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Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts

Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts »

Source: Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts : Some Cross-Country Evidence

Volume/Issue: 2011/125

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalia Tamirisa , Prakash Loungani , and Herman Stekler

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455263424

Keywords: Information rigidity, forecasts, crises, banking crises, recession, impulse responses, number of observations, forecast errors, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices

We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of rec...

Financial Frictions, Investment, and Institutions

Financial Frictions, Investment, and Institutions »

Source: Financial Frictions, Investment, and Institutions

Volume/Issue: 2010/231

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yishay Yafeh , Kenichi Ueda , and Stijn Claessens

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2010

ISBN: 9781455209316

Keywords: Financial Friction, institution, creditor rights, measurement errors, correlation, equation, financial markets, standard deviation, Corporate Finance and Governance: General, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General,

Financial frictions have been identified as key factors affecting economic fluctuations and growth. But, can institutional reforms reduce financial frictions? Based on a canonical investment model, we consider two...

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts »

Source: An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

Volume/Issue: 2006/59

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Timmermann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2006

ISBN: 9781451863192

Keywords: Global economic condition, forecast performance, and evaluation, inflation, statistics, correlation, inflation forecasts, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Prices, Business Fluctuations

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forec...

Chapter 3. Unemployment Dynamics during Recessions and Recoveries: Okun’s Law and Beyond

Chapter 3. Unemployment Dynamics during Recessions and Recoveries: Okun’s Law and Beyond »

Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2010 : Rebalancing Growth

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 April 2010

ISBN: 9781589069152

Keywords: unemployment, employment, unemployment rate, current account, current account surplus

The global economy is recovering from its deepest downturn since World War II, but the speed of recovery differs greatly across regions. For many advanced economies—where the financial crisis was centered—re...

Chapter 4. Getting the Balance Right: Transitioning out of Sustained Current Account Surpluses

Chapter 4. Getting the Balance Right: Transitioning out of Sustained Current Account Surpluses »

Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2010 : Rebalancing Growth

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 April 2010

ISBN: 9781589069152

Keywords: unemployment, employment, unemployment rate, current account, current account surplus

Global imbalances narrowed during the crisis, but a strong and balanced recovery requires that this narrowing be made more durable. Before the crisis, a number of economies experienced large and persistent c...

Statistical Appendix

Statistical Appendix »

Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2010 : Rebalancing Growth

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 April 2010

ISBN: 9781589069152

Keywords: unemployment, employment, unemployment rate, current account, current account surplus

The Statistical Appendix presents historical data, as well as projections. It comprises five sections: Assumptions, What’s New, Data and Conventions, Classification of Countries, an...

Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives

Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives »

Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2010 : Rebalancing Growth

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 April 2010

ISBN: 9781589069152

Keywords: unemployment, employment, unemployment rate, current account, current account surplus

As the global economy comes out of its deepest downturn since World War II, the prospects for growth vary substantially across and within regions (Figure 2.1). In some economies average growth d...

Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies

Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies »

Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2010 : Rebalancing Growth

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 April 2010

ISBN: 9781589069152

Keywords: unemployment, employment, unemployment rate, current account, current account surplus

The global recovery has evolved better than expected, but in many economies the strength of the rebound has been moderate given the severity of the recession. In 2010, world output is expected t...

IV Risks of Deflation

IV Risks of Deflation »

Source: Deflation : Determinants, Risks, and Policy Options

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Taimur Baig , Jörg Decressin , Tarhan Feyzioglu , Manmohan Kumar , and Chris Faulkner-MacDonagh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 June 2003

ISBN: 9781589062276

Keywords: inflation, monetary policy, aggregate demand, money supply, low inflation

This section provides an assessment of conjunctural deflation risks in the world economy. It shows that deflationary pressures have risen in several countries, and that the susceptibility to deflation is hig...

CHAPTER IV ACCESSION OF TRANSITION ECONOMIES TO THE EUROPEAN UNION: PROSPECTS AND PRESSURES

CHAPTER IV ACCESSION OF TRANSITION ECONOMIES TO THE EUROPEAN UNION: PROSPECTS AND PRESSURES »

Source: World Economic Outlook, October 2000 : Focus on Transition Economies

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 September 2000

ISBN: 9781557759757

Keywords: debt, interest, transition economies, payments, accession countries

The first decade of transition for the countries of central and eastern Europe and the Baltics (CEECs) was marked by a substantial reorientation of their economic and institutional focus toward western Europ...