World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics, 1995–2006

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Published Date:
April 2006
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I. Methodology—Aggregation, Modeling, and Forecasting

World Economic Outlook
The Difficult Art of ForecastingOctober 1996, Annex I
World Current Account DiscrepancyOctober 1996, Annex III
Alternative Exchange Rate Assumptions for JapanOctober 1997, Box 2
Revised Purchasing Power Parity Based Weights for the World Economic OutlookMay 2000, Box A1
The Global Current Account DiscrepancyOctober 2000, Chapter I, Appendix II
How Well Do Forecasters Predict Turning Points?May 2001, Box 1.1
The Information Technology Revolution: Measurement IssuesOctober 2001, Box 3.1
Measuring Capital Account LiberalizationOctober 2001, Box 4.1
The Accuracy of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts: 1991–2000December 2001, Box 3.1
On the Accuracy of Forecasts of RecoveryApril 2002, Box 1.2
The Global Current Account Discrepancy and Other Statistical ProblemsSeptember 2002, Box 2.1
The Global Economy ModelApril 2003, Box 4.3
How Should We Measure Global Growth?September 2003, Box 1.2
Measuring Foreign ReservesSeptember 2003, Box 2.2
The Effects of Tax Cuts in a Global Fiscal ModelApril 2004, Box 2.2
How Accurate are the Forecasts in the World Economic Outlook?April 2006, Box 1.3
Drawing the Line Between Personal and Corporate SavingsApril 2006, Box 4.1
Staff Studies for the

World Economic Outlook
How Accurate Are the IMF’s Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook Michael J. ArtisDecember 1997
IMF’s Estimates of Potential Output: Theory and Practice Paula R. De MasiDecember 1997
Multilateral Unit-Labor-Cost-Based Competitiveness Indicators for Advanced, Developing, and Transition Countries Anthony G. Turner and Stephen GolubDecember 1997

II. Historical Surveys

World Economic Outlook
The Rise and Fall of Inflation—Lessons from Postwar ExperienceOctober 1996, Chapter VI
The World Economy in the Twentieth CenturyMay 2000, Chapter V
The Monetary System and Growth During the Commercial RevolutionMay 2000, Box 5.2
The Great DepressionApril 2002, Box 3.2
Historical Evidence on Financial CrisesApril 2002, Box 3.3
A Historical Perspective on Booms, Busts, and RecessionsApril 2003, Box 2.1
Institutional Development: The Influence of History and GeographyApril 2003, Box 3.1
Long-Term Interest Rates from a Historical PerspectiveApril 2006, Box 1.1
Recycling Petrodollars in the 1970sApril 2006, Box 2.2
Staff Studies for the

World Economic Outlook
Globalization and Growth in the Twentieth Century Nicholas CraftsMay 2000
The International Monetary System in the (Very) Long Run Barry Eichengreen and Nathan SussmanMay 2000
External Imbalances Then and NowApril 2005, Box 3.1

