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Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis

Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis »

Source: Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2001/189

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zhiwei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2001

ISBN: 9781451859614

Keywords: ACH, currency crisis, duration analysis, contagion, speculative attacks, asian crisis, currency crises, equation, Econometric Modeling,

This paper takes the Asian crisis as an example to show that the Autoregressive Conditional Hazard (ACH) model is a powerful tool for studying the time series features of speculative attacks. The ACH model proposes...

Spend Now, Pay Later? Tax Smoothing and Fiscal Sustainability in South Asia

Spend Now, Pay Later? Tax Smoothing and Fiscal Sustainability in South Asia »

Source: Spend Now, Pay Later? Tax Smoothing and Fiscal Sustainability in South Asia

Volume/Issue: 1999/63

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 1999

ISBN: 9781451848403

Keywords: Tax smoothing, tax tilting, fiscal sustainability, budget surplus, equation, fiscal deficits, government spending

This paper tests a version of Barro’s tax-smoothing model, which assumes intertemporal optimization by a government seeking to minimize the distortionary costs of taxation, using Pakistan and Sri Lankan data...

Firm Heterogeneity and Weak Intellectual Property Rights

Firm Heterogeneity and Weak Intellectual Property Rights »

Source: Firm Heterogeneity and Weak Intellectual Property Rights

Volume/Issue: 2007/161

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Stanley Watt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2007

ISBN: 9781451867251

Keywords: Firm Heterogeneity, Intellectual Property Rights, r &;amp; d, standard errors, equation, outlier, probability,

In weak intellectual property rights (IPR) environments, the imitation of proprietary technology by domestic firms has become a deterrent for foreign investment. Different multinationals may view this deterrent dif...

Trade Openness and Volatility

Trade Openness and Volatility »

Source: Trade Openness and Volatility

Volume/Issue: 2008/146

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrei Levchenko , and Julian Di Giovanni

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2008

ISBN: 9781451870046

Keywords: Output Volatility, Specialization, Comovement, Sector-Level Data, trade openness, aggregate volatility, correlation, equation, output growth,

This paper examines the mechanisms through which output volatility is related to trade openness using an industry-level panel dataset of manufacturing production and trade. The main results are threefold. First, se...

Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart

Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart »

Source: Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart

Volume/Issue: 2009/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Prakash Kannan , and Selim Elekdag

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2009

ISBN: 9781451873252

Keywords: Fan Chart, Balance of Risks, Option Prices, Consensus Forecasts, risk factors, survey, skewness, normal distribution, equation,

This paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global growth forecast as a working example, the...

The Global Welfare Impact of China

The Global Welfare Impact of China »

Source: The Global Welfare Impact of China : Trade Integration and Technological Change

Volume/Issue: 2012/79

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Julian Di Giovanni , Jing Zhang , and Andrei Levchenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

ISBN: 9781475502312

Keywords: productivity growth, trade costs, correlation, equation, Neoclassical Models of Trade, Economic Growth of Open Economies,

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of China's trade integration and technological change in a quantitative Ricardian-Heckscher-Ohlin model implemented on 75 countries. We simulate two alternative produc...

Determinants of Development Financing Flows From Brazil, Russia, India, and China to Low-Income Countries

Determinants of Development Financing Flows From Brazil, Russia, India, and China to Low-Income Countries »

Source: Determinants of Development Financing Flows From Brazil, Russia, India, and China to Low-Income Countries

Volume/Issue: 2011/255

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nkunde Mwase

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

ISBN: 9781463923914

Keywords: BRICs, Low-Income Countries, Panel VAR, Panel OLS, Concessionality, loan financing, bank debt, equation, dummy variable, error variance

BRICs development financing flows have increased significantly and are expected to become more prominent in the post-crisis era. We investigate the potential implications on the country-allocation of loan commitmen...

Inflation Dynamics in Asia

Inflation Dynamics in Asia »

Source: Inflation Dynamics in Asia : Causes, Changes, and Spillovers From China

Volume/Issue: 2011/257

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carolina Osorio , and Filiz Unsal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

ISBN: 9781463923969

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), inflation dynamics, money supply, monetary shocks, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, International Policy Coordination and Transmission,

The perception that Asia's inflation dynamics is driven by idiosyncratic supply shocks implies, as a corollary, that there is little scope for a policy reaction to a build-up of inflationary pressures. However, Asi...

Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information1

Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information1 »

Source: Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information

Volume/Issue: 2012/19

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tao Wu , and Michele Cavallo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2012

ISBN: 9781463931810

Keywords: Oil Shocks, Market-Based Information, VAR Identification, oil market, opec, equation, oil demand, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Methodology for Collecting, Estimating

We study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, we classify them into various event types. We then...

Moral Hazard and International Crisis Lending: A Test

Moral Hazard and International Crisis Lending: A Test »

Source: Moral Hazard and International Crisis Lending : A Test

Volume/Issue: 2002/181

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Giovanni Dell'Ariccia , Jeronimo Zettelmeyer , and Isabel Schnabel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2002

ISBN: 9781451859201

Keywords: international lending, bond, crisis lending, bond spreads, bonds, International Lending and Debt Problems, Econometric Methods: - Single Equation Models,

We test for the existence of a moral hazard effect attributable to official crisis lending by analyzing the evolution of sovereign bond spreads in emerging markets before and after the Russian crisis. The nonbailou...