economy can influence the speed of recovery and mitigate the persistence...

Fiscal Coverage in the Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia
			: Current Situation and a Way Forward

Fiscal Coverage in the Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia : Current Situation and a Way Forward »

Volume/Issue: 2008/111

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daria Zakharova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451869712.001

ISBN: 9781451869712

Keywords: Fiscal coverage, public enterprises, fiscal risks, fiscal statistics, fiscal policy, fiscal accounts, Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government,

This paper reviews some broad principles of fiscal coverage, building on cross-country experience. It discusses the level of coverage that would be appropriate to conduct good quality fiscal analysis, while strikin...

Exits from Heavily Managed Exchange Rate Regimes

Exits from Heavily Managed Exchange Rate Regimes »

Volume/Issue: 2005/39

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Enrica Detragiache , Eisuke Okada , and Ashoka Mody

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451860580.001

ISBN: 9781451860580

Keywords: orderly and disorderly exits, exchange rate, real exchange rate, international financial statistics, exchange rate regime, exchange rate regimes, International Lending and Debt Problems, orderly, and disorderly exits,

A widely held nostrum is that countries should exit heavily managed exchange rate regimes when the going is good, rather than when the exchange rate is under pressure to depreciate. Have countries followed this adv...