III. Economic Growth—Sources and Patterns

World Economic Outlook
Saving in a Growing World EconomyMay 1995, Chapter V
North-South R&D SpilloversMay 1995, Box 6
Long-Term Growth Potential in the Countries in TransitionOctober 1996, Chapter V
Globalization and the Opportunities for Developing CountriesMay 1997, Chapter IV
Measuring Productivity Gains in East Asian EconomiesMay 1997, Box 9
The Business Cycle, International Linkages, and Exchange RatesMay 1998, Chapter III
The Asian Crisis and the Region’s Long-Term Growth PerformanceOctober 1998, Chapter III
Potential Macroeconomic Implications of the Year 2000 Computer BugMay 1999, Box 1.2
Growth Divergences in the United States, Europe, and Japan: Long-Run Trend or Cyclical?October 1999, Chapter III
How Can the Poorest Countries Catch Up?May 2000, Chapter IV
Trends in the Human Development IndexMay 2000, Box 5.1
Productivity Growth and IT in the Advanced EconomiesOctober 2000, Chapter II
Transition: Experience and Policy IssuesOctober 2000, Chapter III
Business Linkages in Major Advanced CountriesOctober 2001, Chapter II
How Do Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Advanced Countries Affect the Developing Countries?October 2001, Chapter II
Confidence SpilloversOctober 2001, Box 2.1
Channels of Business Cycle Transmission to Developing CountriesOctober 2001, Box 2.2
The Information Technology RevolutionOctober 2001, Chapter III
Has the IT Revolution Reduced Output Volatility?October 2001, Box 3.4
The Impact of Capital Account Liberalization on Economic PerformanceOctober 2001, Box 4.2
How Has September 11 Influenced the Global Economy?December 2001, Chapter II
The Long-Term Impact of September 11December 2001, Box 2.1
Is Wealth Increasingly Driving Consumption?April 2002, Chapter II
Recessions and RecoveriesApril 2002, Chapter III
Was It a Global Recession?April 2002, Box 1.1
How Important Is the Wealth Effect on Consumption?April 2002, Box 2.1
A Household Perspective on the Wealth EffectApril 2002, Box 2.2
Measuring Business CyclesApril 2002, Box 3.1
Economic Fluctuations in Developing CountriesApril 2002, Box 3.4
How Will Recent Falls in Equity Markets Affect Activity?September 2002, Box 1.1
Reversal of Fortune: Productivity Growth in Europe and the United StatesSeptember 2002, Box 1.3
Growth and InstitutionsApril 2003, Chapter III
Is the New Economy Dead?April 2003, Box 1.2
Have External Anchors Accelerated Institutional Reform in Practice?April 2003, Box 3.2
Institutional Development: The Role of the IMFApril 2003, Box 3.4
How Would War in Iraq Affect the Global Economy?April 2003, Appendix 1.2
How Can Economic Growth in the Middle East and North Africa Region Be Accelerated?September 2003, Chapter II
Recent Changes in Monetary and Financial Conditions in the Major Currency AreasSeptember 2003, Box 1.1
Accounting for Growth in the Middle East and North AfricaSeptember 2003, Box 2.1
Managing Increasing Aid Flows to Developing CountriesSeptember 2003, Box 1.3
Fostering Structural Reforms in Industrial CountriesApril 2004, Chapter III
How Will Demographic Change Affect the Global Economy?September 2004, Chapter III
HIV/AIDS: Demographic, Economic, and Fiscal ConsequencesSeptember 2004, Box 3.3
Implications of Demographic Change for Health Care SystemsSeptember 2004, Box 3.4
Workers’ Remittances and Economic DevelopmentApril 2005, Chapter II
Output Volatility in Emerging Market and Developing CountriesApril 2005, Chapter II
How Does Macroeconomic Instability Stifle Sub-Saharan African Growth?April 2005, Box 1.5
How Should Middle Eastern and Central Asian Oil Exporters Use Their Oil Revenues?April 2005, Box 1.6
Why Is Volatility Harmful?April 2005, Box 2.3
Building InstitutionsSeptember 2005, Chapter III
Return on Investment in Industrial and Developing CountriesSeptember 2005, Box 2.2
The Use of Specific Levers to Reduce CorruptionSeptember 2005, Box 3.2
Examining the Impact of Unrequited Transfers on InstitutionsSeptember 2005, Box 3.3
The Impact of Recent Housing Market Adjustments in Industrial CountriesApril 2006, Box 1.2
Awash With Cash: Why Are Corporate Savings So High?April 2006, Chapter IV
The Global Implications of an Avian Flu PandemicApril 2006, Appendix 1.2
Asia Rising: Patterns of Economic Development and GrowthSeptember 2006, Chapter 3
Japan’s Potential Output and Productivity GrowthSeptember 2006, Box 3.1
The Evolution and Impact of Corporate Governance Quality in AsiaSeptember 2006, Box 3.2
Staff Studies for the

World Economic Outlook
How Large Was the Output Collapse in Russia? Alternative Estimates and Welfare Implications Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Vincent KoenSeptember 1995
Deindustrialization: Causes and Implications Robert Rowthorn and Ramana RamaswamyDecember 1997

IV. Inflation and Deflation; Commodity Markets

World Economic Outlook
The Rise and Fall of Inflation—Lessons from Postwar ExperienceOctober 1996, Chapter VI
World Oil Market: Recent Developments and OutlookOctober 1996, Annex II
Inflation TargetsOctober 1996, Box 8
Indexed Bonds and Expected InflationOctober 1996, Box 9
Effects of High Inflation on Income DistributionOctober 1996, Box 10
Central Bank Independence and InflationOctober 1996, Box 11
Recent Developments in Primary Commodity MarketsMay 1998, Annex II
Japan’s Liquidity TrapOctober 1998, Box 4.1
Safeguarding Macroeconomic Stability at Low InflationOctober 1999, Chapter IV
Global LiquidityOctober 1999, Box 4.4
Cycles in Nonfuel Commodity PricesMay 2000, Box 2.2
Booms and Slumps in the World Oil MarketMay 2000, Box 2.3
Commodity Prices and Commodity Exporting CountriesOctober 2000, Chapter II
Developments in the Oil MarketsOctober 2000, Box 2.2
The Decline of Inflation in Emerging Markets: Can It Be Maintained?May 2001, Chapter IV
The Global Slowdown and Commodity PricesMay 2001, Chapter I, Appendix 1
Why Emerging Market Countries Should Strive to Preserve Lower InflationMay 2001, Box 4.1
Is There a Relationship Between Fiscal Deficits and Inflation?May 2001, Box 4.2
How Much of a Concern Is Higher Headline Inflation?October 2001, Box 1.2
Primary Commodities and Semiconductor MarketsOctober 2001, Chapter I, Appendix 1
Can Inflation Be Too Low?April 2002, Box 2.3
Could Deflation Become a Global Problem?April 2003, Box 1.1
Housing Markets in Industrial CountriesApril 2004, Box 1.2
Is Global Inflation Coming Back?September 2004, Box 1.1
What Explains the Recent Run-Up in House Prices?September 2004, Box 2.1
Will the Oil Market Continue to Be Tight?April 2005, Chapter IV
Should Countries Worry About Oil Price Fluctuations?April 2005, Box 4.1
Data Quality in the Oil MarketApril 2005, Box 4.2
Long-Term Inflation Expectations and CredibilitySeptember 2005, Box 4.2
The Boom in Nonfuel Commodity Prices: Can It Last?September 2006, Chapter 5
Commodity Price Shocks, Growth, and Financing in Sub-Saharan AfricaSeptember 2006, Box 2.2
International Oil Companies and National Oil Companies in a Changing Oil Sector EnvironmentSeptember 2006, Box 1.4
Has Speculation Contributed to Higher Commodity Prices?September 2006, Box 5.1
Agricultural Trade Liberalization and Commodity PricesSeptember 2006, Box 5.2
Recent Developments in Commodity MarketsSeptember 2006,
Appendix 2.1
Staff Studies for the

