- International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
- Published Date:
- April 2016
World Economic and Financial Surveys
World Economic Outlook
Too Slow for Too Long
©2016 International Monetary Fund
Cover and Design: Luisa Menjivar and Jorge Salazar
Composition: AGS, An RR Donnelley Company
Joint Bank-Fund Library
Names: International Monetary Fund.
Title: World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)
Other titles: WEO | Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund) | World economic and financial surveys.
Description: Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 1980- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematic titles. | Began with issue for May 1980. | 1981-1984: Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund, 0251-6365 | 1986-: World economic and financial surveys, 0256-6877.
Identifiers: ISSN 0256-6877 (print) | ISSN 1564-5215 (online)
Subjects: LCSH: Economic development—Periodicals. | International economic relations—Periodicals. | Debts, External—Periodicals. | Balance of payments—Periodicals. | International finance—Periodicals. | Economic forecasting—Periodicals.
Classification: LCC HC10.W79
ISBN 978-1-49839-858-9 (paper)
The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year, in the spring and fall. The WEO is prepared by the IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions by Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on March 28, 2016. The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities.
Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund. 2016. World Economic Outlook: Too Slow for Too Long. Washington, April.
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- Assumptions and Conventions
- Further Information and Data
- Executive Summary
- Chapter 1. Recent Developments and Prospects
- Recent Developments and Prospects
- The Forecast
- A Pronounced Increase in Downside Risks
- Policy Priorities
- Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on the Energy Transition in an Era of Low Fossil Fuel Prices
- Annex 1.1. Regional Projections
- Scenario Box 1. The Estimated Impact of Lower Oil Prices
- Scenario Box 2. Responding to Secular Stagnation Forces
- Box 1.1. Dissecting the Global Trade Slowdown
- Box 1.2. Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook in Low-Income Developing Countries: The Role of External Factors
- Chapter 2. Understanding the Slowdown in Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
- Anatomy of the Slowdown in Net Capital Inflows
- Historical Comparisons: What Is Different This Time?
- What Is Driving the Recent Slowdown in Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies?
- Annex 2.1. Sample of Emerging Market Economies
- Annex 2.2. Data
- Annex 2.3. Methodology
- Box 2.1. Capital Flows to Low-Income Developing Countries
- Box 2.2. U.S. Monetary Policy and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
- Chapter 3. Time for a Supply-Side Boost? Macroeconomic Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies
- The Economics of Product and Labor Market Reforms: A Primer
- The Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms: A Model-Based Analysis
- The Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms: An Empirical Analysis
- Summary and Policy Implications
- Annex 3.1. Modeling the Effects of Product and Labor Market Reforms
- Annex 3.2. Identification of Reforms and Policy Shocks
- Annex 3.3. The Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms: Empirical Analysis
- Annex 3.4. Country Coverage and Data Sources
- Box 3.1. Breaking the Deadlock: Identifying the Political Economy Drivers of Structural Reforms
- Box 3.2. Reforming Collective-Bargaining Systems to Achieve High and Stable Employment
- Box 3.3. The Potential Productivity Gains from Further Trade and Foreign Direct Investment Liberalization
- Box 3.4. Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Some Case Studies Using the Synthetic Control Method
- Statistical Appendix
- What’s New
- Data and Conventions
- Country Notes
- Classification of Countries
- General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification
- Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2015
- Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup
- Table C. European Union
- Table D. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings
- Table E. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Low-Income Developing Countries
- Table F. Economies with Exceptional Reporting Periods
- Table G. Key Data Documentation
- Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies
- List of Tables
- World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics
- IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, March 2016
- Table 1.1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
- Annex Table 1.1.1. European Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
