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World Economic Outlook, April 2019

Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery

The global economic expansion decelerated in the second half of 2018 with global growth projected to slow to 3.3 percent in 2019, with risks to future growth on the downside.

World Economic Outlook, April 2019

Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery

The global economic expansion decelerated in the second half of 2018 with global growth projected to slow to 3.3 percent in 2019, with risks to future growth on the downside.

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap »

Volume/Issue: 2013/71

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shekhar Aiyar , Romain Duval , Damien Puy , Yiqun Wu , and Longmei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 March 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484330647.001

ISBN: 9781484330647

Keywords: growth, slowdown, middle income trap, Bayesian Model Averaging, per capita income, export diversification, gdp per capita, trade openness, growth rates, Bayesian Analysis

The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we ex...

The Dynamics of Provincial Growth in China
			: A Nonparametric Approach

The Dynamics of Provincial Growth in China : A Nonparametric Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2006/55

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bulent Unel , and Harm Zebregs

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451863154.001

ISBN: 9781451863154

Keywords: Provincial Growth in China, Convergence, Data Envelopment Analysis, labor productivity growth, growth rate, growth accounting, gdp growth, Economywide Country Studies: Asia including Middle East, Development Planning And Policy, Socialist Systems And Transitional Economies,

China's growth record since the start of its economic reforms in 1978 has been extraordinary. Yet, this impressive performance has been associated with an increasing regional income disparity. We use a recently dev...

China's Imports Slowdown
			: Spillovers, Spillins, and Spillbacks

China's Imports Slowdown : Spillovers, Spillins, and Spillbacks »

Volume/Issue: 2016/51

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexei Kireyev , and Andrei Leonidov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 March 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513555850.001

ISBN: 9781513555850

Keywords: shocks, spillover, spillin, spillback, network, gdp, revenue, demand, Neural Networks and Related Topics, Country and Industry Studies of Trade

The paper models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China's imports as a result of China's rebalancing of its growth model. A network-based model used in the paper allows capturing higher round ne...