World Economic Outlook
Prices in the Transition: Ten Stylized Facts Vincent Koen and Paula R. De MasiDecember 1997

V. Fiscal Policy

World Economic Outlook
Structural Fiscal Balances in Smaller Industrial CountriesMay 1995, Annex III
Can Fiscal Contraction Be Expansionary in the Short Run?May 1995, Box 2
Pension Reform in Developing CountriesMay 1995, Box 11
Effects of Increased Government Debt: Illustrative CalculationsMay 1995, Box 13
Subsidies and Tax ArrearsOctober 1995, Box 8
Focus on Fiscal PolicyMay 1996
The Spillover Effects of Government DebtMay 1996, Annex I
Uses and Limitations of Generational AccountingMay 1996, Box 5
The European Union’s Stability and Growth PactOctober 1997, Box 3
Progress with Fiscal Reform in Countries in TransitionMay 1998, Chapter V
Pension Reform in Countries in TransitionMay 1998, Box 10
Transparency in Government OperationsMay 1998, Annex I
The Asian Crisis: Social Costs and Mitigating PoliciesOctober 1998, Box 2.4
Fiscal Balances in the Asian Crisis Countries: Effects of Changes in the Economic Environment Versus Policy MeasuresOctober 1998, Box 2.5
Aging in the East Asian Economies: Implications for Government Budgets and Saving RatesOctober 1998, Box 3.1
Orienting Fiscal Policy in the Medium Term in Light of the Stability and Growth Pact and Longer-Term Fiscal NeedsOctober 1998, Box 5.2
Comparing G-7 Fiscal Positions—Who Has a Debt Problem?October 1999, Box 1.3
Social Spending, Poverty Reduction, and Debt Relief in Heavily Indebted Poor CountriesMay 2000, Box 4.3
Fiscal Improvement in Advanced Economies: How Long Will It Last?May 2001, Chapter III
Impact of Fiscal Consolidation on Macroeconomic PerformanceMay 2001, Box 3.3
Fiscal Frameworks in Advanced and Emerging Market EconomiesMay 2001, Box 3.4
Data on Public Debt in Emerging Market EconomiesSeptember 2003, Box 3.1
Fiscal Risk: Contingent Liabilities and DemographicsSeptember 2003, Box 3.2
Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under UncertaintySeptember 2003, Box 3.3
The Case for Growth-Indexed BondsSeptember 2003, Box 3.4
Public Debt in Emerging Markets: Is It Too High?September 2003, Chapter III
Has Fiscal Behavior Changed Under the European Economic and Monetary Union?September 2004, Chapter II
Bringing Small Entrepreneurs into the Formal EconomySeptember 2004, Box 1.5
HIV/AIDS: Demographic, Economic, and Fiscal ConsequencesSeptember 2004, Box 3.3
Implications of Demographic Change for Health Care SystemsSeptember 2004, Box 3.4
Impact of Aging on Public Pension PlansSeptember 2004, Box 3.5
How Should Middle Eastern and Central Asian Oil Exporters Use Their Oil Revenues?April 2005, Box 1.6
Financial Globalization and the Conduct of Macroeconomic PoliciesApril 2005, Box 3.3
Is Public Debt in Emerging Markets Still Too High?September 2005, Box 1.1
Improved Emerging Market Fiscal Performance: Cyclical or Structural?September 2006, Box 2.1