- Annex Table 1.1.2. Asian and Pacific Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
- Annex Table 1.1.3. Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
- Annex Table 1.1.4. Commonwealth of Independent States Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
- Annex Table 1.1.5. Middle East and North African Economies, Afghanistan, and Pakistan: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
- Annex Table 1.1.6. Sub-Saharan African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
- Table 1.SF.1. World Energy Usage, 2013
- Table 1.SF.2. Summary of Severe Accidents in the Energy Sector, 1970–2008
- Table 1.SF.3. Global Share of Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Country
- Table 1.SF.4. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Target Reductions, Paris Agreement, December 2015
- Table 2.1. Foreign Reserves and the Current Account in Balance of Payments Adjustments
- Table 2.2. Large Depreciations, Banking Sector Stress, and External Crises during Slowdown Episodes
- Annex Table 2.1.1. Countries in the Chapter’s Emerging Market Economies Sample
- Annex Table 2.1.2. External Crisis Episodes, 1980–2015
- Annex Table 2.1.3. Large Depreciation Episodes, 1995–2000
- Annex Table 2.1.4. Large Depreciation Episodes, 2010–15
- Annex Table 2.3.1. Role of Global Factors in Explaining Gross Capital Inflows
- Annex Table 2.3.2. Role of Global Factors in Explaining Gross Capital Outflows
- Annex Table 2.3.3. Role of Country Characteristics in Explaining Gross Capital Inflows
- Annex Table 2.3.4. Role of Country Characteristics in Explaining Gross Capital Outflows
- Annex Table 2.3.5. Role of Interaction Terms in Explaining Gross Capital Inflows
- Annex Table 2.3.6. Role of Country Characteristics and Global Factors in Explaining Gross Capital Inflows
- Table 2.2.1. Short-Term Determinants of Emerging Market Fund Flows
- Table 3.1 Effect of Product and Labor Market Reforms on Macroeconomic Outcomes
- Annex Table 3.2.1. Examples of Reforms Identified
- Annex Table 3.4.1. Country Coverage
- Annex Table 3.4.2. Macroeconomic Data Sources
- Table 3.1.1. Drivers of Reforms
- Table A1. Summary of World Output
- Table A2. Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand
- Table A3. Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP
- Table A4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP
- Table A5. Summary of Inflation
- Table A6. Advanced Economies: Consumer Prices
- Table A7. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices
- Table A8. Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
- Table A9. Summary of World Trade Volumes and Prices
- Table A10. Summary of Current Account Balances
- Table A11. Advanced Economies: Balance on Current Account
- Table A12. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Balance on Current Account
- Table A13. Summary of Financial Account Balances
- Table A14. Summary of Net Lending and Borrowing
- Table A15. Summary of World Medium-Term Baseline Scenario
- Online Tables
- Table B1. Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real GDP per Capita
- Table B2. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP
- Table B3. Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing
- Table B4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices
- Table B5. Summary of Fiscal and Financial Indicators
- Table B6. Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Net Lending/Borrowing and General Government Net Lending/Borrowing Excluding Social Security Schemes
- Table B7. Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances
- Table B8. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing and Overall Fiscal Balance
- Table B9. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing
- Table B10. Selected Advanced Economies: Exchange Rates
- Table B11. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Broad Money Aggregates
- Table B12. Advanced Economies: Export Volumes, Import Volumes, and Terms of Trade in Goods and Services
- Table B13. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: Total Trade in Goods
- Table B14. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Source of Export Earnings: Total Trade in Goods
- Table B15. Summary of Current Account Transactions
- Table B16. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Summary of External Debt and Debt Service
- Table B17. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: External Debt by Maturity
- Table B18. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: External Debt by Maturity
- Table B19. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Ratio of External Debt to GDP
- Table B20. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Debt-Service Ratios
- Table B21. Emerging Market and Developing Economies, Medium-Term Baseline Scenario: Selected Economic Indicators
- Figure 1.1. Global Activity Indicators
- Figure 1.2. Global Inflation
- Figure 1.3. Commodity and Oil Markets
