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World Economic Outlook, April 2019

Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery

The global economic expansion decelerated in the second half of 2018 with global growth projected to slow to 3.3 percent in 2019, with risks to future growth on the downside.

World Economic Outlook, April 2019

Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery

The global economic expansion decelerated in the second half of 2018 with global growth projected to slow to 3.3 percent in 2019, with risks to future growth on the downside.

China's Footprint in Global Commodity Markets

China's Footprint in Global Commodity Markets »

Source: China's Footprint in Global Commodity Markets

Volume/Issue: 2016/06

Series: Spillover Notes

Author(s): Christina Kolerus , Papa N'Diaye , and Christian Saborowski

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 September 2016

ISBN: 9781475541069

Keywords: Crude oil, Food prices, Asia and Pacific, Commodities, Commodity prices, China, Spillovers, Industrial production, footprint, global commodity markets

This note assesses empirically the role Chinese activity plays in global commodities markets, showing that the strength of China's economic activity has a significant bearing on commodity prices, but that the impac...

China Spillovers

China Spillovers »

Source: China Spillovers : New Evidence From Time-Varying Estimates

Volume/Issue: 2016/07

Series: Spillover Notes

Author(s): Davide Furceri , João Tovar Jalles , and Aleksandra Zdzienicka

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 November 2016

ISBN: 9781475546637

Keywords: Exports, Asia and Pacific, Commodities, China, Manufacturing, Industry, Trade, growth, global economic growth, global financial crisis

Until recently, China has been the leading contributor to global economic growth and-since the recent global financial crisis-a stabilizing driver of its evolution. However, as China recently began to rebalance its...

When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold?

When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold? »

Source: When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold?

Volume/Issue: 2016/214

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sohrab Rafiq

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 November 2016

ISBN: 9781475552607

Keywords: Cambodia, Cambodia, China, Cross country analysis, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Emerging markets, Economic integration, Economic growth, Philippines, Indonesia

This paper looks at the effects of a China slowdown on Emerging Market Economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand) and Frontier Developing Economies (Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., and Vietnam) in ASEAN. The main finding...

China's Imports Slowdown

China's Imports Slowdown »

Source: China's Imports Slowdown : Spillovers, Spillins, and Spillbacks

Volume/Issue: 2016/51

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexei Kireyev , and Andrei Leonidov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 March 2016

ISBN: 9781513555850

Keywords: shocks, spillover, spillin, spillback, network, gdp, revenue, demand, Neural Networks and Related Topics, Country and Industry Studies of Trade

The paper models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China's imports as a result of China's rebalancing of its growth model. A network-based model used in the paper allows capturing higher round ne...

Assessing Systemic Trade Interconnectedness

Assessing Systemic Trade Interconnectedness »

Source: Assessing Systemic Trade Interconnectedness : An Empirical Approach

Volume/Issue: 2011/214

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexander Massara , and Luca Errico

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

ISBN: 9781463902964

Keywords: systemic, DOTS, network analysis, cross-border spillovers, contagion, trade sector, global trade, financial sector, trading partners, Neural Networks and Related Topics

The paper focuses on systemically important jurisdictions in the global trade network, complementing recent IMF work on systemically important financial sectors. Using the IMF's Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS)...

Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers

Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers »

Source: Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers

Volume/Issue: 2015/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexei Kireyev , and Andrei Leonidov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 July 2015

ISBN: 9781513542928

Keywords: shocks, spillover, network, balance of payments, imports, import, trading partners, Neural Networks and Related Topics, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Open Economy Macroeconomics

This paper proposes a method for assessing international spillovers from nominal demand shocks. It quantifies the impact of a shock in one country on all other countries. The paper concludes that the network effect...

Chapter 4. Spillovers from China’s Transition and from Migration

Chapter 4. Spillovers from China’s Transition and from Migration »

Source: World Economic Outlook, October 2016 : Subdued Demand: Symptoms and Remedies

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 October 2016

ISBN: 9781513599540

Keywords: World Economic Outlook, International trade, General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, Discriminatory trade practices, International trade agreements, Trade, Trade liberalization, Trade policy, Global trade, Restraint of trade

Spillovers are a key factor shaping the path of the global economy and the risks around it, but their nature is changing. The growing clout of emerging markets means that shocks originating ther...

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the  World Economy

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy »

Source: Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Volume/Issue: 2012/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2012

ISBN: 9781475504187

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Fiscal policy analysis, Spillover analysis, World economy, Panel unobserved components model, Bayesian econometrics, inflation, domestic demand, terms of trade, price inflation

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a...

Financial Crisis, US Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Spillovers1

Financial Crisis, US Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Spillovers1 »

Source: Financial Crisis, US Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Spillovers

Volume/Issue: 2015/85

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Qianying Chen , Andrew Filardo , Dong He , and Feng Zhu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 April 2015

ISBN: 9781475520668

Keywords: emerging economies, global VAR, international monetary policy spillovers, quantitative easing, unconventional monetary policy, federal reserve, securities, reserve, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Monetary Policy (Targets

We study the impact of the US quantitative easing (QE) on both the emerging and advanced economies, estimating a global vector error-correction model (GVECM) and conducting counterfactual analyses. We focus on the...

Spillovers from the Maturing of China's Economy

Spillovers from the Maturing of China's Economy »

Source: Spillovers from the Maturing of China's Economy

Volume/Issue: 2016/212

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Dizioli , Benjamin Hunt , and Wojciech Maliszewski

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2016

ISBN: 9781475552225

Keywords: Spillovers, Asia and Pacific, China’;s slowdown and rebalancing, international business cycle, model based analysis, China&;amp;#x2019;s slowdown and rebalancing, Computable General Equilibrium Models, Forecasting and Simulation, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Business Cycles

China's transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing' of China's economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) o...