VI. Monetary Policy; Financial Markets; Flow of Funds

World Economic Outlook
Saving in a Growing World EconomyMay 1995, Chapter V
Saving and Real Interest Rates in Developing CountriesMay 1995, Box 10
Financial Market Turmoil and Economic Policies in Industrial CountriesOctober 1995, Chapter III
Financial Liberalization in Africa and AsiaOctober 1995, Box 4
Policy Challenges Facing Industrial Countries in the Late 1990sOctober 1996, Chapter III
Using the Slope of the Yield Curve to Estimate Lags in Monetary Transmission MechanismOctober 1996, Box 2
Financial RepressionOctober 1996, Box 5
Bank-Restructuring Strategies in the Baltic States, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union: Main Issues and ChallengesOctober 1996, Box 7
Monetary and Financial Sector Policies in Transition CountriesOctober 1997, Chapter V
DollarizationOctober 1997, Box 6
Interim Assessment (Focus on Crisis in Asia—Regional and Global Implications)December 1997
Financial Crises: Characteristics and Indicators of VulnerabilityMay 1998, Chapter IV
The Role of Hedge Funds in Financial MarketsMay 1998, Box 1
International Monetary System: Measures to Reduce the Risk of CrisesMay 1998, Box 3
Resolving Banking Sector ProblemsMay 1998, Box 6
Effective Banking Prudential Regulations and RequirementsMay 1998, Box 7
Strengthening the Architecture of the International Monetary System Through International Standards and Principles of Good PracticeOctober 1998, Box 1.2
The Role of Monetary Policy in Responding to Currency CrisesOctober 1998, Box 2.3
Summary of Structural Reforms in Crisis CountriesOctober 1998, Box 3.2
Japan’s Liquidity TrapOctober 1998, Box 4.1
How Useful Are Taylor Rules as a Guide to ECB Monetary Policies?October 1998, Box 5.1
The Crisis in Emerging MarketsDecember 1998, Chapter II
Turbulence in Mature Financial MarketsDecember 1998, Chapter III
What Is the Implied Future Earnings Growth Rate that Would Justify Current Equity Prices in the United States?December 1998, Box 3.2
LeverageDecember 1998, Box 3.3
The Near Collapse and Rescue of Long-Term Capital ManagementDecember 1998, Box 3.4
Risk Management: Progress and ProblemsDecember 1998, Box 3.5
Supervisory Reforms Relating to Risk ManagementDecember 1998, Box 3.6
Emerging Market Banking SystemsDecember 1998, Annex
International Financial ContagionMay 1999, Chapter III
From Crisis to Recovery in the Emerging Market EconomiesOctober 1999, Chapter II
Safeguarding Macroeconomic Stability at Low InflationOctober 1999, Chapter IV
The Effects of a Zero Floor for Nominal Interest Rates on Real Output: Selected Simulation ResultsOctober 1999, Box 4.2
Asset Prices and Business CycleMay 2000, Chapter III
Global Liquidity and Asset PricesMay 2000, Box 3.2
International Capital Flows to Emerging MarketsOctober 2000, Chapter II
Developments in Global Equity MarketsOctober 2000, Chapter II
U.S. Monetary Policy and Sovereign Spreads in Emerging MarketsOctober 2000, Box 2.1
Impact of the Global Technology Correction on the Real EconomyMay 2001, Chapter II
Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies: Implementation and ChallengesMay 2001, Box 4.3
Financial Market Dislocations and Policy Responses After the September 11 AttacksDecember 2001, Box 2.2
Investor Risk AppetiteDecember 2001, Box 2.3
Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation EraApril 2002, Chapter II
The Introduction of Euro Notes and CoinsApril 2002, Box 1.3
Cross-Country Determinants of Capital StructureSeptember 2002, Box 2.3
When Bubbles BurstApril 2003, Chapter II
How Do Balance Sheet Vulnerabilities Affect Investment?April 2003, Box 2.3
Identifying Asset Price Booms and BustsApril 2003, Appendix 2.1
Are Foreign Exchange Reserves in Asia Too High?September 2003, Chapter II
Reserves and Short-Term DebtSeptember 2003, Box 2.3
Are Credit Booms in Emerging Markets a Concern?April 2004, Chapter IV
How Do U.S. Interest and Exchange Rates Affect Emerging Markets’ Balance Sheets?April 2004, Box 2.1
Does Financial Sector Development Help Economic Growth and Welfare?April 2004, Box 4.1
Adjustable- or Fixed-Rate Mortgages: What Influences a Country’s Choices?September 2004, Box 2.2
What Are the Risks from Low U.S. Long-Term Interest Rates?April 2005, Box 1.2
Regulating RemittancesApril 2005, Box 2.2
Financial Globalization and the Conduct of Macroeconomic PoliciesApril 2005, Box 3.3
Monetary Policy in a Globalized WorldApril 2005, Box 3.4
Does Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Markets?September 2005, Chapter IV
A Closer Look at Inflation Targeting Alternatives: Money and Exchange Rate TargetsSeptember 2005, Box 4.1
How Has Globalization Affected Inflation?April 2006, Chapter III
The Impact of Petrodollars on U.S. and Emerging Market Bond YieldsApril 2006, Box 2.3
Globalization and Inflation in Emerging MarketsApril 2006, Box 3.1
Globalization and Low Inflation in a Historical PerspectiveApril 2006, Box 3.2
Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import PricesApril 2006, Box 3.3
Trends in the Financial Sector’s Profits and SavingsApril 2006, Box 4.2
How Do Financial Systems Affect Economic Cycles?September 2006, Chapter 4
Financial Leverage and Debt DeflationSeptember 2006, Box 4.1
Staff Studies for the

