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World Economic Outlook, April 2019

Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery

The global economic expansion decelerated in the second half of 2018 with global growth projected to slow to 3.3 percent in 2019, with risks to future growth on the downside.

World Economic Outlook, April 2019

Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery

The global economic expansion decelerated in the second half of 2018 with global growth projected to slow to 3.3 percent in 2019, with risks to future growth on the downside.

Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run

Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run »

Source: Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run : the Role of Macroeconomic Volatility

Volume/Issue: 2010/259

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paolo Surico , Luca Ricci , and Pierpaolo Benigno

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

ISBN: 9781455209590

Keywords: macroeconomic volatility, downward wage rigidities, unemployment rate, employment, unemployment rates, rate of unemployment, Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics: General, Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production

We propose a theory of low-frequency movements in unemployment based on asymmetric real wage rigidities. The theory generates two main predictions: long-run unemployment increases with (i) a fall in long-run produc...

A New Look at the Determinants of Growth in Asian Countries

A New Look at the Determinants of Growth in Asian Countries »

Source: A New Look at the Determinants of Growth in Asian Countries

Volume/Issue: 2015/195

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Manuk Ghazanchyan , Janet Stotsky , and Qianqian Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 September 2015

ISBN: 9781513524535

Keywords: growth, exchange rate, exchange rate regime, economies, currency, General, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Economic Growth of Open Economies, General, Asia including Middle East,

This study examines the drivers of growth in Asian countries, with focus on the role of investment, the exchange rate regime, financial risk, and capital account openness. We use a panel data set of a sample of Asi...

Conventional and Insidious Macroeconomic Balance-Sheet Crises

Conventional and Insidious Macroeconomic Balance-Sheet Crises »

Source: Conventional and Insidious Macroeconomic Balance-Sheet Crises

Volume/Issue: 2014/160

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bas Bakker , and Leslie Lipschitz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 August 2014

ISBN: 9781498389044

Keywords: crises, capital inflows, exchange rate, real effective exchange rate, effective exchange rate, General, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance, Globalization: General,

This paper describes the anatomy of two types of balance-sheet macroeconomic crises. Conventional balance-sheet crises are triggered by external imbalances and balance sheet vulnerabilities. They typically occur af...

How Big Are the Benefits of Economic Diversification? Evidence from Earthquakes

How Big Are the Benefits of Economic Diversification? Evidence from Earthquakes »

Source: How Big Are the Benefits of Economic Diversification? Evidence from Earthquakes

Volume/Issue: 2005/48

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rodney Ramcharan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2005

ISBN: 9781451860672

Keywords: Risk, diversification, earthquakes, earthquake, disasters, epidemiology of disasters, Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment

Economic activity is risky. Returns across economic sectors can be highly variable, potentially causing costly adjustments to consumption. However, when returns are imperfectly correlated across sectors and insuran...

Consequences of Asset Shortages in Emerging Markets

Consequences of Asset Shortages in Emerging Markets »

Source: Consequences of Asset Shortages in Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 2012/102

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrick Imam , and Jiaqian Chen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2012

ISBN: 9781475502923

Keywords: Asset Shortage, Emerging Market, Crisis, Asset Bubble, financial assets, bond, bonds, asset bubbles, Money and Interest Rates: General, Financial Economics: General,

We assess econometrically the impact of asset shortages on economic growth, asset bubbles, the probability of a crisis, and the current account for a group of 41 Emerging markets for 1995-2008. The econometric esti...

Causes of Asset Shortages in Emerging Markets

Causes of Asset Shortages in Emerging Markets »

Source: Causes of Asset Shortages in Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 2011/114

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jiaqian Chen , and Patrick Imam

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2011

ISBN: 9781455262373

Keywords: Asset Shortage, Emerging Market, Capital Market, Regulation, financial assets, interest rates, capital markets, capital account, pension funds, Money and Interest Rates: General

We first illustrate that emerging markets (EMs) face a shortage of financial assets, with financial assets not growing as rapidly as domestic savings. We then estimate the asset shortage in EMs for 1995-2008. We de...

Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries

Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries »

Source: Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries

Volume/Issue: 2010/123

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Magda Kandil , and Hanan Morsy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2010

ISBN: 9781455200825

Keywords: credibility, effectiveness, cyclicality, fiscal impulse, exchange rate, fiscal expansion, Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

Across a sample of thirty four emerging countries, the evidence shows the frequent existence of a pro-cyclical fiscal impulse. However, the scope for countercyclical policy increases with the availability of intern...

Financial Frictions, Investment, and Institutions

Financial Frictions, Investment, and Institutions »

Source: Financial Frictions, Investment, and Institutions

Volume/Issue: 2010/231

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yishay Yafeh , Kenichi Ueda , and Stijn Claessens

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2010

ISBN: 9781455209316

Keywords: Financial Friction, institution, creditor rights, measurement errors, correlation, equation, financial markets, standard deviation, Corporate Finance and Governance: General, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General,

Financial frictions have been identified as key factors affecting economic fluctuations and growth. But, can institutional reforms reduce financial frictions? Based on a canonical investment model, we consider two...

Do Inflows or Outflows Dominate? Global Implications of Capital Account Liberalization in China

Do Inflows or Outflows Dominate? Global Implications of Capital Account Liberalization in China »

Source: Do Inflows or Outflows Dominate? Global Implications of Capital Account Liberalization in China

Volume/Issue: 2013/189

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , and Franziska Ohnsorge

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 August 2013

ISBN: 9781475532159

Keywords: portfolio flows, financial development, bond, stock market, bonds, portfolio investment, money market, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance, Globalization: General, General,

This paper assesses the implications of Chinese capital account liberalization for capital flows. Stylized facts from capital account liberalization in advanced and large emerging market economies illustrate that c...

Chronicle of a Decline Foretold

Chronicle of a Decline Foretold »

Source: Chronicle of a Decline Foretold : Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?

Volume/Issue: 2013/26

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mitali Das , and Papa N'Diaye

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 January 2013

ISBN: 9781475548242

Keywords: Excess labor supply, Lewis Turning Point, Population aging, Demographics, labor supply, labor force, labor market, labor demand, unemployment, General

China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a pre...