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Front Matter
- Takatoshi Ito, Tamim Bayoumi, Peter Isard, and Steven Symansky
- Published Date:
- December 1996
Exchange Rate Movements and Their Impact on Trade and Investment in the APEC Region
Takatoshi Ito, Peter Isard, Steven Symansky, and Tamim Bayoumi
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Washington, D.C.
December 1996
© 1996 International Monetary Fund
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Exchange rate movements and their impact on trade and investment in the APEC region / Takatoshi Ito… [et al.].
p. cm. — (Occasional paper; 145)
Includes bibliographic references.
ISBN 1-55775-600-7
1. Foreign exchange — Asia. 2. Foreign exchange — Pacific Area. 3. Capital movements — Asia. 4. Capital movements — Pacific Area. 5. Asia — Commerce. 6. Pacific Area — Commerce.
I. Itō, Takatoshi, 1950–. II. Series: Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund); no. 145.
HG3968.E94 1996
332.4’56’095—dc21
96-39240
CIP
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recycled paper
Contents
- Preface vii
- I Overview
- Takatoshi Ito and Peter hard
- II Long-Run Movements in Real Exchange RatesPeter Isard and Steven Symansky
- III International Trade and Real Exchange Rates
- Tamim Bayoumi
- IV Foreign Direct Investment and the Exchange Rate
- Tamim Bayoumi, Leonardo Bartolini, and Michael Klein
- Tables
- 1-1. Per Capita GDP of APEC Members
- 2-1. Payments Restrictions Maintained by APEC Members, 1974–93
- 2-2. Real Exchange Rates and Per Capita GDP
- 2-3. Real Exchange Rates and Proximate Determinants, 1973 and 1992
- 3-1. Real Growth in Trade of Goods and Services and Output, 1973–93
- 3-2. Weights of United States and Japan in Merchandise Trade in 1993
- 3-3. Estimated Activity Elasticities
- 3-4. Estimated Real Exchange Rate Elasticities
- 3-5. Effect of Major Regional Currencies on Trade in the APEC Region
- 3-6. Export Regression Results
- 3-7. Import Regression Results
- 4-1. Ratios of Inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to GDP
- 4-2. Composition of Net Capital Inflows for Selected APEC Economies, 1990–93
- 4-3. Cumulated Outflows of FDI from the United States and Japan, 1985–92
- 4-4. Results from FDI Regressions Using Real Effective Exchange Rates
- 4-5. Results from FDI Regressions Using Real Bilateral Exchange Rates
- Figures
- 2-1. Nominal Exchange Rates and Ratios of GDP Deflators
- 2-2. Real Exchange Rates vis-à-vis the United States
- 2-3. Multilateral and Bilateral Real Exchange Rates
- 2-4. Real Exchange Rates and Levels of Per Capita GDP
- 2-5. Changes in Real Exchange Rates and Per Capita GDP
- 2-6. Changes in Relative Prices of Nontradables and Per Capita GDP
- 2-7. Real Exchange Rates and Contributions of Proximate Determinants
- 2-8. Real Exchange Rates and Relative Prices Across Countries
- 3-1. Proportion of Exports That Are Manufactures
- 3-2. Proportion of Imports That Are Manufactures
- 3-3. Openness to Trade
- 3-4. Trade Between the United States and the Rest of the APEC Region
- 3-5. Import and Export Weights
- 4-1. Ratio of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to GDP
- 4-2. U.S. and Japanese FDI Outflows by Region
The following symbols have been used throughout this paper:
- … to indicate that data are not available;
- — to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist;
- - between years or months (for example, 1991–92 or January-June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
- / between years (for example, 1991/92) to indicate a crop or fiscal (financial) year.
“Billion” means a thousand million.
Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
The term “country,” as used in this paper, does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice; the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states, but for which statistical data are maintained and provided internationally on a separate and independent basis.
Glossary
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (members: Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan Province of China, Thailand, and the United States)
Foreign direct investment
International Comparison Project (United Nations)
Newly industrializing Asian economies (Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan Province of China)
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
Purchasing power parity
System of National Accounts (European Union, International Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, United Nations, and World Bank, 1993, System of National Accounts 1993 (Brussels/Luxembourg, New York, Paris, and Washington)
Preface
This Occasional Paper contains an overview followed by three sections analyzing exchange rate movements and their impact on trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (APEC) region. The three analytical sections were prepared by the Economic Modeling and External Adjustment Division of the Research Department, headed by Peter Isard, in response to a request made by the APEC ministers of finance. Steven Symansky and Tamim Bayoumi were also extensively involved in the preparation of the sections, and significant contributions were made by Leonardo Bartolini and Michael Klein. Takatoshi Ito, coauthor of the overview section, supervised the study and presented it to the Working Group of APEC Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in September 1995, and at the APEC Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting in October. The study was given further consideration by the finance and central bank deputies in February 1996, and a summary was presented to the finance ministers and central bank governors in March.
The authors received helpful comments from their colleagues in the Research Department and from staff in other IMF departments. They are grateful to Susanna Mursula for research assistance and to Norma Alvarado and Helen Hwang for secretarial assistance. James McEuen of the External Relations Department edited the manuscript and coordinated production of the publication.
The opinions expressed in the study are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IMF or its Executive Directors.