World Economic Outlook
The Global Real Interest Rate Thomas Helbling and Robert WescottSeptember 1995
A Monetary Impulse Measure for Medium-Term Policy Analysis Bennett T. McCallum and Monica HargravesSeptember 1995
Saving Behavior in Industrial and Developing Countries Paul R. Masson, Tamim Bayoumi, and Hossein SamieiSeptember 1995
Capital Structure and Corporate Performance Across Emerging MarketsSeptember 2002, Chapter II

VII. Labor Market Issues

World Economic Outlook
Capital Formation and EmploymentMay 1995, Box 4
Implications of Structural Reforms Under EMUOctober 1997, Annex II
Euro-Area Structural RigiditiesOctober 1998, Box 5.3
Chronic Unemployment in the Euro Area: Causes and CuresMay 1999, Chapter IV
Labor Market Slack: Concepts and MeasurementMay 1999, Box 4.1
EMU and European Labor MarketsMay 1999, Box 4.2
Labor Markets—An Analytical FrameworkMay 1999, Box 4.3
The OECD Jobs StudyMay 1999, Box 4.4
The Effects of Downward Rigidity of Nominal Wages on (Un)employment: Selected Simulation ResultsOctober 1999, Box 4.1
Unemployment and Labor Market Institutions: Why Reforms Pay OffApril 2003, Chapter IV
Regional Disparities in UnemploymentApril 2003, Box 4.1
Labor Market Reforms in the European UnionApril 2003, Box 4.2
Staff Studies for the

World Economic Outlook
Evaluating Unemployment Policies: What Do the Underlying Theories Tell Us? Dennis J. SnowerSeptember 1995
Institutional Structure and Labor Market Outcomes: Western Lessons for European Countries in Transition Robert J. FlanaganSeptember 1995
The Effect of Globalization on Wages in the Advanced Economies Matthew J. Slaughter and Phillip SwagelDecember 1997
International Labor Standards and International Trade Stephen GolubDecember 1997
EMU Challenges European Labor Markets Rüdiger Soltwedel, Dirk Dohse, and Christiane Krieger-BodenMay 2000

VIII. Exchange Rate Issues

World Economic Outlook
Exchange Rate Effects of Fiscal ConsolidationOctober 1995, Annex
Exchange Rate Arrangements and Economic Performance in Developing CountriesOctober 1997, Chapter IV
Asymmetric Shocks: European Union and the United StatesOctober 1997, Box 4
Currency BoardsOctober 1997, Box 5
The Business Cycle, International Linkages, and Exchange RatesMay 1998, Chapter III
Evaluating Exchange RatesMay 1998, Box 5
Determining Internal and External Conversion Rates for the EuroOctober 1998, Box 5.4
The Euro Area and Effective Exchange RatesOctober 1998, Box 5.5
Recent Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate MovementsDecember 1998, Box 3.1
International Financial ContagionMay 1999, Chapter III
Exchange Rate Crashes and Inflation: Lessons for BrazilMay 1999, Box 2.1
Recent Experience with Exchange-Rate-Based StabilizationsMay 1999, Box 3.1
The Pros and Cons of DollarizationMay 2000, Box 1.4
Why Is the Euro So Undervalued?October 2000, Box 1.1
Convergence and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in the EU Accession CountriesOctober 2000, Box 4.4
What Is Driving the Weakness of the Euro and the Strength of the Dollar?May 2001, Chapter II
The Weakness of the Australian and New Zealand CurrenciesMay 2001, Box 2.1
How Did the September 11 Attacks Affect Exchange Rate Expectations?December 2001, Box 2.4
Market Expectations of Exchange Rate MovementsSeptember 2002, Box 1.2
Are Foreign Exchange Reserves in Asia Too High?September 2003, Chapter II
How Concerned Should Developing Countries Be About G-3 Exchange Rate Volatility?September 2003, Chapter II
Reserves and Short-Term DebtSeptember 2003, Box 2.3
The Effects of a Falling DollarApril 2004, Box 1.1
Learning to Float: The Experience of Emerging Market Countries Since the Early 1990sSeptember 2004, Chapter II
How Did Chile, India, and Brazil Learn to Float?September 2004, Box 2.3
Foreign Exchange Market Development and InterventionSeptember 2004, Box 2.4
How Emerging Market Countries May Be Affected by External ShocksSeptember 2006, Box 1.3
Staff Studies for the

World Economic Outlook
Multilateral Unit-Labor-Cost-Based Competitiveness Indicators for Advanced, Developing, and Transition Countries Anthony G. Turner and Stephen GolubDecember 1997
Currency Crises: In Search of Common Elements Jahangir Aziz, Francesco Caramazza and Ranil SalgadoMay 2000
Business Cycle Influences on Exchange Rates: Survey and Evidence Ronald MacDonald and Phillip SuragelMay 2000

