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Output and Unemployment Dynamics during the Great Recession

Output and Unemployment Dynamics during the Great Recession »

Source: Output and Unemployment Dynamics during the Great Recession : A Panel Unobserved Components Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2010/185

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2010

ISBN: 9781455202195

Keywords: Output dynamics, Unemployment dynamics, World economy, Great Recession, Panel unobserved components model, unemployment rate, unemployment, domestic demand, labor demand, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

This paper analyzes the sources of output and unemployment dynamics in the world economy during the Great Recession. This analysis is based on a panel unobserved components model of the world economy, disaggregated...

How do International Financial Flows to Developing Countries Respond to Natural Disasters?

How do International Financial Flows to Developing Countries Respond to Natural Disasters? »

Source: How do International Financial Flows to Developing Countries Respond to Natural Disasters?

Volume/Issue: 2010/166

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Antonio David

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

ISBN: 9781455201778

Keywords: Capital Flows, Natural Disasters, Panel Vector Autoregressive Models, Developing Countries, disasters, disaster, geological disasters, climatic disasters, natural disasters, International Finance: General

This paper uses multivariate dynamic panel analysis to examine the response of international financial flows to natural disasters. The models estimated for a large sample of developing countries point to differenti...

Low-Income Countries' BRIC Linkage

Low-Income Countries' BRIC Linkage »

Source: Low-Income Countries' BRIC Linkage : Are there Growth Spillovers?

Volume/Issue: 2011/267

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Issouf Samaké , and Yongzheng Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

ISBN: 9781463924669

Keywords: low-income countries, BRICs, Global VAR, Structural VAR, exporters, commodity prices, oil exporters, commodity exporters, oil prices, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models

Trade and financial ties between low-income countries (LICs) and Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRICs) have expanded rapidly in recent years. This gives rise to the potential for growth to spill over from the la...

Rent Seeking

Rent Seeking »

Source: Rent Seeking

Volume/Issue: 2005/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shankha Chakraborty , and Era Dabla-Norris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2005

ISBN: 9781451860627

Keywords: probability, expropriation, equation, credit markets, increasing returns, Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions, Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections

This paper examines the relationship between rent seeking and economic performance when governments cannot enforce property rights. With imperfect credit markets and a fixed cost of rent seeking, only wealthy agent...

After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean »

Source: After the Boom-Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

Volume/Issue: 2014/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bertrand Gruss

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 August 2014

ISBN: 9781498363518

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), commodity prices, output growth, Latin America, commodity exporters, exporters, commodity exports, Time-Series Models, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Economic Growth of Open Economies

After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011-and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decad...

Emerging Asia's Impact on Australian Growth

Emerging Asia's Impact on Australian Growth »

Source: Emerging Asia's Impact on Australian Growth : Some Insights From GEM

Volume/Issue: 2010/262

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benjamin Hunt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

ISBN: 9781455210695

Keywords: Emerging Asia, Productivity Growth, Rebalancing, exchange rates, exchange rate, real exchange rates, tradable goods, Economic Growth of Open Economies, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation, One

Over the last decade, GDP growth in emerging Asia was roughly twice as fast as average world growth. The IMF's Global Economy Model (GEM) is used to estimate the impact that emerging Asia's growth differential has...

Determinants of Growth Spells

Determinants of Growth Spells »

Source: Determinants of Growth Spells : Is Africa Different?

Volume/Issue: 2012/227

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Charalambos Tsangarides

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2012

ISBN: 9781475510225

Keywords: International Growth, survival analysis, robustness, Bayesian Model Averaging, terms of trade, inflation, trade growth, per capita income, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General

Do growth spells in Africa end because of bad realizations of the same factors that influence growth spells in the rest of the world, or because of different factors altogether? To answer this question, we examine...

ICT Equipment Investment and Growth in Low- and Lower-Middle-Income Countries

ICT Equipment Investment and Growth in Low- and Lower-Middle-Income Countries »

Source: ICT Equipment Investment and Growth in Low- and Lower-Middle-Income Countries

Volume/Issue: 2010/66

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Markus Haacker

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2010

ISBN: 9781451982107

Keywords: ICT, technology, equipment investment, technological progress, trade data, technological advances, information technology, net exports, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, One

While production of ICT equipment plays a subordinate role for economic growth in most of these countries, they do benefit from capital deepening arising from falling prices of ICT equipment. Adapting established g...

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts »

Source: An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

Volume/Issue: 2006/59

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Timmermann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2006

ISBN: 9781451863192

Keywords: Global economic condition, forecast performance, and evaluation, inflation, statistics, correlation, inflation forecasts, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Prices, Business Fluctuations

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forec...

Measuring External Risks for Peru
			: Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy

Measuring External Risks for Peru : Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2014/161

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 September 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498327220.001

ISBN: 9781498327220

Keywords: Macroeconomic Model, Partial Dollarization, External Risk, Macroeconomic Forecast, inflation, aggregate demand, monetary fund, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets

This paper quantifies the effects of external risks for Peru, with particular attention to two major external risks, China's investment slowdown and the U.S. monetary policy tightening. In particular, a macroeconom...