- Figure 1.4. Real Effective Exchange Rate Changes, August 2015–February 2016
- Figure 1.5. Emerging Market Economies: Capital Flows
- Figure 1.6. Advanced Economies: Monetary and Financial Market Conditions
- Figure 1.7. Advanced Economies: Credit, House Prices, and Balance Sheets
- Figure 1.8. Emerging Market Economies: Interest Rates
- Figure 1.9. Emerging Market Economies: Equity Markets and Credit
- Figure 1.10. China’s Share of Value-Added Exports and Change in Export Volume Growth
- Figure 1.11. Terms-of-Trade Windfall Gains and Losses, Domestic Demand, Imports, and Output
- Figure 1.12. Energy and Mining Investment
- Figure 1.13. Global Investment and Trade Slowdown
- Figure 1.14. Fiscal Policies
- Figure 1.15. External Sector
- Figure 1.16. Creditors versus Debtors
- Figure 1.17. Risks to the Global Outlook
- Figure 1.18. Recession and Deflation Risks
- Scenario Figure 1. Decomposition of the Change in Oil Prices: 2014 World Economic Outlook versus April 2016 World Economic Outlook
- Scenario Figure 2. Oil Scenario
- Scenario Figure 3. Secular Stagnation and Reform
- Figure 1.SF.1. Commodity Market Developments
- Figure 1.SF.2. World Energy Intensity
- Figure 1.SF.3. Car Ownership and GDP per Capita, 2013
- Figure 1.SF.4. World Energy Consumption Share by Fuel Type
- Figure 1.SF.5. Carbon Emissions for Various Fuels
- Figure 1.SF.6. Electricity Generation
- Figure 1.SF.7. Cost of Renewables and Research and Development Efforts
- Figure 1.SF.8. U.S. Sales of Electric Vehicles and Gasoline Price
- Figure 1.SF.9. Duck Curve: Illustrative Change in Projections of Net Load Curve
- Figure 1.SF.10. World Patents
- Figure 1.SF.11. Direct Normal Irradiation
- Figure 1.1.1. Trade and Output Growth
- Figure 1.1.2. Import Elasticity
- Figure 1.1.3. Import Volume Index by End Use
- Figure 1.1.4. Capital Goods Import Volume Index
- Figure 1.2.1. Low-Income Developing Countries: Real GDP Growth
- Figure 1.2.2. Low-Income Developing Countries: Purchasing-Power-Parity GDP Shares
- Figure 1.2.3. Terms-of-Trade Windfall Gains and Losses
- Figure 1.2.4. Trading Partners’ GDP Growth Changes
- Figure 1.2.5. Sovereign Bond Spreads in Low-Income Developing Countries
- Figure 1.2.6. Simulated Effects of Lower Oil Prices on Growth and Public Debt in Low-Income Developing Countries
- Figure 2.1. Net Capital Inflows to Emerging Market Economies and Number of Debt Crises, 1980–2015:Q3
- Figure 2.2. Net Capital Inflows to Emerging Market Economies, 2000–15:Q3
- Figure 2.3. Capital Inflows and Outflows for Emerging Market Economies, 2000–15:Q3
- Figure 2.4. Capital Inflows and Outflows for Emerging Market Economies by Asset Type: 2000–15:Q3
- Figure 2.5. Net Capital Inflows by Region, 2000–15:Q3
- Figure 2.6. Net Reserve Assets of Emerging Market Economies, 2000–15:Q3
- Figure 2.7. Exchange Rates of Emerging Market Economies, 2010–15:Q3
- Figure 2.8. Net Capital Inflow Slowdown and Exchange Rate Changes, 2010–15:Q3
- Figure 2.9. Cost of Financing, Sovereign Spreads, and Capital Flows in Emerging Market Economies
- Figure 2.10. Three Major Net Capital Inflow Slowdown Episodes
- Figure 2.11. External Balance Sheets of Emerging Market Economies, 1980–2014
- Figure 2.12. Gross Capital Inflows and Outflows of Emerging Market Economies, 1980–2014
- Figure 2.13. Net External Debt Liabilities of Emerging Market Economies, 1980–2014
- Figure 2.14. Outstanding Debt of Emerging Market Economies Denominated in Domestic Currency, 1995–2015
- Figure 2.15. Net Capital Outflows and the Current Account during the 2010–15 Slowdown
- Figure 2.16. Nominal Effective Exchange Rate Adjustment in 1995–2000 and 2010–15:Q3
- Figure 2.17. Role of Global Factors in the Recent Slowdown
- Figure 2.18. Estimated Time Fixed Effects and Average Gross Capital Inflows to Emerging Market Economies
- Figure 2.19. Share of Variation in Gross Capital Inflows Explained by Global Factors
- Figure 2.20. 2010–15 Gross Capital Inflow Slowdown and Country-Specific Characteristics
- Figure 2.21. Differences in the Contribution of Global Factors between More and Less Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes
- Figure 2.1.1. Net Capital Inflows to Low-Income Developing Countries, 2000–14
- Figure 2.1.2. Capital Inflows and Outflows of Low-Income Developing Countries, 2000–14
- Figure 2.1.3. Capital Inflows to Low-Income Developing Countries by Asset Type and Net Capital Inflows by Region, 2000–14
- Figure 2.1.4. Net Reserve Assets and Current Account Balance, 2000–14
- Figure 2.1.5. Net Capital Inflows to Low-Income Developing Countries, 2012–15, Restricted Sample
- Figure 2.1.6. Exchange Rates of Low-Income Developing Countries, 2009–15:Q3
- Figure 2.2.1. Correlation between Emerging Market Fund Flows and Emerging Market Total Portfolio Inflows
- Figure 3.1. Evolution of Potential Output Growth and Its Components in Advanced Economies
- Figure 3.2. Evolution of Product Market Regulations
- Figure 3.3. Evolution of Labor Market Institutions