IX. External Payments, Trade, Capital Movements, and Foreign Debt

World Economic Outlook
Trade Among the Transition CountriesOctober 1995, Box 7
World Current Account DiscrepancyOctober 1996, Annex III
Capital Inflows to Developing and Transition Countries—Identifying Causes and Formulating Appropriate Policy ResponsesOctober 1996, Annex IV
Globalization—Opportunities and ChallengesMay 1997
Moral Hazard and IMF LendingMay 1998, Box 2
The Current Account and External SustainabilityMay 1998, Box 8
Review of Debt-Reduction Efforts for Low-Income Countries and Status of the HIPC InitiativeOctober 1998, Box 1.1
Trade Adjustment in East Asian Crisis CountriesOctober 1998, Box 2.2
Are There Dangers of Increasing Protection?May 1999, Box 1.3
Trends and Issues in the Global Trading SystemOctober 1999, Chapter V
Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies: Composition and VolatilityOctober 1999, Box 2.2
The Global Current Account DiscrepancyOctober 2000, Chapter I, Appendix II
Trade Integration and Sub-Saharan AfricaMay 2001, Chapter II
Sustainability of the U.S. External Current AccountMay 2001, Box 1.2
Reducing External BalancesMay 2001, Chapter I, Appendix 2
The World Trading System: From Seattle to DohaOctober 2001, Chapter II
International Financial Integration and Economic Performance: Impact on Developing CountriesOctober 2001, Chapter IV
Potential Welfare Gains From a New Trade RoundOctober 2001, Box 2.3
Critics of a New Trade RoundOctober 2001, Box 2.4
Foreign Direct Investment and the Poorer CountriesOctober 2001, Box 4.3
Country Experiences with Sequencing Capital Account LiberalizationOctober 2001, Box 4.4
Contagion and Its CausesDecember 2001, Chapter I, Appendix
Capital Account Crises in Emerging Market CountriesApril 2002, Box 3.5
How Have External Deficits Adjusted in the Past?September 2002, Box 2.2
Using Prices to Measure Goods Market IntegrationSeptember 2002, Box 3.1
Transport CostsSeptember 2002, Box 3.2
The Gravity Model of International TradeSeptember 2002, Box 3.3
Vertical Specialization in the Global EconomySeptember 2002, Box 3.4
Trade and GrowthSeptember 2002, Box 3.5
How Worrisome Are External Imbalances?September 2002, Chapter II
How Do Industrial Country Agricultural Policies Affect Developing Countries?September 2002, Chapter II
Trade and Financial IntegrationSeptember 2002, Chapter III
Risks to the Multilateral Trading SystemApril 2004, Box 1.3
Is the Doha Round Back on Track?September 2004, Box 1.3
Regional Trade Agreements and Integration: The Experience with NAFTASeptember 2004, Box 1.4
Globalization and External ImbalancesApril 2005, Chapter III
The Ending of Global Textile Trade QuotasApril 2005, Box 1.3
What Progress Has Been Made in Implementing Policies to Reduce Global Imbalances?April 2005, Box 1.4
Measuring a Country’s Net External PositionApril 2005, Box 3.2
Global Imbalances: A Saving and Investment PerspectiveSeptember 2005, Chapter II
Impact of Demographic Change on Saving, Investment, and Current Account BalancesSeptember 2005, Box 2.3
How Will Global Imbalances Adjust?September 2005, Appendix 1.2
Oil Prices and Global ImbalancesApril 2006, Chapter II
How Much Progress Has Been Made in Addressing Global Imbalances?April 2006, Box 1.4
The Doha Round After The Hong Kong SAR MeetingsApril 2006, Box 1.5
Capital Flows to Emerging Market Countries: a Long-Term PerspectiveSeptember 2006, Box 1.1
How Will Global Imbalances Adjust?September 2006, Box 2.1
Staff Studies for the

World Economic Outlook
Foreign Direct Investment in the World Economy Edward M. GrahamSeptember 1995
Trade and Financial Integration in Europe: Five Years After the Euro’s IntroductionSeptember 2004, Box 2.5

