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After the Boom-Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

After the Boom-Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean »

Volume/Issue: 2014/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bertrand Gruss

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 August 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498363518.001

ISBN: 9781498363518

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), commodity prices, output growth, Latin America, commodity exporters, exporters, commodity exports, Time-Series Models, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Economic Growth of Open Economies

After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011-and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decad...

Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia

Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2014/80

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alberto Behar , and Jaime Espinosa-Bowen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484380796.001

ISBN: 9781484380796

Keywords: Gravity model, Caucasus, oil exports, oil exporters, exporters, services exports, exporter, Trade Forecasting and Simulation, International Business Cycles,

This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with r...

Africa's Rising Exposure to China
			: How Large Are Spillovers Through Trade?

Africa's Rising Exposure to China : How Large Are Spillovers Through Trade? »

Volume/Issue: 2013/250

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paulo Drummond , and Estelle Liu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 December 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484311318.001

ISBN: 9781484311318

Keywords: spillover, panel data, econometrics, export growth, exporters, oil exporters, total exports, General,

The rapid growth in China's domestic investment in recent decades has generated a large appetite for global goods, including from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This paper estimates the impact of changes in China's inve...

Export Quality in Developing Countries

Export Quality in Developing Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2013/108

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christian Henn , Chris Papageorgiou , and Nicola Spatafora

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 May 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484351635.001

ISBN: 9781484351635

Keywords: Product Quality, Upgrading, export quality, exporter, exporters, commodity exporters, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Information and Product Quality,

This paper develops new, far more extensive estimates of export quality, covering 178 countries and hundreds of products over 1962–2010. Quality upgrading is particularly rapid during the early stages of dev...

Measuring Competitiveness
			: Trade in Goods or Tasks?

Measuring Competitiveness : Trade in Goods or Tasks? »

Volume/Issue: 2013/100

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , Mika Saito , and Jarkko Turunen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 May 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325803.001

ISBN: 9781484325803

Keywords: Real Effective Exchange Rate, Global Supply Chains, reer, global supply, intermediate inputs, domestic production, gross exports, General,

With global supply chains, any value added or production task can be traded as part of goods. This means that competitiveness can be measured either in terms of “tasks” (Bems and Johnson, 2012), or go...

Effects of Capital Flow Liberalization
			: What is the Evidence from Recent Experiences of Emerging Market Economies?

Effects of Capital Flow Liberalization : What is the Evidence from Recent Experiences of Emerging Market Economies? »

Volume/Issue: 2012/275

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tahsin Saadi Sedik , and Tao Sun

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781589068032.001

ISBN: 9781589068032

Keywords: Capital flow liberalization, emerging market economies, dynamic panel data specification, simulations, capital flow, capital adequacy, Models with Panel Data, Government Policy and Regulation,

This paper analyzes the experiences of emerging market economies (EMEs) that have liberalized capital flows over the past 15 years with respect to macroeconomic performance and risks to financial stability. The res...

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles »

Volume/Issue: 2012/255

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 October 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475581645.001

ISBN: 9781475581645

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, macroeconomic shocks, international business cycle, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, oil exports, reer

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GD...

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2012/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi , and Maziar Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475597158.001

ISBN: 9781475597158

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks, oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, exporting countries, Time-Series Models

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-dr...

External Imbalances in the Euro Area

External Imbalances in the Euro Area »

Volume/Issue: 2012/236

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ruo Chen , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Thierry Tressel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 September 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475524673.001

ISBN: 9781475524673

Keywords: euro area, external imbalances, financial integration, terms of trade shocks, trading partner, trading partners, trade shocks, commodity exporters, domestic demand, Institutions and the Macroeconomy

The paper examines the extent to which current account imbalances of euro area countries are related to intra-euro area factors and to external trade shocks. We argue that the traditional explanations for the risin...

Japan out of the Lost Decade
			: Divine Wind or Firms' Effort?

Japan out of the Lost Decade : Divine Wind or Firms' Effort? »

Volume/Issue: 2012/171

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ichiro Tokutsu , Kazuo Ogawa , and Mika Saito

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475505191.001

ISBN: 9781475505191

Keywords: Lost Decade, Export, Price-Cost Margin, tfp, exporters, growth rate, export price, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Country and Industry Studies of Trade,

A surge of exports in the 2000s helped Japan exit the severe decade-long stagnation known as the lost decade. Using panel data of Japanese exporting firms, we examine the sources of the export surge during this per...