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Sectorial Macroeconomic Interdependencies
			: Evidence for Latin America, East Asia and Europe

Sectorial Macroeconomic Interdependencies : Evidence for Latin America, East Asia and Europe »

Volume/Issue: 1999/11

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Norman Loayza , J. Lopez , and Angel Ubide

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1999

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451842760.001

ISBN: 9781451842760

Keywords: International Comovements, Currency Areas, Error Components Models, common, output growth, andean pact, trade integration, regional trade

This paper analyzes common economic patterns across countries and economic sectors in Latin America, East Asia and Europe for the period 1970–94 by means of an error-components model that decomposes real val...

What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia? »

Volume/Issue: 2012/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han , and Selim Elekdag

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463936440.001

ISBN: 9781463936440

Keywords: rapid credit growth, emerging Asia, SVAR, Bayesian estimation, sign restrictions, aggregate demand, domestic monetary policy, inflation, financial stability, What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

This paper seeks to uncover the main drivers of credit growth in emerging Asia using a multi-country structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. Taking a novel approach, we developed a two-block SVAR whereby sho...

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap »

Volume/Issue: 2013/71

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shekhar Aiyar , Romain Duval , Damien Puy , Yiqun Wu , and Longmei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 March 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484330647.001

ISBN: 9781484330647

Keywords: growth, slowdown, middle income trap, Bayesian Model Averaging, per capita income, export diversification, gdp per capita, trade openness, growth rates, Bayesian Analysis

The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we ex...

Spillover Implications of China's Slowdown for International Trade

Spillover Implications of China's Slowdown for International Trade »

Volume/Issue: 2016/4

Series: Spillover Notes

Author(s): Patrick Blagrave , and Esteban Vesperoni

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 September 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475539462.062

ISBN: 9781475539462

Keywords: Export growth, Exports, Asia and Pacific, China, Commodities, Manufacturing, Spillovers, Trade, export intensity, final demand

Using a panel vector autoregression and a novel measure of export-intensity-adjusted final demand, this note studies spillovers from China's economic transition on export growth in 46 advanced and emerging market e...

Rebalancing China's Economy
			: What Does Growth Theory Tell Us?

Rebalancing China's Economy : What Does Growth Theory Tell Us? »

Volume/Issue: 2006/291

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jahangir Aziz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451865516.001

ISBN: 9781451865516

Keywords: Business cycle accounting, rebalancing growth, financial distortions, gnp, cost of capital, capital income, growth model, capital formation, Economywide Country Studies: Asia including Middle East,

This paper uses the standard one-sector neoclassical growth model to investigate why China's consumption has been low and investment high. It finds that the low cost of capital has been quantitatively an important...

Employment Effects of Growth Rebalancing in China

Employment Effects of Growth Rebalancing in China »

Volume/Issue: 2009/169

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451873160.001

ISBN: 9781451873160

Keywords: growth rebalancing, GIMF model, share of employment, employment in the services sector, job creation, employment in agriculture,

This paper gauges the potential effects on employment of rebalancing China's exportoriented growth model toward domestic demand, particularly private consumption. Shifting to a private consumption-led growth likely...

Trade and Financial Spilloveron Hong Kong SAR from a Downturn in Europe and Mainland China

Trade and Financial Spilloveron Hong Kong SAR from a Downturn in Europe and Mainland China »

Volume/Issue: 2012/81

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Papa N'Diaye , and Ashvin Ahuja

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475502336.001

ISBN: 9781475502336

Keywords: Macroeconomic Interdependence, Growth, Global VAR, Applied General Equilibrium Model, Simulation, financial system, lending, portfolio, financial distress, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models

Hong Kong SAR was hit hard by the global financial crisis, which started out in the U.S. and spilled over to the rest of the world. Three years later, vulnerabilities in the euro area's financial system and concern...

Determinants of Growth Spells
			: Is Africa Different?

Determinants of Growth Spells : Is Africa Different? »

Volume/Issue: 2012/227

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Charalambos Tsangarides

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475510225.001

ISBN: 9781475510225

Keywords: International Growth, survival analysis, robustness, Bayesian Model Averaging, terms of trade, inflation, trade growth, per capita income, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General

Do growth spells in Africa end because of bad realizations of the same factors that influence growth spells in the rest of the world, or because of different factors altogether? To answer this question, we examine...

Emerging Asia's Impact on Australian Growth
			: Some Insights From GEM

Emerging Asia's Impact on Australian Growth : Some Insights From GEM »

Volume/Issue: 2010/262

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benjamin Hunt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455210695.001

ISBN: 9781455210695

Keywords: Emerging Asia, Productivity Growth, Rebalancing, exchange rates, exchange rate, real exchange rates, tradable goods, Economic Growth of Open Economies, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation, One

Over the last decade, GDP growth in emerging Asia was roughly twice as fast as average world growth. The IMF's Global Economy Model (GEM) is used to estimate the impact that emerging Asia's growth differential has...

Front Matter

Front Matter »

Source: Modernizing China : Investing in Soft Infrastructure

Series: Books

Author(s): W. Raphael Lam , Markus Rodlauer , and Alfred Schipke

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 January 2017

ISBN: 9781513539942

Keywords: Economic reforms, reforms, economic success, growth model, policy frameworks, markets, market economy, soft infrastructure, institutions, rebalancing

China is at a critical juncture in its economic transformation as it tries to rebalance what is generally seen as an exhausted growth model. A unifying theme across the reforms that will deliver this transformation...