X. Regional Issues

World Economic Outlook
Adjustment in Sub-Saharan AfricaMay 1995, Annex II
Macroeconomic and Structural Adjustment in the Middle East and North AfricaMay 1996, Annex II
Stabilization and Reform of Formerly Centrally Planned Developing Economies in East AsiaMay 1997, Box 10
EMU and the World EconomyOctober 1997, Chapter III
Implications of Structural Reforms Under EMUOctober 1997, Annex II
The European Union’s Stability and Growth PactOctober 1997, Box 3
Asymmetric Shocks: European Union and the United StatesOctober 1997, Box 4
Interim Assessment (Focus on Crisis in Asia—Regional and Global Implications)December 1997
The Asian Crisis and the Region’s Long-Term Growth PerformanceOctober 1998, Chapter III
Economic Policy Challenges Facing the Euro Area and the External Implications of EMUOctober 1998, Chapter V
Economic Policymaking in the EU and Surveillance by EU InstitutionsOctober 1998, Chapter V, Appendix
Chronic Unemployment in the Euro Area: Causes and CuresMay 1999, Chapter IV
Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Performance, Impediments, and Policy RequirementsOctober 1999, Chapter VI
The Regional Economic Impact of the Kosovo CrisisOctober 1999, Box 1.5
Counting the Costs of the Recent CrisesOctober 1999, Box 2.6
Africa and World Trends in Military SpendingOctober 1999, Box 6.1
The Economic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Southern AfricaOctober 2000, Box 1.4
Accession of Transition Economies to the European Union: Prospects and PressuresOctober 2000, Chapter IV
The IMF and the Transition EconomiesOctober 2000, Box 3.1
Previous EU EnlargementsOctober 2000, Box 4.2
The Enhanced HIPC Initiative in AfricaMay 2001, Box 1.4
Large Current Account Deficits in EU Accession CountriesMay 2001, Box 1.5
Africa’s Trade and The Gravity ModelMay 2001, Box 2.2
The Implications of the Japanese Economic Slowdown for East AsiaOctober 2001, Box 1.4
Relative Euro-Area Growth Performances: Why Are Germany and Italy Lagging Behind France?October 2001, Box 1.5
Economic Growth, Civil Conflict, and Poverty Reduction in Sub-Saharan AfricaOctober 2001, Box 1.7
Information Technology and Growth in Emerging AsiaOctober 2001, Box 3.3
The IT Slump and Short-Term Growth Prospects in East AsiaOctober 2001, Box 3.5
The Effects of the September 11 Attacks on the Caribbean RegionDecember 2001, Box 3.3
Debt Crises: What’s Different About Latin America?April 2002, Chapter II
Foreign Direct Investment in AfricaSeptember 2002, Box 1.6
Promoting Stronger Institutions and Growth: The New Partnership for Africa’s DevelopmentApril 2003, Box 3.3
How Can Economic Growth in the Middle East and North Africa Region Be Accelerated?September 2003, Chapter II
Gulf Cooperation Council: Challenges on the Road to a Monetary UnionSeptember 2003, Box 1.5
Accounting for Growth in the Middle East and North AfricaSeptember 2003, Box 2.1
Is Emerging Asia Becoming an Engine of World Growth?April 2004, Box 1.4
What Works in AfricaApril 2004, Box 1.5
Economic Integration and Structural Reforms: The European ExperienceApril 2004, Box 3.4
What Are the Risks of Slower Growth in China?September 2004, Box 1.2
Governance Challenges and Progress in Sub-Saharan AfricaSeptember 2004, Box 1.6
The Indian Ocean Tsunami: Impact on South Asian EconomiesApril 2005, Box 1.1
Workers’ Remittances and Emigration in the CaribbeanApril 2005, Box 2.1
What Explains Divergent External Sector Performance in the Euro Area?September 2005, Box 1.3
Pressures Mount for African Cotton ProducersSeptember 2005, Box 1.5
Is Investment in Emerging Asia Too Low?September 2005, Box 2.4
Developing Institutions to Reflect Local Conditions: The Example of Ownership Transformation in China Versus Central and Eastern EuropeSeptember 2005, Box 3.1
How Rapidly Are Oil Exporters Spending Their Revenue Gains?April 2006, Box 2.1
Staff Studies for the

World Economic Outlook
The Design of EMU David BeggDecember 1997
The Great Contraction in Russia, the Baltics and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union: A View from the Supply Side Mark De Broeck and Vincent KoenMay 2000