- Figure 3.4. Selected Model Results
- Figure 3.5. Macroeconomic Effects of Product Market Reforms
- Figure 3.6. Direct and Indirect Sectoral Output Effects of Product Market Reforms
- Figure 3.7. Direct Effects of Product Market Reforms on Incumbent Firms’ Output
- Figure 3.8. Direct Effects of Product Market Reforms on Incumbent Firms’ Employment: The Role of Firm Size
- Figure 3.9. Direct Effects of Product Market Reforms on Incumbent Firms’ Investment: The Role of Financial Conditions
- Figure 3.10. Macro and Sectoral Effects of Employment Protection Legislation Reforms
- Figure 3.11. Unemployment Effects of Unemployment Benefit Reforms
- Figure 3.12. Macroeconomic Effects of Labor Tax Wedge Cuts
- Figure 3.13. Macroeconomic Effects of Spending Shocks on Active Labor Market Policies
- Figure 3.14. Role of Fiscal Policy in Shaping the Effects of Employment Protection Legislation and Unemployment Benefit Reforms on Unemployment
- Figure 3.15. Effects of Reforms on Participation Rates of Women and Older Workers
- Annex Figure 3.2.1. Number of Reforms Identified
- Annex Figure 3.3.1. Effects of Reforms on Economic Activity: Robustness Check
- Figure 3.2.1. Portugal: Employment Growth during the Global Financial Crisis among Firms Not Affiliated with an Employer Association
- Figure 3.2.2. Change in Unemployment Rate
- Figure 3.3.1. Trade Liberalization
- Figure 3.4.1. Log of Real GDP per Capita in Purchasing-Power-Parity Terms
(April 11, 2016)
- Figure 1.9 on page 9 was corrected to include a portion of note 1 that was cut off in the original version.
- Scenario Figure 1 on page 15 was corrected to include the source line, which was omitted in the original version.
(May 25, 2016)
Page 89 was corrected to remove a repeated paragraph.
(July 11, 2016)
- The Sources and Note in Figure 2.14 on page 74 were replaced to correct an incorrect source attribution and provide some additional information.
Assumptions and Conventions
A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). It has been assumed that real effective exchange rates remained constant at their average levels during February 2–March 1, 2016, except for those for the currencies participating in the European exchange rate mechanism II (ERM II), which are assumed to have remained constant in nominal terms relative to the euro; that established policies of national authorities will be maintained (for specific assumptions about fiscal and monetary policies for selected economies, see Box A1 in the Statistical Appendix); that the average price of oil will be $34.75 a barrel in 2016 and $40.99 a barrel in 2017 and will remain unchanged in real terms over the medium term; that the six-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.9 percent in 2016 and 1.5 percent in 2017; that the three-month euro deposit rate will average −0.3 percent in 2016 and −0.4 percent in 2017; and that the six-month Japanese yen deposit rate will yield on average −0.1 percent in 2016 and −0.3 percent in 2017. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available through March 25, 2016.
The following conventions are used throughout the WEO:
… to indicate that data are not available or not applicable;
—between years or months (for example, 2015–16 or January—June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
/ between years or months (for example, 2015/16) to indicate a fiscal or financial year.
“Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
“Basis points” refers to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).
Data refer to calendar years, except in the case of a few countries that use fiscal years. Please refer to Table F in the Statistical Appendix, which lists the economies with exceptional reporting periods for national accounts and government finance data for each country.
For some countries, the figures for 2015 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns. Please refer to Table G in the Statistical Appendix, which lists the latest actual outturns for the indicators in the national accounts, prices, government finance, and balance of payments indicators for each country.
- Data for Macao Special Administrative Region and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico are included in data aggregated for the advanced economies. Macao is a Special Administrative Region of China, and Puerto Rico is a territory of the United States, but the WEO maintains statistical data for both economies on a separate and independent basis.
- Argentina’s and Venezuela’s consumer prices are excluded from all the WEO groups’ aggregates. In the tables and figures, the following conventions apply:
- If no source is listed on tables and figures, data are drawn from the WEO database.
- When countries are not listed alphabetically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size.
- Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals shown reflect rounding.
