World Economic and Financial Surveys

Regional Economic Outlook

Asia Pacific

Good Times, Uncertain Times:

A Time to Prepare

APR 18

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

©2018 International Monetary Fund

Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: International Monetary Fund.

Title: Regional economic outlook. Asia Pacific : good times, uncertain times, a time to prepare.

Other titles: Asia Pacific : good times, uncertain times, a time to prepare | Good times, uncertain times, a time to prepare | World economic and financial surveys

Description: [Washington, DC] : International Monetary Fund, 2018. | World economic and financial surveys, 0258–7440 | Apr. 2018. | Includes bibliographical references.

Identifiers: ISBN 9781484339886 (paper)

Subjects: LCSH: Economic forecasting—Asia. | Economic forecasting— Pacific Area. | Economic development—Asia. | Economic development—Pacific Area. | Asia—Economic conditions. | Pacific Area—Economic conditions.

Classification: LCC HC412.R445 2018

The Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific is published annually in the spring to review developments in the Asia-Pacific region. Both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF Management.

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Contents

• Definitions
• Executive Summary
• 1. Good Times, Uncertain Times: A Time to Prepare
  • Global Context
  • Regional Developments
  • Regional Outlook
  • Risks to the Outlook
  • Longer-Term Growth Prospects
  • Policy Recommendations
  • References
• 2. Low Inflation in Asia: How Long Will It Last?
  • Introduction and Main Findings
  • Recent Inflation Trends in Asia
  • Structural Drivers of Inflation
  • Why Is Inflation Becoming Less Sensitive to the Unemployment Gap?
  • How Well Anchored Are Inflation Expectations?
  • Global Factors
  • Trend Inflation
  • Conclusions and Policy Implications
  • References
• Boxes
  • 1.1 Rapid Credit Growth in Frontier and Developing Asian Economies
  • 1.2 Spillovers to Asia from the US Tax Reform
  • 1.3 Is Asia Ready for the Digital Revolution?
  • 2.1 The Disconnect between the Consumer and Producer Price Indices in China: Where Are Price Pressures Coming From?
  • 2.2 Japan’s Elusive Quest for Inflation