XI. Country-Specific Analyses

World Economic Outlook
Factors Behind the Financial Crisis in MexicoMay 1995, Annex I
New Zealand’s Structural Reforms and Economic RevivalMay 1995, Box 3
Brazil and KoreaMay 1995, Box 5
The Output Collapse in RussiaMay 1995, Box 8
Foreign Direct Investment in EstoniaMay 1995, Box 9
September 1995 Economic Stimulus Packages in JapanOctober 1995, Box 1
Uganda: Successful Adjustment Under Difficult CircumstancesOctober 1995, Box 3
Changing Wage Structures in the Czech RepublicOctober 1995, Box 6
Resolving Financial System Problems in JapanMay 1996, Box 3
New Zealand’s Fiscal Responsibility ActMay 1996, Box 4
Deindustrialization and the Labor Market in SwedenMay 1997, Box 7
Ireland Catches UpMay 1997, Box 8
Foreign Direct Investment Strategies in Hungary and KazakhstanMay 1997, Box 12
China—Growth and Economic ReformsOctober 1997, Annex I
Alternative Exchange Rate Assumptions for JapanOctober 1997, Box 2
Hong Kong, China: Economic Linkages and Institutional ArrangementsOctober 1997, Box 9
Russia’s Fiscal ChallengesMay 1998, Box 9
Japan’s Economic Crisis and Policy OptionsOctober 1998, Chapter IV
Brazil’s Financial Assistance Package and Adjustment ProgramDecember 1998, Box 1.1
Recent Developments in the Japanese Financial SystemDecember 1998, Box 1.2
Malaysia’s Capital ControlsDecember 1998, Box 2.1
Hong Kong’s Intervention in the Equity Spot and Futures MarketsDecember 1998, Box 2.2
Is China’s Growth Overstated?December 1998, Box 4.1
Measuring Household Saving in the United StatesMay 1999, Box 2.2
Australia and New Zealand: Divergences, Prospects, and VulnerabilitiesOctober 1999, Box 1.1
The Emerging Market Crises and South AfricaOctober 1999, Box 2.1
Structural Reforms in Latin America: The Case of ArgentinaOctober 1999, Box 2.3
Malaysia’s Response to the Financial Crisis: How Unorthodox Was It?October 1999, Box 2.4
Financial Sector Restructuring in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and ThailandOctober 1999, Box 2.5
Turkey’s IMF-Supported Disinflation ProgramMay 2000, Box 2.1
Productivity and Stock Prices in the United StatesMay 2000, Box 3.1
India: Reinvigorating the Reform ProcessMay 2000, Box 4.2
Risky Business: Output Volatility and the Perils of Forecasting in JapanOctober 2000, Box 1.2
China’s Prospective WTO AccessionOctober 2000, Box 1.3
Addressing Barter Trade and Arrears in RussiaOctober 2000, Box 3.3
Fiscal Decentralization in Transition Economies: China and RussiaOctober 2000, Box 3.5
Accession of Turkey to the European UnionOctober 2000, Box 4.3
Japan’s Recent Monetary and Structural Policy InitiativesMay 2001, Box 1.3
Japan: A Fiscal Outlier?May 2001, Box 3.1
Financial Implications of the Shrinking Supply of U.S. Treasury SecuritiesMay 2001, Box 3.2
The Growth-Poverty Nexus in IndiaOctober 2001, Box 1.6
Has U.S. TFP Growth Accelerated Outside of the IT Sector?October 2001, Box 3.2
Fiscal Stimulus and the Outlook for the United StatesDecember 2001, Box 3.2
Argentina: An Uphill Struggle to Regain ConfidenceDecember 2001, Box 3.4
China’s Medium-Term Fiscal ChallengesApril 2002, Box 1.4
Rebuilding AfghanistanApril 2002, Box 1.5
Russia’s ReboundsApril 2002, Box 1.6
Brazil: The Quest to Restore Market ConfidenceSeptember 2002, Box 1.4
Where Is India in Terms of Trade Liberalization?September 2002, Box 1.5
How Important Are Banking Weaknesses in Explaining Germany’s Stagnation?April 2003, Box 1.3
Are Corporate Financial Conditions Related to the Severity of Recessions in the United States?April 2003, Box 2.2
Rebuilding Post-Conflict IraqSeptember 2003, Box 1.4
How Will the U.S. Budget Deficit Affect the Rest of the World?April 2004, Chapter II
China’s Emergence and Its Impact on the Global EconomyApril 2004, Chapter II
Can China Sustain Its Rapid Output Growth?April 2004, Box 2.3
Quantifying the International Impact of China’s WTO AccessionApril 2004, Box 2.4
Structural Reforms and Economic Growth: New Zealand’s ExperienceApril 2004, Box 3.1
Structural Reforms in the United Kingdom During the 1980sApril 2004, Box 3.2
The Netherlands: How the Interaction of Labor Market Reforms and Tax Cuts Led to Strong Employment GrowthApril 2004, Box 3.3
Why Is the U.S. International Income Account Still in the Black, and Will This Last?September, 2005, Box 1.2
Is India Becoming an Engine for Global Growth?September, 2005, Box 1.4
Saving and Investment in ChinaSeptember, 2005, Box 2.1
China’s GDP Revision: What Does It Mean for China and the Global Economy?April 2006, Box 1.6
Staff Studies for the

World Economic Outlook
How Large Was the Output Collapse in Russia? Alternative Estimates and Welfare Implications Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Vincent KoenSeptember, 1995

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The conversion rate for Greece was established prior to inclusion in the euro area on January 1, 2001.


Commission of the European Communities, International Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, United Nations, and World Bank, System of National Accounts 1993 (Brussels/Luxembourg, New York, Paris, and Washington, 1993); International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Manual, Fifth Edition (Washington, 1993); International Monetary Fund, Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (Washington, 2000); and International Monetary Fund, Government Finance Statistics Manual (Washington, 2001).


Charles Steindel, 1995, “Chain-Weighting: The New Approach to Measuring GDP,” Current Issues in Economics and Finance (Federal Reserve Bank of New York), Vol. 1 (December).


Averages for real GDP and its components, employment, per capita GDP, inflation, factor productivity, trades, and commodity prices are calculated based on compound annual rate of change except for the unemployment rate, which is based on simple arithmetic average.


See Box A2 of the April 2004 World Economic Outlook for a summary of the revised PPP-based weights and Annex IV of the May 1993 World Economic Outlook. See also Anne-Marie Gulde and Marianne Schulze-Ghattas, “Purchasing Power Parity Based Weights for the World Economic Outlook,” in Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook (International Monetary Fund, December 1993), pp. 106–23.


As used here, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. It also covers some territorial entities that are not states, but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.


During 1999–2003, 56 countries incurred external payments arrears or entered into official or commercial bank debt-rescheduling agreements. This group of countries is referred to as countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1999–2003.


See David Andrews, Anthony R. Boote, Syed S. Rizavi, and Sukwinder Singh, Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries: The Enhanced HIPC Initiative, IMF Pamphlet Series, No. 51 (Washington: International Monetary Fund, November 1999).

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