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Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets

Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets »

Source: Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 2010/10

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Udaibir Das , Michael Papaioannou , and Christoph Trebesch

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2010

ISBN: 9781451961942

Keywords: Sovereign default, Private sector access, capital markets, external borrowing, sovereign defaults,

Top down spillovers of sovereign default risk can have serious consequences for the private sector in emerging markets. This paper analyzes the effects of these spillovers using firm-level data from 31 emerging mar...

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation »

Source: Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Volume/Issue: 2010/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christopher Crowe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

ISBN: 9781455201891

Keywords: Consensus Forecasts, Information Aggregation, Forecast Efficiency, efficiency, forecast horizons, forecast errors, forecast horizon, forecast error, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cro...

The Dynamics of Product Quality and International Competitiveness

The Dynamics of Product Quality and International Competitiveness »

Source: The Dynamics of Product Quality and International Competitiveness

Volume/Issue: 2007/97

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ashoka Mody , Deniz Igan , and Stefania Fabrizio

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2007

ISBN: 9781451866612

Keywords: International competitiveness, Product quality, reer, trading partners, export growth, world exports, export performance, Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Technological Change: Other,

Despite the appreciation of the exchange rate, the eight Central and Eastern European countries (the CEE-8) that entered the European Union in May 2004 have achieved a decade of impressive export growth, expanding...

Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run

Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run »

Source: Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run : the Role of Macroeconomic Volatility

Volume/Issue: 2010/259

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paolo Surico , Luca Ricci , and Pierpaolo Benigno

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

ISBN: 9781455209590

Keywords: macroeconomic volatility, downward wage rigidities, unemployment rate, employment, unemployment rates, rate of unemployment, Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics: General, Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production

We propose a theory of low-frequency movements in unemployment based on asymmetric real wage rigidities. The theory generates two main predictions: long-run unemployment increases with (i) a fall in long-run produc...

II Macroeconomic Balance Approach

II Macroeconomic Balance Approach »

Source: Exchange Rate Assessments : CGER Methodologies

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Jaewoo Lee , Jonathan Ostry , Alessandro Prati , Luca Ricci , and Gian Milesi-Ferretti

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 April 2008

ISBN: 9781589066380

Keywords: Exchange rates, Exchange rate assessments, current account, exchange rate, current account balance, real exchange rate

The macroeconomic balance approach to exchange rate assessments consists of three steps. First, an equilibrium relationship between current account balances and a set of fundamentals is estimated with panel...

III Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Approach

III Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Approach »

Source: Exchange Rate Assessments : CGER Methodologies

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Jaewoo Lee , Jonathan Ostry , Alessandro Prati , Luca Ricci , and Gian Milesi-Ferretti

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 April 2008

ISBN: 9781589066380

Keywords: Exchange rates, Exchange rate assessments, current account, exchange rate, current account balance, real exchange rate

The reduced-form equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) approach to exchange rate assessment consists of three steps. First, panel regression techniques are used to estimate an equilibrium relationship betwee...