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Recovery and Growth in Transition: A Decade of Evidence

Recovery and Growth in Transition: A Decade of Evidence »

Source: IMF Staff Papers, Volume 48, Special Issue, Transition Economies, How Much Progress?

Volume: 48

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): Richard Haas , Oleh Havrylyshyn , and Ratna Sahay

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 April 2002

ISBN: 9781589061262

Keywords: international monetary fund, macroeconomic stabilization, budget constraints, structural reform

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Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation »

Source: Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Volume/Issue: 2010/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christopher Crowe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

ISBN: 9781455201891

Keywords: Consensus Forecasts, Information Aggregation, Forecast Efficiency, efficiency, forecast horizons, forecast errors, forecast horizon, forecast error, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cro...