As used in this report, the terms “country” and “economy” do not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
Composite data are provided for various groups of countries organized according to economic characteristics or region. Unless noted otherwise, country group composites represent calculations based on 90 percent or more of the weighted group data.
The boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on the maps do not imply, on the part of the International Monetary Fund, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
Further Information and Data
This version of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) is available in full through the IMF eLibrary (www.elibrary.imf.org) and the IMF website (www.imf.org). Accompanying the publication on the IMF website is a larger compilation of data from the WEO database than is included in the report itself, including files containing the series most frequently requested by readers. These files may be downloaded for use in a variety of software packages.
The data appearing in the World Economic Outlook are compiled by the IMF staff at the time of the WEO exercises. The historical data and projections are based on the information gathered by the IMF country desk officers in the context of their missions to IMF member countries and through their ongoing analysis of the evolving situation in each country. Historical data are updated on a continual basis as more information becomes available, and structural breaks in data are often adjusted to produce smooth series with the use of splicing and other techniques. IMF staff estimates continue to serve as proxies for historical series when complete information is unavailable. As a result, WEO data can differ from those in other sources with official data, including the IMF’s International Financial Statistics.
The WEO data and metadata provided are “as is” and “as available,” and every effort is made to ensure their timeliness, accuracy, and completeness, but it cannot be guaranteed. When errors are discovered, there is a concerted effort to correct them as appropriate and feasible. Corrections and revisions made after publication are incorporated into the electronic editions available from the IMF eLibrary (www.elibrary.imf.org) and on the IMF website (www.imf.org). All substantive changes are listed in detail in the online tables of contents.
For details on the terms and conditions for usage of the WEO database, please refer to the IMF Copyright and Usage website (www.imf.org/external/terms.htm).
Inquiries about the content of the World Economic Outlook and the WEO database should be sent by mail, fax, or online forum (telephone inquiries cannot be accepted):
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The analysis and projections contained in the World Economic Outlook are integral elements of the IMF’s surveillance of economic developments and policies in its member countries, of developments in international financial markets, and of the global economic system. The survey of prospects and policies is the product of a comprehensive interdepartmental review of world economic developments, which draws primarily on information the IMF staff gathers through its consultations with member countries. These consultations are carried out in particular by the IMF’s area departments—namely, the African Department, Asia and Pacific Department, European Department, Middle East and Central Asia Department, and Western Hemisphere Department—together with the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, and the Fiscal Affairs Department.
The analysis in this report was coordinated in the Research Department under the general direction of Maurice Obstfeld, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research. The project was directed by Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Deputy Director, Research Department, and Oya Celasun, Division Chief, Research Department.
The primary contributors to this report were Rudolfs Bems, Luis Catão, Romain Duval, Davide Furceri, Alexander Hijzen, João Jalles, Sinem Kiliç Çelik, Zsóka Kóczán, Weicheng Lian, and Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro.
Other contributors include Jaebin Ahn, Juliana Araujo, Rabah Arezki, Gavin Asdorian, Aqib Aslam, Samya Beidas-Strom, Christian Bogmans, Romain Bouis, Emine Boz, Matteo Cacciatore, Eugenio Cerutti, Vanessa Diaz Montelongo, Angela Espiritu, Johannes Eugster, Rachel Yuting Fan, Giuseppe Fiori, Emily Forrest, Peter Gal, Fabio Ghironi, Eric Gould, Mitko Grigorov, Mahnaz Hemmati, Bingjie Hu, Ben Hunt, Carla Intal, Hao Jiang, Maria Jovanović, Sung Eun Jung, Alimata Kini Kaboré, Toh Kuan, Douglas Laxton, Christina Yun Liu, Prakash Loungani, Olivia Ma, Pedro Martins, Akito Matsumoto, Trevor Meadows, Giovanni Melina, Jakob Miethe, Susanna Mursula, Futoshi Narita, Huy Nguyen, Emory Oakes, Andrea Presbitero, Frantisek Ricka, Rachel Szy-manski, Nicholas Tong, Petia Topalova, Hou Wang, Jilun Xing, Hong Yang, Felipe Zanna, Yuan Zeng, Fan Zhang, and Hongyan Zhao. Michael Harrup from the Communications Department led the editorial team for the report, with production and editorial support from Christine Ebrahimzadeh and editorial assistance from Lucy Scott Morales, Linda Long, Lorraine Coffey, Gregg Forte, and EEI Communications.
The analysis has benefited from comments and suggestions by staff members from other IMF departments, as well as by Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on March 28, 2016. However, both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.